May 2022 Observations & Discussions

[westMJim]

39 minutes ago, Tom said:

BUT...Summer is around the corner. 

yes, since around mid March it has been cold and wet here in the Great Lakes area and it now looks like a good patten change to much nicer weather for a while.

[james1976]

Yup my grids have mid 80s next week. Things will really be growing after all the moisture we've had.

[Hawkeye]

Models are locked into summer next week, with no more cold dumps in sight.   

It's still up in the air how much rain we'll get Thu/Fri.  The Euro continues to be the most bullish with 1-2", but a few other models (GFS) are keeping the second spoke of energy south of us and are much drier.

[bud2380]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Same Ol' story continues as we open up May for Chitown...setting a new record low for sunshine (0%) for the 1st 3 days of the month...BUT...Summer is around the corner.  I could already see the city buzzing with peeps and people prepping their gardens.  The smells of Summer will certainly be in the Air.

 

It is finally sunny and pleasant in Eastern Iowa.  It makes such a difference.  Even though it's cool, the wind is light so it feels so much nicer today.  The next two days look awful, before we finally will turn things around this weekend, before next week's heat wave.  

[Clinton]

More chances of severe weather next week as temps and humidity levels rise.

 

 

[Iceresistance]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Bring out the Canoe for our OK folks.... @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

It's going to get bumpy later today thru the night.....

 

 

 

No need to worry, I live on a hill and I'm currently in Orlando, Florida!

[Andie]

I thought I would add that I’m battling a migraine today. I often do when there’s a strong system on the horizon.  Barometric pressure is a trigger and I’ve been dealing with this baby for 2 days. It’s worse today and I can tell this is a strong system.  

I love Spring, but Spring doesn’t love me.
Anyone else in this boat? 
 

80*. Storms should start firing around 4 pm.  
 

Edit:  5 pm. No rain yet. They’re moving it later this evening. Overcast and very warm all day.  

[Clinton]

Rain with a couple of rumbles of thunder have moved in with a temperature of 54.

[Clinton]

Steady rain has produced about a 1/2 inch of rain so far.  Heavier rain expected overnight and tomorrow afternoon.  Can't wait to the sun again.

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Steady rain has produced about a 1/2 inch of rain so far.  Heavier rain expected overnight and tomorrow afternoon.  Can't wait to the sun again.

Just wait till it hits 90 next week and the humidity will feel awful outside lol

[mlgamer]

lol...I think the NWS in KC was having some fun with the Star Wars May the 4th meme in their weather story graphic today.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

On 5/3/2022 at 7:54 AM, Andie said:

We get those non stop roaring winds virtually every year now.  March-April can get so windy people become short tempered. Can’t escape it even inside. A lot of collision aloft. 
I’ve seen this more and more the past 10 yrs  

The day I was riding east out of OKC last November wind was wipping the uHaul and seemed like it was hard to keep a straight drive on I-40. I hardly know much about Oklahoma climate. But just to say, most of the travel from OR to KY was calm except for when I passed through OK. Some of the roads there need maintenancing outside of the big city I should probably mention too.

[Timmy Supercell]

Well, had some thunderstorms near Ashland a few times yesterday. Nothing really strong. 

After the Tornado Watch expired there continued to be storms at night and had some flashing around 11pm. 

Mild today and was overcast pretty much all day.

[OKwx2k4]

13 hours ago, Tom said:

Bring out the Canoe for our OK folks.... @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

It's going to get bumpy later today thru the night.....

 

 

 

Bumpy is correct. Very correct.

[Hawkeye]

The Thu/Fri system is a battle between the Euro and the CAMs.  The Euro, while gradually bringing the rain totals down across Iowa, still has near 1" in Cedar Rapids as of the 18z run.  Meanwhile, the 3k NAM and HRRR show heavy convection well down in Missouri sucking up all the moisture.  Both models now spit out only about 0.1" here.

[hawkstwelve]

Quite a bit of CAPE near the end of the Euro.

Almost time for warmer temps, higher humidity, and stronger storms!

[Madtown]

Ice out

[Clinton]

Steady rain this evening has added up to .90 inches.  

[Grizzcoat]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Ice out

Excellent!!! A nice Carl Kiekhaefer Mercury!!! I used to have a 1955 9.9hp that was all white. It would smoke anything now days in that HP range but not so friendly on the environment.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has really dried out for most C and E IA for this late week system.

[GDR]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro has really dried out for most C and E IA for this late week system.

Proof that summer is right around the corner!!

[Clinton]

1.3 inches has fallen so far.  A break in the rain is expected this morning before more rain and thunderstorms move back in later this afternoon and tonight.

[Andie]

We lost out last night but storms in the forecast today and some will be severe with hail and high winds.   
We’re at 70

Humidity 90%.  Pressure 29.79.
Talk about damp out there.  My storm headache is in full bloom.  

[Hawkeye]

5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro has really dried out for most C and E IA for this late week system.

The large MCS activity down south has completely stolen our Thursday/Friday rain system.  All models have now removed nearly all rain for most of Iowa.  Instead of a two-day 1-2" soaker, models are showing scattered very light rain and drizzle totaling 0.1" at most.

[Clinton]

After this storm passes things might dry out in the KC area for a week.  I say might because the Euro is nasty muggy, my grass will be ripping.  Hopefully the Euro is overdone but check out the Heat Index values forecasted for mid week.

It will be interesting to see what happens next weekend when a very strong storm meets all of this energy.

[Tom]

It's going to get toasty here tomorrow and Sat as the valley will likely top 100F both days.  The avg date for the 1st 100F day is May 2nd so right about on schedule.

The Euro has backed off on the Heat into later next week/weekend over the eastern Sub.  It has a couple of Hot days for Tue/Wed but then more reasonable temps in the 70's/80's.  I'm really curious if the DP's surge into the 70's even without any vegetation blooming.

 

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

I'm fine if things dry out a bit around here. Water standing in the ditches on my way to work this morning. Really looking forward to the 80s next week.

[Tom]

I see a LR signal that the 2nd half of May is going to turn very wet across the ag belt which is a concern for the farmers.  Impacts for the Memorial Day weekend at this time is somewhat wet and seasonal except up near the GL's where it looks drier...signs that a SER will begin to build, esp over FL, where I predict HEAT for those folks over the MDW holiday week.

JMA week 3-4 mirrors the idea...

 

Temps overall look seasonal...

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Some closeup footage of that Andover tornado. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 62/42 and for a change there was 80% of possible sunshine. The official overnight low was 40, here at my house the low was 39. For one of the few this in recent days the low at Lansing was colder than at Grand Rapids the official overnight low at Lansing was 36. At he current time there is hazy sun and a reading of 49 here at my house.
It now looks like there will several days of summer like temperatures starting next week. That will cause a great leap in the the green up of much of Michigan. The latest runs of the CFSv2 show a kind of up and down look for the rest of May.

[Tom]

49 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some closeup footage of that Andover tornado. 

That guy has some guts being that close  and filming!  Kiddos to him for capturing such amazing footage so up close.  Wowza!

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[MIKEKC]

Spring has been very cold in KC!!! Over 3 degrees below average since March 20th. Next week's heat will get our attention. I'm also 3 inches below average on moisture since April 1st. Had some good moisture this week in my part of KC, but nothing big, just .69 inches. KC south certainly had more.  We were actually very dry before Friday's rain hit late in the evening.  Some of the fescue yards are just now coming out of dormancy and growing. Cool season grasses(blue and rye grass have been growing, especially the last 2 weeks)Vegetation has been very slow to get going, next week should send it into overdrive.

 

I welcome the warmth, I have been in winter attire every weekend for baseball tournaments. I kept saying, did we sign up for winter league....miserable to coach baseball when its cold. Finally, baseball forecast for this weekend, 75 Saturday and 85 Sunday, let's go!!

64 days ago, the LRC cycle length, we had a very warm start to March, that is cycling through next week. Following that very warm start March 1st-5th, we had 8 days well below average and (2) snow storms. So, look for another cool down next weekend per the LRC with storm systems in the nations mid-section. Should be plenty dry starting tomorrow through next Friday or so...

[Andie]

Looks like the storm and hail jumped over me!   And the headache is easing.  
Crazy.  
 

 

[snowstorm83]

It seems like this system is kind of a dud, definitely not looking like 1-1.5". And we're going to quickly flip to hot and dry, relying on storm chances for precip. I'm going on a trip to Cancun on the 18th, so at least the temperature shift shouldn't be much of an adjustment by then 

[Iceresistance]

17 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Some of the roads there need maintenance outside of the big city I should probably mention too.

It's not as bad as I-65 in Alabama! The road condition there is terrible! Especially at and south of Birmingham.

[Niko]

Hello from New York City. Been here since last Monday for pleasure and a little business. Weather is not bad. Temps are mostly in the 60s and 70s. Although, yesterday was a cool dreary day w temps in the 50s. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

It seems like this system is kind of a dud, definitely not looking like 1-1.5". And we're going to quickly flip to hot and dry, relying on storm chances for precip. I'm going on a trip to Cancun on the 18th, so at least the temperature shift shouldn't be much of an adjustment by then 

NWS Hastings with a huge swing and a miss.  We were in the 1-2" range just 24 hours ago.  Their forecast had us move our track meet from today to tomorrow and many schools moved activities.  We got 0.10".   Hard to miss it that badly.  It has been in the low 50's with no rain. Would have been a perfect day for a track meet.  Our AD and track coaches couldn't believe how nice today turned out to be.  I will say the GFS was spot on again, never showing much rain at all here.  I kept wondering where Hastings was getting these large, forecasted amounts.  Fortunately, we got our rain earlier this week, but hate to miss out when we are still in drought conditions.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’m thinking the severe weather threat for this weekend into next week is really starting to diminish.

The ridge in the east has nearly stopped any advance of the west trough keeping all the good upper level flow well west of where the heat, humidity, and CAPE are forecast to be. Have to hope for some small scale shortwave trough to kick out of the big trough and be timed correctly otherwise no bueno for severe storms.

[OmahaSnowFan]

We’ve only added .11” of rain with this current system but I had 1.31” with the early week rain. Cannot wait to see sunshine and feel the warmth returning starting this weekend 

[Iceresistance]

53 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I’m thinking the severe weather threat for this weekend into next week is really starting to diminish.

The ridge in the east has nearly stopped any advance of the west trough keeping all the good upper level flow well west of where the heat, humidity, and CAPE are forecast to be. Have to hope for some small scale shortwave trough to kick out of the big trough and be timed correctly otherwise no bueno for severe storms.

Also factoring the trough uncertainty since it's slowing down.

[Thunder98]

Huntsville, TX received 2.50” in just 2 hours and right now its still pouring buckets over there.

 

 

[Phil]

Bowling ball ULL will make for a cool, wet weekend here.

Thunderstorm chances look decent tomorrow night. Severe weather not out of the question along and south of the WF.

Strong E/NE fetch off the cool water over the weekend will keep us in the clouds with highs in the low 50s and plenty of rain showers. Need the rain badly, so this is welcome.

[Madtown]

Freaking summer time boys n girls..69 degrees!!!! only snow piles left! Ice out today!

[snowstorm83]

11 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

It seems like this system is kind of a dud, definitely not looking like 1-1.5". And we're going to quickly flip to hot and dry, relying on storm chances for precip. I'm going on a trip to Cancun on the 18th, so at least the temperature shift shouldn't be much of an adjustment by then 

Well I guess we got lucky. We’ve picked up 0.75” in the past several hours just from a random band of moderate rain training over Lincoln. 

[Tom]

Happy Friday!  #TGIF....It does appear to me that the C Plains/MW region will experience a Summer-like storm pattern as the S Plains ridge builds and storms could fire up on the periphery of the ridge.  This should spark some "Ridge Riders" or even a nocturnal MCS next week.  The Op models are starting to sorta hint at this pattern but its to far out.  I would imagine as we get closer in time that the CAM's start sniffing this out.  

The 0z Euro is still suggesting DP's well into the 70's next TUE providing the juice to fire up any storm development.  I'd say the Tue pm-Thu period is the one to watch for areas near E NE/IA/MO/IL.

 

CAPE values from both the EURO/GFS are rather high...

 

 

[Andie]

Looks like the storm and hail jumped over me!   And the headache is easing.  
Crazy.  
A real taste of summer hits this week with temps in the mid to high 90’s   
I'm just not ready for this   
 

But it’s 56* now!!

 

[Clinton]

The last 2 days produced 1.5 inches of rain and I received 3.15 inches over the last 7 days.  Big rainfall totals over SW MO and Oklahoma.  Temperatures look to go from mid March to mid July over the next 4 days, it's going to be a shock.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

60-61 and thunderstorm a few miles away in Ashland. The airport isn't reporting thunder. SMH

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another cool day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 59/40. The overnight low here in MBY was 50 and at the current time there is light rain falling and I have a reading of 51. After what looks to be a nice spring weekend it still looks like we swing into some summer like weather. The current forecasted highs in the upper 70's to low 80's will be very welcomed. While at the current time spring growth is behind  schedule we will catch up rapidly next week. While the highs next week will be well above average at this time it looks like they will be below record levels. And as for using the term "heatwave" or "blowtorch" will I guess that is up to ones perspective. As stated it will be warmer than average but do you really want to call temperatures in the low 80's a heatwave? If so then the cold we had a week or so ago should have been called a "cold wave"