May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Our average rainfall is 1.17” for June so this verifying would definitely get us there. 

Oh well, that's a pretty low average. I'm guessing we get to average rainfall this month, but our average is closer to 3.5". 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall the GFS is dry and seasonably mild. 

could be worse i guess

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

could be worse i guess

 

Skewed by one super soaker over the weekend. Overall it's not awful. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh well, that's a pretty low average. I'm guessing we get to average rainfall this month, but our average is closer to 3.5". 

Euro shows about 2” in both our areas it looks like through day 10. Me thinks you’ll get to average Andrew! 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Overall the GFS is dry and seasonably mild. 

Agree... very reasonable.    Shows some decent rain events and lots of nice days.   The 00Z ECMWF basically showed at least some rain up here in the Seattle area every day except for today.       

[TT-SEA]

Sitting on the deck between meetings... too nice to be inside.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS through day 12... I like that troughing parked over the middle of the country.  Probably won't work out that way but would be a nice change of pace.

[Anti Marine Layer]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Skewed by one super soaker over the weekend. Overall it's not awful. 

[Doinko]

11 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Me and my older brother had always been into weather stuff…but my mom and her friend actually gave us one of the more memorable surprises of my life. They took us to the Q13 Fox News station and we had no idea what was going on. Then Walter kelly came out and met us! Super cool guy! I was 12 at the time…got to talk to him about a bunch of cool weather stuff. Mainly talked about January 2011 it was right after that bust lol. Was a very fun experience as a kid got to see him even do a weather break bit on the green screen. Have been very fascinated with weather even more so since. 

What happened in January 2011?

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What happened in January 2011?

Nothing. 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What happened in January 2011?

A January 1950 redux turned into a 1” slop that melted by morning lol. Of course a few weeks later we had an epic snow event here so it all worked out in the end. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

60 degrees and mostly sunny here.

I’ll trade u that 60 for my 94.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sunny and 63 after a low of 47 this morning. Really nice out. Should be heading for mid-70s today.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ll trade u that 60 for my 94.  

65 now.   And no deal on the trade.   This is a picture perfect day here.  

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

65 now.   And no deal on the trade.   This is a picture perfect day here.  

Hiss.

[TacomaWaWx]

I’m liking this so far 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

I’m liking this so far 

Lets get the normal rainfall for June out of the way quickly?   

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Lets get the normal rainfall for June out of the way quickly?   

If the euros right it’ll happen very quickly…although this stuff seems to possibly be of a more convective nature so maybe more scattered than it appears. 

[TacomaWaWx]

This runs way wetter than the 10 day total of the previous euro run. This is only out to hour 144. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like a fun first week of June coming up. Some seasonable warmth and some rain sounds nice right now.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

If the euros right it’ll happen very quickly…although this stuff seems to possibly be of a more convective nature so maybe more scattered than it appears. 

The 500mb later next week is quite tenuous on the ECMWF.. might not work out that way.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

64F and beautiful out there. Gonna hopefully get some mowing done once someone can be here in the backyard to watch me. Sucks not feeling independent but I enjoy doing things like that which help keep my confidence up.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 500mb later next week is quite tenuous on the ECMWF.. might not work out that way.   

I’d wager the ECMWF is closer to reality than the GFS w/ the 500mb picture, though.

Yet again, of all guidance, the GFS is the most cut-off with that NPAC trough. How many times has this exact scenario played out so far this spring? 4 or 5 times? And each time it’s during a CCKW/MJO orbit thru the W-Hem.

[TacomaWaWx]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 500mb later next week is quite tenuous on the ECMWF.. might not work out that way.   

Yeah we will see, definitely enjoying these maps tho 3.6” would be freaking insane if it happened. 

[The Blob]

Beautiful day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, the 12z EURO really delivers the goods!

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d wager the ECMWF is closer to reality than the GFS w/ the 500mb picture, though.

Yet again, of all guidance, the GFS is the most cut-off with that NPAC trough. How many times has this exact scenario played out so far this spring? 4 or 5 times? And each time it’s during a CCKW/MJO orbit thru the W-Hem.

For sure... everything seems to end up more progressive and zonal this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have a long summer ahead of us, but this rain west of the Cascades and in NE Oregon is great news. Concern is growing about fire season in Central Oregon, as much of this rain has bypassed that region. 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have a long summer ahead of us, but this rain west of the Cascades and in NE Oregon is great news. Concern is growing about fire season in Central Oregon, as much of this rain has bypassed that region. 

They need some summer 2019 like thunderstorms over central Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

They need some summer 2019 like thunderstorms over central Oregon. 

Yes. They definitely do. 

[ShawniganLake]

Cloudy and 62 here. A 70 free spring is looking pretty likely.  
 

It has actually been quite a bit less wet here than to the south. Just 2.73” on the month.  

[Meatyorologist]

It’s coming…

[Kayla]

Hot off the press.

[Phil]

Heat stays largely suppressed to the south on the 12z EPS. Would be nice if this could continue through the month of June, like 1955 and 1948, both of which had decent troughing across much of the CONUS through early summer (though 1948 was hot in the West for 2-3 weeks).

In fact, 1955 is the only year without a 70+ low here in June.

[DareDuck]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have a long summer ahead of us, but this rain west of the Cascades and in NE Oregon is great news. Concern is growing about fire season in Central Oregon, as much of this rain has bypassed that region. 

Another reason why I don’t post much over here anymore. The weather has been pretty lame for about 3 years now. Occasionally some good thunderstorms, but otherwise it’s dry, dry, dry. 

[TacomaWaWx]

5 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Another reason why I don’t post much over here anymore. The weather has been pretty lame for about 3 years now. Occasionally some good thunderstorms, but otherwise it’s dry, dry, dry. 

Tim wants to know if you’re Jesse

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Another reason why I don’t post much over here anymore. The weather has been pretty lame for about 3 years now. Occasionally some good thunderstorms, but otherwise it’s dry, dry, dry. 

The strong westerly flow creates a lot of shadowing. 

[DareDuck]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Tim wants to know if you’re Jesse

I find it amusing. He really gets worked up over a little react. 

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Some build ups over the Cascades... but doesn't seem to be moving westward.