June 2022 - Summer Begins

[FroYoBro]

Could people stop quoting and replying to the Hitler of sunshine, please? 
 

I don’t feel like reading propaganda every morning. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This thing keeps getting shorter...

As are the days

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This thing keeps getting shorter...

Might be the trend this summer…seems like some years the models underdo heatwaves and the overall temps and duration until a few days out. I remember in 2019 it was the opposite heat and warmth was constantly oversold on the models and pushed back. Still gonna be a decent shot of heat though. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This thing keeps getting shorter...

Both the ECMWF and GFS show that Tuesday is still sunny after the cool down... and Wednesday is a marine layer day.   Although the new 12Z GFS is sunny again by Wednesday afternoon.   Its 00Z run showed low clouds hanging on most of the day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is so pleasant. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is so pleasant. 

So far so good... we avoid any real heat and there is significant sunshine at least for the next 8 days on the 12Z GFS.    Can't ask for much more than that.  

[Phishy Wx]

At what point of Volcanic Winter should I start picking the leaves off my trees?   asking for a friend

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS is just about perfect for the next 10 days.    The troughing remains weak later next week and through the entire holiday weekend... but its cool enough aloft to keep the marine layer from being much of an issue at all.  The result on this run is a long string of days in the mid to upper 70s in the Seattle area right through the 4th.    Previous runs were more aggressive with the troughing and showed more cloudy/chilly days mixed in.    I give the GFS a little more weight at this point because the 00Z ECMWF was very similar.  

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GFS is just about perfect for the next 10 days.    The troughing remains weak later next week and through the entire holiday weekend... but its cool enough aloft to keep the marine layer from being much of an issue at all.  The result on this run is a long string of days in the mid to upper 70s in the Seattle area right through the 4th.    Previous runs were more aggressive with the troughing and showed more cloudy/chilly days mixed in.    I give the GFS a little more weight at this point because the 00Z ECMWF was very similar.  

 

Wouldn’t be surprised if the marine layer is still something of a factor. It often is. It just won’t be the predominant factor. Pretty typical dry summer weather coming up, in other words.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day... barely a cloud in the sky and 64 degrees.    

[TT-SEA]

This current trough passing through now was very effective at wiping out the marine layer.    There are no bad sunny days in the summer... unless the temp is over 90 which is pretty rare in the Seattle area.    SEA only averages 3 days above 90 per year and the record is only 12 set in 2015.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This thing keeps getting shorter...

Spoken like a true Lorena Bobbitt. 29 years ago today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Spoken like a true Lorena Bobbitt. 29 years ago today.

Omg can you imagine?!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Omg can you imagine?!

I remember it being one of the last pop culture things that was joked about before the prevalence of the internet in the couple years after that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I remember it being one of the last pop culture things that was joked about before the prevalence of the internet in the couple years after that.

I made a Lorena Bobbit joke at work to a guy our age a couple years ago and he had no idea what I was talking about... I was surprised.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure Mark Nelsen's 98 for Sunday is going to happen. He admitted on air last night, that was about as high as it would probably get on Sunday. Guessing he'll knock a few degrees off that this evening. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Want to beat Tim to the punch... 4th of July weekend starts warm, but not hot west of the Cascades. 

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF is just gorgeous.   Some marine layer clouds next Wednesday morning and that is it for the next 10 days.   Starts warming up again on Thursday and is still warm on Sunday morning at the end of the run.   The 4th might be cooler if it went out that far... but probably still nice.   The trends are great right now.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Want to beat Tim to the punch... 4th of July weekend starts warm, but not hot west of the Cascades. 

If Saturday and Sunday were warm and sunny next weekend... I wouldn't care too much what actually happens on the 4th.   We have to work the next day anyways.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Want to beat Tim to the punch... 4th of July weekend starts warm, but not hot west of the Cascades. 

Warm anomalies again for next weekend but mostly concentrated in Washington and east of the Cascades. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If Saturday and Sunday were warm and sunny next weekend... I wouldn't care too much what actually happens on the 4th.   We have to work the next day anyways.  

I think my wife is picking up a shift on the 4th, they are offering something like a $500 bonus on top of holiday pay... 

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Warm anomalies again for next weekend but mostly concentrated in Washington and east of the Cascades. 

Nice to see the central US getting a bit of a break. Hope Hawkstwelve is keeping it shaggy in SD. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think my wife is picking up a shift on the 4th, they are offering something like a $500 bonus on top of holiday pay... 

Sweet!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Huge crash on Sunday!   

Of course that is just the high through 5 a.m. that day but someone always mentions it. 

[TT-SEA]

Side note... the next 10 days are classic for the ECMWF cool bias to be prominent.   It will probably be at the projected high today in Seattle by 1 p.m. and I am sure it will warm up more after that with full sunshine.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Warm anomalies again for next weekend but mostly concentrated in Washington and east of the Cascades. 

And consider this is what we have today on this absolutely spectacular day...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And consider this is what we have today on this absolutely spectacular day...

EVEN BETTER

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EVEN BETTER

I would gladly take today on a holiday weekend... colder than normal 850mb temps and all.   Its beautiful.  

[Skagit Weather]

Monday looks surprisingly toasty up here. Euro has mid 80s to almost 90F even near the water? That would be pretty impressive considering I only surpassed 90F 3 times last year. At the most I would expect low 80s.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think my wife is picking up a shift on the 4th, they are offering something like a $500 bonus on top of holiday pay... 

That's a good deal!

[Phil]

EPS control run is a THING OF BEAUTY.

[Phil]

How’s this for a July 4th evening?

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

How’s this for a July 4th evening?

Its actually not that bad at the surface... probably upper 60s that day.     Blue on the map does not always mean its pouring rain and cold here.   

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 12Z EPS for the 4th... not bad.      

 

[Phil]

Big improvement on the EPS weeklies. Cluster of cool members grew and the warm cluster shrunk.

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I made a Lorena Bobbit joke at work to a guy our age a couple years ago and he had no idea what I was talking about... I was surprised.

Someone mentioned Alice Cooper on a work call the other day. Related to school being out for the summer. There was a 30-something on the call who had never heard of him. I get that it’s been many years since he’s been relevant in popular culture, but I was still a little surprised because that song gets a lot of play every June. 

[TT-SEA]

Severe clear...

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Someone mentioned Alice Cooper on a work call the other day. Related to school being out for the summer. There was a 30-something on the call who had never heard of him. I get that it’s been many years since he’s been relevant in popular culture, but I was still a little surprised because that song gets a lot of play every June. 

Ever since my kids watched the Muppets episode a few months ago that featured Alice Cooper they think he is the best ever! Haha 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Big improvement on the EPS weeklies. Cluster of cool members grew and the warm cluster shrunk.

Here are the new ECMWF weeklies.   I picture you scouring the models trying to find a way to make me worry that it will rain all of July and August.    But it will likely be quite nice for most of the next 3 months regardless of what the models show.