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May 2022 Observations & Discussions


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The GFS & GEFS is hinting that May is looking dangerous with Supercell action across Northern Texas, most of Oklahoma & Kansas for most of the days in the month, the GEFS has really taken note of it for most of the month.

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lezak mentioned another frost possible in May.  Where's the warmth uggg!

Yup, def not what the doc ordered...outside of those down in TX/OK/NE and prob skirting your area and KC, real nice weather will be suppressed for the southern folks through mid MAY until it breaks down a bit and allow a warmer pattern later in May.

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The LR signals I'm seeing during Week 2-3 is a major trough and very chilly temps shaping up for the season. Those trees will not be budding anytime soon (except those from KC on south).  Man, what an ugly month this is looking for a lot of the eastern CONUS.  I could see some peeps still experiencing Frost/Freeze advisories if what I see does happen.  My target period is the Week of the 15th for a strong push of chilly air out of Canada along with a dominant NW Flow pattern.  Let's see if that happens.

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How do we open May???  We flip the script for NE peeps but continue the "cool" and sub normal pattern.  With the good, comes the ugly....unfortunately, that's what your going to have to deal with in this pattern.  Gosh, I could see Record cold highs for @CentralNebWeathercome May 2nd.  Both GFS/EURO suggesting some accumulating snow in parts of NW NE as we open up May.

 

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0z Euro loading it up....it could become to much of a good thing, however, so maybe ya'll should tell everyone to maybe cut back on the prayers??  I counted 4 troughs lining up like a symphony across the central ag belt region.  Wouldn't this be a wonderful pattern next cold season?

1.png

 

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32 minutes ago, Tom said:

How do we open May???  We flip the script for NE peeps but continue the "cool" and sub normal pattern.  With the good, comes the ugly....unfortunately, that's what your going to have to deal with in this pattern.  Gosh, I could see Record cold highs for @CentralNebWeathercome May 2nd.  Both GFS/EURO suggesting some accumulating snow in parts of NW NE as we open up May.

 

image.png

 

0z Euro loading it up....it could become to much of a good thing, however, so maybe ya'll should tell everyone to maybe cut back on the prayers??  I counted 4 troughs lining up like a symphony across the central ag belt region.  Wouldn't this be a wonderful pattern next cold season?

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Any moisture is welcome. Local forecasts call for multiple chances in the coming days. Dew Point of 52 this morning with dew on the cars. Don’t remember the last time I’ve seen that. Hopefully good moisture available for the storms tomorrow afternoon. 

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18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS lol.  Summer not coming soon.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_30.png

That's just cruel...if Chi see's any snow falling in May, you'll see plenty of social media meme's and rants!

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This is going to get a LOT of people excited! I've not seen anything like this in a while! 
@Andie@CentralNebWeather@snowstorm83@OKwx2k4@Tom @Hawkeye@hawkstwelve

610prcp_new.thumb.gif.439b08f49dacfe1be5e56ffc4b5d53dd.gif220980997_precip_probhazards_d8_14_contours(1).thumb.png.884a290a648f0d155368b33d261389b7.png

(Apologies in advance for those I've not listed, there's too many to list at once!)

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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The GFS and GDPS are brutal through the first week of May.  The blocking will keep the cold dumping down into the midwest.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Despite what guidance looks like at the moment, I’m more concerned about a very hot/dry summer than a cool/wet one.

The tropical-ET relationships change significantly during mid-May. The low pass state that produces cool anomalies now ends up favoring a very warm outcome during the second half of May. 

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Sorry to those closer to the Lakes but we've had plenty of warm days out here so I'm looking forward to the cooler and wetter stretch 😂 Also the A/C in my car has been acting funny so that's fun. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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6 hours ago, bud2380 said:

So many drought stricken areas would see significant relief if this pans out.  Sure hope it does.  Not that I like the pattern at all.  

 

qpf_acc.us_c.png

Do I see DFW getting 7-10 inches of rainfall?

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Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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The first 3 weeks are typically North Texas’s wettest.  But this looks very good.  Ranchers, farmers, gardeners will all celebrate.  
Lakes will fill for the summer.  
All really good news.  After this past year it’s welcomed.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Do I see DFW getting 7-10 inches of rainfall?

Looks like 6” per Buds post. Good nevertheless!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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When nature decides to "flip the script" for the Heartland of the Nation...this map will be noticeably different by June 1st east of the Rockies...W/C TX may be the exception, however....

current_usdm.png

 

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NWS Hastings disco for the next week looks wet. 

Progressive flow will provide a series of waves for precip chances for the rest of the forecast. Shortwave ridging will help keep Sunday dry and warmer from today, but more rain is on the way late Sunday night/Monday with the next wave, and a closed low associated with it aloft. The surface low will track east, across central/southern Kansas, far enough south to keep any severe risk outside of the area. Conditions will be rather cool with plenty of cool air on the cold side of the system to give us highs in the 40s for Monday. With subsequent waves giving us rain chances on Wednesday through much of the rest of the week, cool and damp weather will prevail for most of this upcoming forecast.

 

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May 1st 2021- KDSM high of 87F.

Forecast high for May 1st at KDSM-  56F.

Currently 50F and raw with drizzle and 40mph gusty SW winds-- that hard to do this late in the year.

I heat my house with wood. Currently have a fire going. Only time later is May of 2013'.

 

PXL_20201019_154910913~2.jpg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

May 1st 2021- KDSM high of 87F.

Forecast high for May 1st at KDSM-  56F.

Currently 50F and raw with drizzle and 40mph gusty SW winds-- that hard to do this late in the year.

I heat my house with wood. Currently have a fire going. Only time later is May of 2013'.

 

PXL_20201019_154910913~2.jpg

I heated with wood 2009 to 2021..  many  times into  late april or may.  So glad i dont now!  Here in my area it would have been relentless  work!  I have only opened  a window 2 times for few hours! Furnace runs daily!

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⛈️

KJKL_loop (10).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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9 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

Nice to see this updated and mirrors what I've been thinking for quite some time.  I'm glad to see this pattern flip on a dime for your region and others.  Good luck this week!

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Only got to 57 this morning, dark clouds and it has started sprinkling. That line was breaking up in this corner of the state not surprisingly. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Just when I thought the t'storms were skipping around me, flash and boom just now!

Raining pretty good out there.

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Welcome to May!! Looking back at April it was indeed a cool and wet month. The mean at Grand Rapids was 43.6° that is -4.0 from the 30 year average mean. The high for the month was a very mild 82 on the 23rd and the low was 23 on the 2nd. Only 8 days all month were warmer than average and 22 where below average. There was a total of 5.19" of rain fall. There was just 0.4" of snow fall. It was also cooler and wetter then average at Muskegon with a mean of 44.1 and a departure of -2.7 they recorded 4.94" of rain and had 3.3" of snow fall. Lansing had a mean of 45.8 for a departure of -1.2 at Lansing there was less rain but they still had 3.53" and 0.5" of snow fall.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/46 with some light rain and a east wind it felt colder then that. Overnight some heavy rain with thunderstorms moved in and here at my house a total of 1.12" of rain fell the official amount for GRR was 1.01" The overnight low here was 47 and at this time with blue sky to the west it is 53.

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Other than a couple of highs near 90 last month, I would consider April to be a rather temperate month with lots of days not even breaking 70+ in there. I don't really know the averages well. And seems like KY is doing good on rainfall.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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63 and 100% humidity.

Things sure greened up nicely on this street. When it dries out we're hiring someone to keep up the property. The back section is very different from the other house otherwise I'd do it myself. 

IMG_4907.JPG

IMG_4923.JPG

IMG_4909.JPG

IMG_4906.JPG

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The Monday night/Tuesday system had looked like 1+" of rain across much of Iowa, but models have been steadily trending south and lowering totals.  There are still a couple models showing 1+" here, but now it's looking more like 0.25"-0.75" across the state.

Here's the Euro

image.thumb.png.80f1dce51e918d0a282e69f48e2b3bc0.png

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 hours ago, Clinton said:

Excessive rainfall possible in western MO this week will cause flooding with some rivers already swollen.

 Day 11 image not available

Yeah. Not going to be good down here in the Ozarks. That and the coupled threat of high priority severe threats of all types over the next 10 and it's not ideal.

Thankful, very much, for the rainfall in Nebraska and TX specifically. Was getting to be a horrible situation and still is for many areas of Nebraska.

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16 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Other than a couple of highs near 90 last month, I would consider April to be a rather temperate month with lots of days not even breaking 70+ in there. I don't really know the averages well. And seems like KY is doing good on rainfall.

April is a cooler, more tolerable month than October. I usually lop it in with the “cool season” months (though it doesn’t always work that way).

The way I think of seasons here:
Warm season: roughly 5/15 to 10/1
Cool season: roughly 11/1 to 4/15. 
In-between/variable: 10/1 to 11/1 and 4/15 to 5/15.

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15 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

63 and 100% humidity.

Things sure greened up nicely on this street. When it dries out we're hiring someone to keep up the property. The back section is very different from the other house otherwise I'd do it myself. 

IMG_4907.JPG

IMG_4923.JPG

IMG_4909.JPG

IMG_4906.JPG

I love that porch, man. You’re gonna have a blast watching the nighttime lightning shows during the summer months.

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 58/46. There was 0.02" of rain fall here at my house. There was more sunshine at Lansing to the east where the high did reach 63. With lots of clouds the overnight low was 47 and my house, GRR and Lansing. 

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Rise n Shine from Las Vegas…spent the past couple days here and heading back to AZ later today.  It was a great time and the weather was perfect albeit a bit breezy the last couple of nights.  
 

Looks like a lot of rain heading for Chi this week.  Geeze, what a wet spring so far.

 

 

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While it has been a cold April here in much of west Michigan it has been even colder off to the north. At Duluth where records have been kept since 1875 the high for the month was just 50 that was the 2nd coldest high for any April at Duluth with the 49 in 1917 being the coldest. While there has been some discussion as to why GR has been colder than Lansing to the east. To the east of Duluth at Ashland, WI the high for April was a warmer 64 and to the east of Ashland at Marquette the high for the month was 73. As for the departures from average at Duluth it was -5.7° at Ashland it was -3.5 and at Marquette it was -2.2. Remember all 3 locations are on Lake Superior.  So I guess it was much worse if one lived way up north

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