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May 2022 Observations & Discussions


Iceresistance

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Indeed, I think the Euro gets a bit overdone with temps in the D5+ range but with the blocking waning and the SER flexing its muscle this may end up come close.  The EPS is very warm next Mon-Fri and even extends the warmth through the following weekend while the GEFS cut it short and cooling filters in by Thu/Fri.  Let the battle begin again.

I have no faith in the GFS/GEFS during a pattern like this. Always trapping ULLs in the NPAC and reverting to the +TNH pattern.

We’ll see though!

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"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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2 hours ago, Andie said:

We get those non stop roaring winds virtually every year now.  March-April can get so windy people become short tempered. Can’t escape it even inside. A lot of collision aloft. 
I’ve seen this more and more the past 10 yrs  

Yes! It was like every time i was outside, even when it was warm, it was just like being annoyed and pushed around the whole time. I never knew wind could be so annoying. It was remarkable, though.

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I forgot to check my rain gauge before I left the house this morning, but I'm seeing radar estimates and local airport reports of over .75", so we got another good soaking over here.  And the rain is just lingering around, so looks like we've got at least a couple more hours to go.  

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The Euro has highs well into the 80s and pushing 90 for much of next week with dew points surging into the low 70s!  It's a miracle!  And naturally we went from extended winter to summer, with no nice spring weather in between.  But I'll gladly take heat and humidity over what we've had.  

 

 

 

 

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Texans are dragging out the hoodies and light coats today.  It got down into the 40’s last night and is a really chilly damp 53 right now.  

They're forecasting a high of 70 but with this cloud cover and no wind it will have to work hard to get there.  

That Front had some punch to it.  We’re expecting more rain. We’ll see if that happens.   
Dang!  It’s chilly out there!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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46 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The Euro has highs well into the 80s and pushing 90 for much of next week with dew points surging into the low 70s!  It's a miracle!  And naturally we went from extended winter to summer, with no nice spring weather in between.  But I'll gladly take heat and humidity over what we've had.  

 

 

 

 

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I don’t see this happening next week lol. Mid 70 dew points all the way up to Minnesota and Wi in early may is extremely rare. The Euro has it going from cold and snow to mid July in the matter of a few days lol

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My rain total is 1.23", at the high end of the model range.  There were multiple models that dropped us down to 0.2-0.5" at one point.  Even last night the short-term models/CAMs were in the 0.6-0.8" range.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I don’t see this happening next week lol. Mid 70 dew points all the way up to Minnesota and Wi in early may is extremely rare. The Euro has it going from cold and snow to mid July in the matter of a few days lol

I'm sure the specifics are overdone, but the general idea appears clear, with agreement from the GFS and Canadian that we will have very warm and seasonably humid air next week, which will feel great.  

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This morning's Euro has a LOW temp here next Tuesday morning of only 75º.  🏝️

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Getting some loud thunder tonight under the inversion. Been ongoing for about an hour now.

Looks like there are more rounds incoming as well.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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61*.  
High of 84* and severe thunderstorms today.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Same Ol' story continues as we open up May for Chitown...setting a new record low for sunshine (0%) for the 1st 3 days of the month...BUT...Summer is around the corner.  I could already see the city buzzing with peeps and people prepping their gardens.  The smells of Summer will certainly be in the Air.

 

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 52/44. There was 0.68" of rain fall that brings the monthly total to 0.85" and for the year the total is now at 15.17" that is 3.75" above average for this period in the year. Last year as of May 3rd Grand Rapids only had 6.70". The first 4 month of 2022 have been very cloudy, cool and wet. At Grand Rapids the first 4 months have been 2.0° colder than the 30 year average and -2.65° colder than the new 15 year average. The official overnight low at GRR was 42 and the overnight low here at my house was 41. At the current time it is sunny and 48 here at my house. It will soon be time to enjoy some much warmer temperature as we head into next week.

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Models are locked into summer next week, with no more cold dumps in sight.  🥳 🌞

It's still up in the air how much rain we'll get Thu/Fri.  The Euro continues to be the most bullish with 1-2", but a few other models (GFS) are keeping the second spoke of energy south of us and are much drier.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Same Ol' story continues as we open up May for Chitown...setting a new record low for sunshine (0%) for the 1st 3 days of the month...BUT...Summer is around the corner.  I could already see the city buzzing with peeps and people prepping their gardens.  The smells of Summer will certainly be in the Air.

 

It is finally sunny and pleasant in Eastern Iowa.  It makes such a difference.  Even though it's cool, the wind is light so it feels so much nicer today.  The next two days look awful, before we finally will turn things around this weekend, before next week's heat wave.  

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Bring out the Canoe for our OK folks.... @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

It's going to get bumpy later today thru the night.....

hrrr_apcpn_scus_48.png

 

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No need to worry, I live on a hill and I'm currently in Orlando, Florida!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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I thought I would add that I’m battling a migraine today. I often do when there’s a strong system on the horizon.  Barometric pressure is a trigger and I’ve been dealing with this baby for 2 days. It’s worse today and I can tell this is a strong system.  

I love Spring, but Spring doesn’t love me.
Anyone else in this boat? 
 

80*. Storms should start firing around 4 pm.  
 

Edit:  5 pm. No rain yet. They’re moving it later this evening. Overcast and very warm all day.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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On 5/3/2022 at 7:54 AM, Andie said:

We get those non stop roaring winds virtually every year now.  March-April can get so windy people become short tempered. Can’t escape it even inside. A lot of collision aloft. 
I’ve seen this more and more the past 10 yrs  

The day I was riding east out of OKC last November wind was wipping the uHaul and seemed like it was hard to keep a straight drive on I-40. I hardly know much about Oklahoma climate. But just to say, most of the travel from OR to KY was calm except for when I passed through OK. Some of the roads there need maintenancing outside of the big city I should probably mention too.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Well, had some thunderstorms near Ashland a few times yesterday. Nothing really strong. 

After the Tornado Watch expired there continued to be storms at night and had some flashing around 11pm. 

Mild today and was overcast pretty much all day.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The Thu/Fri system is a battle between the Euro and the CAMs.  The Euro, while gradually bringing the rain totals down across Iowa, still has near 1" in Cedar Rapids as of the 18z run.  Meanwhile, the 3k NAM and HRRR show heavy convection well down in Missouri sucking up all the moisture.  Both models now spit out only about 0.1" here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Ice out

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Excellent!!! A nice Carl Kiekhaefer Mercury!!! I used to have a 1955 9.9hp that was all white. It would smoke anything now days in that HP range but not so friendly on the environment.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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We lost out last night but storms in the forecast today and some will be severe with hail and high winds.   
We’re at 70

Humidity 90%.  Pressure 29.79.
Talk about damp out there.  My storm headache is in full bloom.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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