September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Portland did not have 2 tornadoes.

It was more like 2,000.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

60F and calm with the moon overhead. Pleasant night.

[GHweatherChris]

It was more like 2,000.

Wow, didn't even make the news...

[Requiem]

Portland did not have 2 tornadoes.

Portland proper did have two tornadoes. One on 7/1 that touched down in NE Portland, another that briefly touched down in far NW Portland (not sure if it’s the metro area per we, so let’s call it NW Oregon).

 

But I still haven’t received my proof from you. Where’s the ID and credit card info? No stool test?

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is completely different than its 12Z run.  

 

All signs of ridging are gone.    I would love to see the stats... because it sure seems like the GFS has been owning the ECMWF lately.  

[TacomaWaWx]

0.32” of rain yesterday, another 0.02” since midnight currently doing some light rain in Tacoma.

[TacomaWaWx]

00Z ECMWF is completely different than its 12Z run.

 

All signs of ridging are gone. I would love to see the stats... because it sure seems like the GFS has been owning the ECMWF lately.

Latest gfs run even wetter over the next 10 days. Ever since the latest forecast updates earlier this year that the euro has been 2 steps behind the gfs.

Latest Nws disc. Talking about record rainfall potentially Saturday/Sunday for Western Washington. Could be another similar system that rolls in early next week as well.

[El_Nina]

Wet morning. 0.17" so far, still misting at a good rate. 59 degrees.

[Blizzard777]

0.32” of rain yesterday, another 0.02” since midnight currently doing some light rain in Tacoma.

Picked up a total of .16 here

Low of 58 and currently sitting at 60

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up a total of .16 here

Low of 58 and currently sitting at 60

picked up 0.32” and another 0.07” since midnight this side of commencement bay. Looks like some blue skies to the SW now however.

[Omegaraptor]

 

06z GFS precip map. If this verifies, I think some locations could actually rival September 2013. Really strong with the second rain band in NW OR:

 

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF is completely different than its 12Z run.

 

All signs of ridging are gone. I would love to see the stats... because it sure seems like the GFS has been owning the ECMWF lately.

Haha. Good, ridges suck.

[TacomaWaWx]

C78536B2-EEDA-43FE-9EA1-B72391A4C05F.png

 

06z GFS precip map. If this verifies, I think some locations could actually rival September 2013. Really strong with the second rain band in NW OR:

 

6FEB139D-DDB3-49CD-A593-B2543200F4F8.png

Looks like anomalous rainfall for September. Already at 0.75” for the month which is over half of normal. Could triple that number in Tacoma over the next week. Some places might rival September 2013, but not here locally. Had 5.95” of rain that September!

[MossMan]

00Z ECMWF is completely different than its 12Z run.

 

All signs of ridging are gone. I would love to see the stats... because it sure seems like the GFS has been owning the ECMWF lately.

Looks like I am not jetsking on Chelan now...

[MossMan]

.61” since last evening. .11” since midnight.

 

58 degrees and cloudy currently.

[Blizzard777]

picked up 0.32” and another 0.07” since midnight this side of commencement bay. Looks like some blue skies to the SW now however.

Need to go check my bucket...might be some debris in it.

Now it’s reading .29. Could of swore it said .16 earlier or my eyes weren’t up yet. Anyhow that’s more inline with what others got.

[TT-SEA]

Haha. Good, ridges suck.

Yeah... some 75/45 days would be miserable in September.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00Z ECMWF is completely different than its 12Z run.  

 

All signs of ridging are gone.    I would love to see the stats... because it sure seems like the GFS has been owning the ECMWF lately.  

 

As long as we get some drought-busting rain it doesn't matter. Although, I hate to admit it, but things would probably green up more if we have some sunny days after this before fall really kicks into gear.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Grass has turned back green again here. Cloudy morning 61F.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah... some 75/45 days would be miserable in September.

That depends on who you ask lol. Most places should be above normal rainfall in a week from now, I wouldn’t be opposed to some early fall sunshine on the back end of the month. Wouldn’t suprise me at all if that’s what ended up happening.

[Jesse]

Surprisingly good soaking overnight. Close to .30” here.

 

Some very nice model trends the last 12 hours as well. Looks like the 06z GFS went in a similar direction as the 00z Euro.

[Jesse]

That depends on who you ask lol. Most places should be above normal rainfall in a week from now, I wouldn’t be opposed to some early fall sunshine on the back end of the month. Wouldn’t suprise me at all if that’s what ended up happening.

Several sunny days toward the last third of the month wouldn’t surprise me at all. A nice time of year to get a little sunshine, yesterday was beautiful down here.

[Jesse]

Looks like the 12Z GFS is following the same trend. No longwave ridging in sight at least through day 9.

 

That was a quick collapse, if it actually ends up verifying. I was basically thinking a large ridge building in late next week and lasting for who knows how long was a foregone conclusion.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Many of the models showed the front washing out overnight before it got to me, but woke up to moderate rain and 56 degrees. 0.17" in the bucket when I left for work. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For some reason Jesse implied Silver Falls had not had a good season for thunderstorms. This has easily be the most active summer for thunderstorms in the 8 years I have lived here. Especially the past 3 weeks or so. 

[Jesse]

For some reason Jesse implied Silver Falls had not had a good season for thunderstorms. This has easily be the most active summer for thunderstorms in the 8 years I have lived here. Especially the past 3 weeks or so. 

 

It was a "my location" joke.

 

And I believe it!

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs looks even wetter than the run earlier this morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

For some reason Jesse implied Silver Falls had not had a good season for thunderstorms. This has easily be the most active summer for thunderstorms in the 8 years I have lived here. Especially the past 3 weeks or so.

 

Most significant thunderstorm season in awhile up here as well. Have had 4 different thunderstorm days over the last month.

[El_Nina]

Mist is over and we ended with 0.21". Exaclty an inch for the month total now. Grass is turning very green.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is nice. If we can get some more good rains in the next week then I would not mind it drying out until the latter half of October. 

[Timmy]

12z gfs shows 4.29” of rain at pdx in the next 7 days.

[BLI snowman]

12z gfs shows 4.29” of rain at pdx in the next 7 days.

 

Historic if it comes close to verifying.

 

5 wettest Septembers in Portland (Downtown) back to 1871:

 

1. 2013, 6.85"

2. 1927, 5.52"

3. 1911, 5.19" 

4. 1969, 4.87"

5. 1977, 4.69"

 

Only one dud winter out of the bunch! And 4/5 had arctic air in the region by December 10, furthering the idea that an early start to the rainy season often portends earlier cold air movement in the winter.

[Blizzard777]

Is the Euro complying with the Gfs runs?

This amount of moisture will definitely wake up my sump pump under the house

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TacomaWaWx]

Historic if it comes close to verifying.

 

5 wettest Septembers in Portland (Downtown) back to 1871:

 

1. 2013, 6.85"

2. 1927, 5.52"

3. 1911, 5.19"

4. 1969, 4.87"

5. 1977, 4.69"

 

Only one dud winter out of the bunch! And 4/5 had arctic air in the region by December 10, furthering the idea that an early start to the rainy season often portends earlier cold air movement in the winter.

Lot of places have seen a pretty good amount of rain already. Gfs looks like a lot, definitely 2013ish. We will see how well this all verifies but it looks good for some pretty high September rain totals.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

Euro keeps the trough/rain party going right through the end of next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX is at about 1" on the month right now. 

[Kayla]

Euro keeps the trough/rain party going right through the end of next week.

 

Really remarkable reversal. Looking like a pretty broad trough at that so even I get in on the cool/wet air out here as well. I like it!

[Deweydog]

The last Friday September the 13th was in the midst of a MOIST month as well.

 

Another fun fact: Nearly all September 13th’s have been followed at some point by a Friday December 6th.