May 2022 Observations & Discussions

[Clinton]

The western half of the sub is set to see some severe weather beginning tomorrow, hope everyone stays safe if your traveling or headed out to an area lake.  It will be a windy weekend for mby wind gust tomorrow and Monday could reach 45mph.  Cold front will stall Monday and Tuesday giving KC their best shot of severe weather in last few years.

[Clinton]

Memorial Day looks like the biggest weather day as far as tornadoes over the holiday weekend.  Here is the forecast from the SPC:

Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 280742 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the Upper Midwest southward into the central Great Plains on Monday and Monday night. Tornadoes, perhaps a few strong tornadoes, large to giant hail, and severe gusts are possible. ...Upper Midwest into the central Great Plains... A potent mid-level shortwave trough will move through the base of a larger-scale trough --centered over the Great Basin-- from southeast CO northeastward to northern MN while evolving into a mid-level low by daybreak Tuesday. An associated 500 mb speed max will intensify during the day with 100 kt southwesterly flow progged over eastern Nebraska by the late afternoon. A cyclone will deepen as it moves from northern KS north-northeastward into eastern SD by mid evening before occluding. A dryline will extend south-southwestward from the lower to mid MO Valley into central KS and near the TX Panhandle/OK border. Isolated elevated thunderstorms are possible early Monday morning from remnant storms on the nose of a strong LLJ in the SD/NE/IA/MN region. This activity will likely dissipate during the morning as strong southerly flow advects richer low-level moisture northward into the Upper Midwest by midday. Model guidance indicates mid to upper 60s dewpoints from the Upper Midwest southward into IA. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching disturbance will likely lead to scattered storms initiating by the early to mid afternoon northeast of the northeastward-developing cyclone. Enlarged hodographs and strong shear through a deep layer will favor supercells, especially in the eastern Dakotas/western MN area during the afternoon. Tornadoes and large hail are possible with the more intense supercells. A few of the tornadoes may be strong given 300+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Additional storms are forecast to develop by the early evening across southern MN into IA with severe gusts becoming increasingly probable, in additional to a lingering hail and perhaps tornado risk. Farther south along the dryline, a capping inversion will weaken by the mid-late afternoon amidst a very unstable airmass (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Once the cap is breached, rapid supercell development is expected on the southern flank of a cluster of storms from southeastern NE into central KS. Large to giant hail is possible initially, and as the low-level flow increases during the 23-01z period, the risk for a tornado will correspondingly increase along with the risk for a strong tornado. Storms will probably consolidate during the evening as 850 mb flow increases and the risk for a tornado will gradually lessen by mid-late evening as the main threats transition to primarily a wind/hail threat into the overnight. ..Smith.. 05/28/2022

[Clinton]

May has been wetter than average around my area except for NE MO and the 0z Euro shows that trend will continue for the next 10 days.  Not sure when this started but Tropical Tidbits now has the 6 and 18z Euro available for free.

[Niko]

Plentiful sunshine atm w temps in the low 60s. Absolutely gorgeous outside. A lotta dew though on the grass, as Tom mentioned in his above post.

No rain in sight until the next cf arrives  and that is not until the following week, Wed or so.

[Timmy Supercell]

I was barely able to squeeze out a thunder yesterday. Probably not gonna record anymore until June. 

I'd say yesterday was my weakest one out of the year. 

Overcast and mild out today. Low of 58, might get to mid 70's.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS is very wet over the next two weeks. 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

Just took a morning B Day stroll around the neighborhood on this beautiful and gorgeous sunny morning.  There is heavy dew all over the grass.  Temps dipped into the upper 40's (48F).  Have a splendid day and enjoy the long weekend everyone!

Happy Birthday bud! Hope it's a good time. Enjoy your mid-90's, hehehe

[Tom]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Happy Birthday bud! Hope it's a good time. Enjoy your mid-90's, hehehe

Thank you bud!  About to head out and check out some night life.  Have a good night!

[Phil]

16 hours ago, Tom said:

Just took a morning B Day stroll around the neighborhood on this beautiful and gorgeous sunny morning.  There is heavy dew all over the grass.  Temps dipped into the upper 40's (48F).  Have a splendid day and enjoy the long weekend everyone!

Happy birthday brother!  

[Tom]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Holy moly guacamole... Got woken up to an absolutely deafening sound of large hail and torrential rain hitting the roof. The sky has been flashing non-stop for 20 mins. Easily the most lightning we've had so far this season. Seen some really incredible bolts. Also have had some absolute cracks of thunder break right overhead. 

Besides the derecho, this was easily one of the more intense storms we've experienced so far here. Pretty awesome. 

That was one hellova cell that tracked through your area...how big were the hail stones?  Much damage?  Hope you faired well out there.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sdrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=10&year=2022&month=5&day=28&hour=23&minute=40

 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73/49. There was 74% of possible sunshine. There was no rain fall. The overnight low here at my house was 55 and the current temperature is 58 with a few clouds. The average H/L for today is 74/53.  The record high for today is 94 set in 2018 and the record low is 32 set in 1966. Last year the H/L was 67/37. So it can get very warm and or very cold yet at this time of the year. Today will be the start of a expected 3 day warm up and there is a chance of temperatures reaching the upper 80's to maybe 90 in the next 3 days before dropping back down to the upper 60's to low 70's So just a brief warm spell. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Thick fog this morning! This is the first time I am experiencing warm season fog. 

57 and drizzling outside. 

[Timmy Supercell]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Holy moly guacamole... Got woken up to an absolutely deafening sound of large hail and torrential rain hitting the roof. The sky has been flashing non-stop for 20 mins. Easily the most lightning we've had so far this season. Seen some really incredible bolts. Also have had some absolute cracks of thunder break right overhead. 

Besides the derecho, this was easily one of the more intense storms we've experienced so far here. Pretty awesome. 

Sounds like you have scored the most points on storms out of all us! I wonder if any others in the area have gotten video. 

[Clinton]

Warm, humid, and windy this morning.  I have the AC back on after a nice long stretch of cool weather.  Storms really start cranking the next 3 days over the western and central sub it will be the first time this year KC will combine heat and a storm system at the same.  Tuesday looks to be the big day here.

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS
   INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Wisconsin
   southwestward into the lower Missouri Valley and into parts of the
   southern High Plains mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening.  There is
   a risk for large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a couple of
   tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...
   A powerful mid-level shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes
   will move into central Ontario by early evening.  An upstream
   disturbance over the Great Basin will move little while a belt of
   strong mid to upper-level flow extends northeastward from the Four
   Corners across the central High Plains and into the Upper Great
   Lakes.  A surface low initially near the MN/Ontario border will
   develop northeast, as a cold front pushes southeastward across
   portions of the western Great Lakes/central Great Plains and becomes
   positioned from the mid MS Valley into the northern TX Panhandle.  A
   dryline will extend southward from the front over the TX Panhandle
   through the TX South Plains.

   ...Upper Great Lakes southwestward to MO/KS...
   A surface front will be the focus for thunderstorm development on
   Tuesday afternoon as the mid-level disturbance moving into Ontario
   becomes increasingly displaced from the area.  Nonetheless, strong
   heating near the front and surface dewpoints ranging from the
   mid-upper 60s to lower 70s, will weaken the cap by mid-late
   afternoon.  The southern fringe of stronger mid- to high-level
   southwesterly flow will support 30-45 kt effective shear.  Storm
   coverage is forecast to be highest over MO and eastern KS where the
   risk for severe will correspond.  A mix of supercell and severe
   multicell modes will be capable of mainly a hail/wind risk.  The
   tornado risk is more tenuous and uncertain, but the rich moisture
   and some hodograph enlargement indicates the possibility for a
   couple of tornadoes may be highest over KS and western MO early in
   the convective life cycle.  The hail/wind risk will likely linger
   well into the evening as a few thunderstorm clusters evolve from the
   lower MO Valley into southeast KS.

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Holy moly guacamole... Got woken up to an absolutely deafening sound of large hail and torrential rain hitting the roof. The sky has been flashing non-stop for 20 mins. Easily the most lightning we've had so far this season. Seen some really incredible bolts. Also have had some absolute cracks of thunder break right overhead. 

Besides the derecho, this was easily one of the more intense storms we've experienced so far here. Pretty awesome. 

12z HRRR has you under the gun tonight, hope it doesn't get to bad.

[Timmy Supercell]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z HRRR has you under the gun tonight, hope it doesn't get to bad.

Enhanced Risks both today and tomorrow over there. Jealous.

[CentralNebWeather]

70 degrees with a 65 dew at 10 am. The highest dew we’ve had since probably sometime in September. Storms will be lurking in the area today, possibly just missing me to the Northwest. We’ll see. 

[Phil]

8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Holy moly guacamole... Got woken up to an absolutely deafening sound of large hail and torrential rain hitting the roof. The sky has been flashing non-stop for 20 mins. Easily the most lightning we've had so far this season. Seen some really incredible bolts. Also have had some absolute cracks of thunder break right overhead. 

Besides the derecho, this was easily one of the more intense storms we've experienced so far here. Pretty awesome. 

Awesome bro! I’m jealous af, haven’t seen any hail so far, and only one storm has met severe criteria to-date.

[OKwx2k4]

So Euro still holds on a 2011 style oven down here but wx models still painting rain surpluses in the near-term. I'm still leaning on some early thoughts I've had that it (drpught) retrogrades west/sw and so far that's proven to hold. I'm betting against extreme longterm heat or drought in the southeast and east TX. 

[Andie]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

So Euro still holds on a 2011 style oven down here but wx models still painting rain surpluses in the near-term. I'm still leaning on some early thoughts I've had that it (drpught) retrogrades west/sw and so far that's proven to hold. I'm betting against extreme longterm heat or drought in the southeast and east TX. 

I’ll take that forecast.  
it’s incredibly windy today and very warm.  90* at 7pm and gusts to 33mph.   
yeah. Literally roaring through the trees.  
So, anything to not live in a windy oven this summer will be welcomed.  

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

I believe this is our 3rd, maybe 4th, tornado watch of the season so far for my area. Currently 76 with 75% humidity and cloudy skies.

Prior to moving here I heard that Sioux Falls rarely gets tornadoes (outside of the 3 in one night in 2019, at which point a tornado hadn't struck the city for 18 years) but I guess I didn't realize the frequency of tornado watches.

Personally big hail, strong winds, lots of lightning - all good. Bring it on. Tornadoes, on the other hand, I don't really want anything to do with. Never care to experience one and originally never planned on living anywhere where tornadoes were possible. Although I would like to go tornado chasing at some point, from a long distance. 

Yeah tornado watches will rarely culminate in a tornado striking your backyard. The odds of that are exceptionally low even in the heart of Tornado Alley.  

I’ve probably been under 40-something tornado watches in my lifetime? None have resulted in a Tornado hitting here (though we’ve had a few close misses).

[Phil]

Heads up @hawkstwelve nasty sumbītch headed ur way.

[Phil]

Why isn’t the top one warned?  

[Phil]

Wait nm it is now.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Tornado sirens going off. Taking the family downstairs. Rotation on radar a couple miles north of me.

I would’ve been out filming it.  

[Tom]

Happy Memorial Day everyone!  The unofficial start to Summer has begun and the wx is looking mighty nice today.  Albeit a bit Hot, it ain't Humid at all.  I spent the evening last night sipping on a cocktail and enjoying the beautiful breeze.  I've been yearning for days & nights like these for a long time. 

Last night, I dropped off my aunt at ORD as she went back to Poland.  I was surprised how busy the airport was and the planes were landing and taking off frequently.  I dunno about you, but I love the smell of jet fuel and watching the planes land and takeoff.  Since I was a kid, I've always been mesmerized how these machines, that weigh so much, can fly in the sky with ease.  Living so close to airport certainly added to my joy and interest in planes and aviation.

[Tom]

@Clintonand KC crew under the gun for some big time training storms to finish off met Spring....

[Grizzcoat]

Don't post much in warmer months -- but I got a bad bad feeling about today/tonight in the Upper Midwest.  3KM nam anyone tonight at 9pm--- holy squall line--- can you say derecho for N.MN???

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 81/55. There was no rain fall and there was 68% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here at my house was 66 and the official low looks to have been 67. If it stays above 66 until midnight it will be one of the warmest minimums for any May 30th. At The current time it is 67 here at my house. The average H/L for today is 75/54. The record high for today is 92 set in 1919 and the record low is 34 set in 1996 and 1965. If it makes it in the upper 80's today will be one of the warmest May 30's on record

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clintonand KC crew under the gun for some big time training storms to finish off met Spring....

Looks like it might be a good soaker.  Models showing 1-3 inches.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Don't post much in warmer months -- but I got a bad bad feeling about today/tonight in the Upper Midwest.  3KM nam anyone tonight at 9pm--- holy squall line--- can you say derecho for N.MN???

 

Moderate risk with a significant tornado threat. 

311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
   MINNESOTA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the
   Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley southward into the
   central Plains today into tonight. Large to giant hail, 60-80 mph
   gusts, and tornadoes are probable, including the possibility for a
   couple of intense long-track tornadoes.

   ...Outbreak of Severe Storms and Tornadoes Likely Today Across Parts
   of Northeast South Dakota, Far Southeast North Dakota and Western
   and Northern Minnesota...

   ...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
   An upper-level low, and an associated powerful 90 to 100 knot
   mid-level jet, will eject quickly north-northeastward across the
   central and northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move
   northward across the eastern Dakotas. To the east of the surface low
   track, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place, with MLCAPE
   forecast to increase into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by late
   morning. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves into the
   central Plains this morning, scattered convection is forecast to
   initiate in central Nebraska. These storms are expected to increase
   in coverage, moving north-northeastward into eastern South Dakota by
   early afternoon. A complex of storms is expected to quickly
   organize, moving north-northeastward across northeastern South
   Dakota, far southeast North Dakota into western and northern
   Minnesota. Severe storms and tornadoes appear likely with this
   convective system from this afternoon into the early evening.

   Several factors are coming together for an outbreak of severe storms
   today across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi
   Valley. The first is that the system will be particularly organized,
   as the upper-level low rapidly deepens and the trough takes on a
   negative tilt. The second is that the exit region of the mid-level
   jet will be associated with a strong and focused band of large-scale
   ascent. The mid-level jet is forecast to move out of the base of the
   trough at nearly 50 knots, which will provide support for an
   outbreak. The third factor is that the mid-level and low-level jets
   will become coupled. This will strengthen lift and create strong
   deep-layer shear very favorable for severe storms. Intense
   supercells will be likely within a large convective cluster by
   afternoon. 

   As the low-level jet consolidates in west-central Minnesota to the
   east of the upper-level low, shear in the boundary layer will become
   favorable for tornadoes. Tornadoes will be most likely from
   northeast South Dakota north-northeastward across western Minnesota.
   Forecast soundings along this corridor, to the west of the low-level
   jet, have 0-3 km storm-relative helicities in the 350 to 450 m2/s2
   range. This, along with curved hodographs, will contribute to a
   potential for a few strong tornadoes. One or two long-track
   tornadoes will be possible as well. Both strong deep-layer shear and
   steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range, will be
   favorable for large hail. The more intense supercells will produce
   hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The cluster of storms
   is expected to gradually organize into a bowing line segment by late
   afternoon, moving across northwest and north-central Minnesota,
   where a swath of wind gusts in the 60 to 70 knot range appears
   likely.

[Timmy Supercell]

11 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I believe this is our 3rd, maybe 4th, tornado watch of the season so far for my area. Currently 76 with 75% humidity and cloudy skies.

Prior to moving here I heard that Sioux Falls rarely gets tornadoes (outside of the 3 in one night in 2019, at which point a tornado hadn't struck the city for 18 years) but I guess I didn't realize the frequency of tornado watches.

Personally big hail, strong winds, lots of lightning - all good. Bring it on. Tornadoes, on the other hand, I don't really want anything to do with. Never care to experience one and originally never planned on living anywhere where tornadoes were possible. Although I would like to go tornado chasing at some point, from a long distance. 

Due to the frequency of severe weather events out in the central and eastern US, I'd say only half of the Tornado Watches even verify. Boyd County has been in 2 of those since March but both of those events didn't have widespread enough reports. And it's hard to center my area as a main focus, the one issued on March 23rd here, had my county on the extreme southern boundary of it, and covered dozens of Ohio Counties. lol

My county doesn't have a big history with tornadoes either, it's usually a F0/1 that occurs somewhere outside city limits of Ashland, though occasionally there has been tornado damage in town. As you get closer to I-75 and west of there, there are more towns and cities with richer tornado history. 

[Timmy Supercell]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Tornado sirens going off. Taking the family downstairs. Rotation on radar a couple miles north of me.

I bet you had some adrenaline going! I know we have sirens here but they have not sounded yet for a storm here.

[CentralNebWeather]

Went out to our local cemetery for the Memorial Day service. Cloudy, windy and chilly. Temp of around 60 with a strong north wind made it feel like October. People had coats and sweatshirts on. Have a safe Memorial Day. 

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, Phil said:

Why isn’t the top one warned?  

Ive saw several of these while watching over the last 2 years at night that i thought warranted warning status. I thought that was the whole point of radar determination in absence of spotters or in areas like mine where its more dangerous due to hills, corners and trees.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow getting nailed multiple times in one day @hawkstwelve!

Post a shelfie if you get a chance!

[Timmy Supercell]

The 3rd or 4th Tornado Watch to include Sioux Falls. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This doesn't sound good... Tornado potential appears to be increasing...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0977.html

How did last night’s storm perform there?

[james1976]

I'm up in the TC. The NWS up here is talking about a severe weather outbreak later on. All modes