May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Doinko]

Wednesday seems to be trending cloudier, so maybe it won't hit 80 at PDX. I'm just hoping for the new record of latest first 80!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Wednesday seems to be trending cloudier, so maybe it won't hit 80 at PDX. I'm just hoping for the new record of latest first 80!

I’m still waiting for my first 20°C (68°F)…

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m still waiting for my first 20°C (68°F)…

High water mark this season here is 73 on 4/7. The max this month was just 71 which is impressive. Literally only one above average day this month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

High water mark this season here is 73 on 4/7. The max this month was just 71 which is impressive. Literally only one above average day this month. 

Our warmest temp so far is 74. The latest I have gone into the season with a high that cool. Even have 2011 beat at this point.

[Doinko]

Since summer starts in two days, what does everyone think it will be like? I'm thinking we will at least have a cool June.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Our warmest temp so far is 74. The latest I have gone into the season with a high that cool. Even have 2011 beat at this point.

The May max in 2011 was 69 here so not quite as cold as 2011 but still pretty darn impressive. The spring of 2011 was impressive but I think this one was very memorable on it’s own. Haven’t seen snowfall here in April in a long time…and that snowstorm down south last month was absolutely incredible. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Since summer starts in two days, what does everyone think it will be like? I'm thinking we will at least have a cool June.

I am pretty sure June will be a significant improvement over May.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am pretty sure June will be a significant improvement over May.  

May was pretty great TBH.

[Doinko]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The May max in 2011 was 69 here so not quite as cold as 2011 but still pretty darn impressive. The spring of 2011 was impressive but I think this one was very memorable on it’s own. Haven’t seen snowfall here in April in a long time…and that snowstorm down south last month was absolutely incredible. 

2 inches of snow in my location during that event, the biggest snow event of the season in some areas here!

The entire region has done pretty well in terms of snow in the last few years, I wonder when our next "bad" winter region wide is. Before that I hope we get a full arctic blast down into Oregon though.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

May was pretty great TBH.

I would probably agree with you if I lived down there.   At least you had a nice run of 6 days in the 70s with no rain.  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I would probably agree with you if I lived down there.    

We've had more dry days mixed in farther south.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Doiinko said:

2 inches of snow in my location during that event, the biggest snow event of the season in some areas here!

The entire region has done pretty well in terms of snow in the last few years, I wonder when our next "bad" winter region wide is. Before that I hope we get a full arctic blast down into Oregon though.

It's starting to increasingly look as if it may be a La Niña three-peat for next winter. If so, highly unlikely to be a dud (note that this does not imply epic). A four-peat is, however, highly improbable, so I would guess that we would then be in for a dud winter or three.

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

May was pretty great TBH.

How much rain have you had last month and this month? 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

We've had more dry days mixed in farther south.

Here in Tacoma we’ve had 10 dry days this month. Some of the days with precipitation it still ended up being pretty nice overall. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It's starting to increasingly look as if it may be a La Niña three-peat for next winter. If so, highly unlikely to be a dud (note that this does not imply epic). A four-peat is, however, highly improbable, so I would guess that we would then be in for a dud winter or three.

Oh yeah, I think we will atleast see some good stuff this upcoming winter…but we’re probably due for a couple meh winters in the mid 2020s.  We’ve had 65” of snow here since December 2016…historically speaking that’s an incredible run. 

[Deweydog]

January 2023

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Here in Tacoma we’ve had 10 dry days this month. Some of the days with precipitation it still ended up being pretty nice overall. 

There have been some decent days out here as well... even though it has rained on 25 out of 30 days.    But the rain has been unusually persistent and its been a very wet and cold month overall.    

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Oh yeah, I think we will atleast see some good stuff this upcoming winter…but we’re probably due for a couple meh winters in the mid 2020s.  We’ve had 65” of snow here since December 2016…historically speaking that’s an incredible run. 

65 inches is crazy! I haven't seen more than 6 inches in a winter since 2016/17 (17-18 inches in that), so I hope I see something nice next winter. I've had around 38 inches from that time.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

There have been some decent days out here as well... even though it has rained on 25 out of 30 days.    But the rain has been unusually persistent and its been a very wet and cold month overall.    

You gotta move closer to the sound. We clear out much easier and rains not nearly as persistent overall. We get like 1/3rd of the rain you get. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.04” since midnight. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

65 inches is crazy! I haven't seen more than 6 inches in a winter since 2016/17 (17-18 inches in that), so I hope I see something nice next winter. I've had around 38 inches from that time.

Majority of that snow fell in February 2019 and 2021. 37.5” just in those 2 events alone. There’s been some other pretty decent events like February 2017 and December 2021…and quite a few modest snowfalls mixed in. Gonna suck when we get another 2015-2016 like winter. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

How much rain have you had last month and this month? 

10.2" combined. Last I checked, interior Lane county is still in a deficit too.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

You gotta move closer to the sound. We clear out much easier and rains not nearly as persistent overall. We get like 1/3rd of the rain you get. 

Well aware.   But I am comparing to climo and the rain has been unusually persistent and it's been much wetter and colder than normal across all of western WA.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Majority of that snow fell in February 2019 and 2021. 37.5” just in those 2 events alone. There’s been some other pretty decent events like February 2017 and December 2021…and quite a few modest snowfalls mixed in. Gonna suck when we get another 2015-2016 like winter. 

2015-16 had the wettest month ever in Portland in December which was cool but the rest of the winter was pretty bad. There was a quick one day "snowstorm" of an inch that winter here though.

February 2021 would've been close to 12 inches of snow in my area of it had shifted 10 miles south. Instead I had a lot of sleet and about 4-5 inches.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Majority of that snow fell in February 2019 and 2021. 37.5” just in those 2 events alone. There’s been some other pretty decent events like February 2017 and December 2021…and quite a few modest snowfalls mixed in. Gonna suck when we get another 2015-2016 like winter. 

Vancouver got skunked during those February events*, but last December and January was epic in the cold department (coldest readings in over 50 years) and above-average in the snow one. We’re due for another above-average snowfall year (as much as anyone can truly be “due” for such things, which is not very much).

 * Was personally lucky to be on Bainbridge Island in 2019 (right in the thick of it) and Bellingham in 2021 (just south of the north edge of the heavy snow line).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

April and May will be the first back to back cooler and wetter than normal months since Oct-Nov 2019...

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Vancouver got skunked during those February events*, but last December and January was epic in the cold department (coldest readings in over 50 years) and above-average in the snow one. We’re due for another above-average snowfall year (as much as anyone can truly be “due” for such things, which is not very much).

 * Was personally lucky to be on Bainbridge Island in 2019 (right in the thick of it) and Bellingham in 2021 (just south of the north edge of the heavy snow line).

How much snow did Vancouver have in 2016-2017? I thought there was a large event during that winter there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

10.2" combined. Last I checked, interior Lane county is still in a deficit too.

The foothills of lane county have done amazing the past two months. I know a guy up in Vida and he’s had 20” combined. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

April and May will be the first back to back cooler and wetter than normal months since Oct-Nov 2019...

Were those months wetter than normal in 2019?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very beneficial rains in the blues and wallowas this weekend. They have had 2.1” in Cove just north of LaGrande since Friday. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Doiinko said:

How much snow did Vancouver have in 2016-2017? I thought there was a large event during that winter there.

2016 looks like it was pretty good, but I wasn’t here to experience it. See the last chart on this page:

https://vancouver.weatherstats.ca/metrics/snow.html

[TacomaWaWx]

37 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

10.2" combined. Last I checked, interior Lane county is still in a deficit too.

Better than here for once! 7.58” combined here in that timeframe. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I am pretty sure June will be a significant improvement over May.  

Starting June with the MJO in phase-8 does strongly favor a warm tendency during the first half of the month. At least a dozen analogs since WWII to support that. June 1948 is a perfect example of a strong p8 MJO in a La Niña/-PDO background state.

Possibly one of the stronger correlations to exist at this time of year, and it has held for 70 years at least. Sometimes these teleconnections exist transiently/for a few decades, then vanish as systemic boundary conditions evolve, but this one has been stable for generations.

If it fails, then I don’t know what else could be capable of forcing a warm regime this summer. Would be hilarious, though.  

[TacomaWaWx]

This spring has had nearly double the rainfall of last spring…wettest since 2017 

2022-10.56”

2021-5.56”

2020-8.79”

2019-4.25”

2018-7.85”

2017-17.65”

[Phil]

And it seems we’ll still be either in late p8 or early p1 by June 10th (W-Pac/IPWP subsidence, anomalous upper level divergence in ATL/W-IO).

Both p8 and p1 are still warm signals in the West/PNW during early/mid June. However, any coupling to -IOD could complicate the picture.

[T-Town]

The sun is out and we’re up to 57 degrees. Looks like a pretty decent day in the offing. 

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The sun is out and we’re up to 57 degrees. Looks like a pretty decent day in the offing. 

Kind of an interesting day on satellite imagery. Low clouds scattering but mid/high clouds coming in from east. 

[Omegaraptor]

19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Kind of an interesting day on satellite imagery. Low clouds scattering but mid/high clouds coming in from east. 

Lol, kinda funny how the clouds stop pretty much exactly on the OR/CA border.
But there is kind of a geographical reason for it (crest of a significant mountain range running right along the border).

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

0.04” since midnight. 

Day ruined.