Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 0z GFS coming in a bit wetter and a tad north than 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 0Z GFS looks good for Omaha, RGEM not so much Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 DSM-- 00Z GFSSAT 00Z 21-NOV -0.5 -3.8 1018 95 99 0.36 551 536 SAT 06Z 21-NOV -1.3 -7.2 1022 93 99 0.31 544 527 SAT 12Z 21-NOV -5.5 -9.4 1027 83 27 0.04 538 516 SAT 18Z 21-NOV -6.6 -11.8 1030 82 29 0.00 534 511 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 00z GFS...WI/IL border getting smoked this run...creeping closer to Mt. Geo's! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Omaha is a tough call no doubt. I think the city will at least get a couple inches. GFS has the bullseye very close to my location now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 That HP off the east coast is def helping slow/dig this system and allow it to become slightly neg tilt...very healthy looking defo band...getting more interesting each run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Omaha is a tough call no doubt. I think the city will at least get a couple inches. GFS has the bullseye very close to my location now.Ya, folks in Omaha are prob pulling their hair out (if there is any left) ...let's see, last system dug farther SE...has been the trend...still about 12-16 hours away...lets see where precip starts forming Friday afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 00z GFS showing a nice lake enhanced band targeting NE IL around Noon Saturday... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 NAM has nothing here, while RGEM/GFS/UKIE would give E/C WI 4-5+ lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 what's the difference in how the snowfall totals are calculated between tropicaltidbits and instantweathermaps? quite a difference in the amounts over eastern Nebraska. tropicaltidbits looks to have 6" and instantweathermaps has barely 3 for Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 NAM has nothing here, while RGEM/GFS/UKIE would give E/C WI 4-5+ lol The RPM model hits your area as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 what's the difference in how the snowfall totals are calculated between tropicaltidbits and instantweathermaps? quite a difference in the amounts over eastern Nebraska. tropicaltidbits looks to have 6" and instantweathermaps has barely 3 for Omaha Instant Weather Maps uses accurate ratios while TD usually uses standard 10:1 ratios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 The RPM model hits your are as well... Yeah seems like all the hi-res models are in the north camp which usually isn't that surprising. Be interesting to see if UKIE holds again at 0z. Been consistently stronger/north than most of the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 RUC (hahaha miss this) http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/for_web/ruc_jet/2015112001/full/cref_sfc_f24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 GGEM quite a bit NW of 12z. HR 36: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_100.gif 12z HR 48 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/611_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 4 MB stronger and NW of 12z HR 48 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/531_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Jim flowers is holding strong at 3-3.5". It seems pretty bold for OMA but he knows his stuff, we shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 GEM showing some nice LE for Milwaukee/Chicago etc http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015112000/I_nw_r1_EST_2015112000_042.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 at least in Iowa the 12z and 00z CMC are virtually identical in terms of snow amounts. http://i.imgur.com/klHvj9x.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Ready for this to come in tomorrow night. Will be nice to see some snow again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Just gauging what the marine influence is doing on the other side of the lake at Holland. With the lake just as warm over there, the air temp is 40° with a dewpoint of 22°.A lot of room for evaporative cooling when adding moisture to the mix. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 What's the name of the site where I could get access to model stuff? Thinking about purchasing a subscription for the winter, but forgot what is out there lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 UKIE and GGEM nearly identical at HR 48 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 your probably thinking of instantweathermaps.om Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 your probably thinking of instantweathermaps.omNo, that is free. I used to be subscribed to a site where I could get access to all kinds of maps and the setup was very nice, but can't remember the name. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Much weaker precip wise tho http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 No, that is free. I used to be subscribed to a site where I could get access to all kinds of maps and the setup was very nice, but can't remember the name. Weatherbell?... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Weather Bell is what it is, I remember! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Jim flowers is holding strong at 3-3.5". It seems pretty bold for OMA but he knows his stuff, we shall see.I like Jim and also really like Bill Randby. I normally watch KETV too. Bill has us with only 1-2" and his in house model only gives us .5". He kept talking about dry air and warm temperatures really limiting Omaha. In fact his in house doesn't even have rain starting til like 4pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 No, that is free. I used to be subscribed to a site where I could get access to all kinds of maps and the setup was very nice, but can't remember the name.WxBell?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 NNM/ARW pretty much identical precip wise through hr 19 NNM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_019_sim_radar.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 WxBell?? Weatherbell?...Yes I got it hahaha sorry about that! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 The UK looks great for Eastern Iowa, definitely like that run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Ukie http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Little tiny orange dot of 25mm over me! lol Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 NNM/ARW still pretty far north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 NNM/ARW 1-1.5" qpf for central-northern IA. Was it showing this much in recent runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 The usually dry ARW has 1.25-1.5 QPF in Southern WI http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_conus_044_precip_p36.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 NNM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/00/hrw-nmm_conus_044_precip_p36.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 20, 2015 Report Share Posted November 20, 2015 Man I would really love the models to be right with their QPF values for this storm, starting off the season with a 6"storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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