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December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

I now have a complete solar system i assembled. Total cost was 1700. I have 2500 watts of clean energy. Pretty cool to have a remote location and walk in and turn on the tv and lights and know its all

Bryant
Bryant

Since no one else seems to want to answer, yes, the new 12z is a bit colder at 240 hours. It's not a big change however, and it's also 240 hours out so not worth sweating over. For future reference, o

snow_wizard
snow_wizard

I just signed up for Weather Bell to help navigate through what will hopefully be a fun period coming up.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Definitely looks like an impressive poor mans cold spell coming up.  Even the first precip being shown after the long inversion is going to be close to snow.  1000 - 850 thicknesses just barely above 1290 at day 9.  It appears Mother Nature may be set to pull every trick out of the bag to keep the chill going for a long time.  As I have said before...anything beats ugly dying warm fronts which is typical Nino fare after December.

 

It will be interesting to see if that weird ULL a bit down the road will give the cold snap a bit of extra oomph.  The WRF says it will, but then again I think it's too warm the couple of days before that feature moves overhead.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Hold onto your hats cause it's about to get foggy! Damp cold, yay! 

 

attachicon.gifnew years fog.PNG

 

I think it's pretty noteworthy a colder than normal January may be in the cards with this strong of a Nino.  With the MJO slated to be favorable for us again by mid January we may even get another stab at something meaningful. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I just want to comment on ECMWF weeklies again.  I looked at them today and it shows the NW with below normal 850mb temps for the entire 18 to 32 day period.  Not really Ninoish.  It does have a distinct minus AO look to it which is not always a bad thing for us.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Nice to see the warm SSTs over the NE waning with all of the cold / stormy weather.  The first image is Nov 1 and the second one is current.

 

 

post-222-0-20747000-1451368902_thumb.gif

post-222-0-02466300-1451368917_thumb.gif

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

I recall back in November they were showing quite a bit of ridging. Didn't exactly pan out that way.

Yeah, here is a blog post from November 19th basically showing the same thing as the latest one:

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/ecmwf-monthly-run-9/

 

We all know how December turned out. Wettest month ever for PDX and our best Cascade snow month of the last few years.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Yeah, here is a blog post from November 19th basically showing the same thing as the latest one:

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/ecmwf-monthly-run-9/

 

We all know how December turned out. Wettest month ever for PDX and our best Cascade snow month of the last few years.

Nice pull back.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF is nothing but cold for 10 days and beyond.  Should be one hell of a Basin cold pool coming up.  I'm surprised Rob isn't on here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow's low, dry as it may be, is actually pretty impressive on satellite.

 

It sure looks stronger than the 1014mb indicated on the WRF.  Maybe it will bomb out and move over SW WA. :o​

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF is nothing but cold for 10 days and beyond.  Should be one hell of a Basin cold pool coming up.  I'm surprised Rob isn't on here.

 

I think he called it a night early tonight. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

I recall back in November they were showing quite a bit of ridging. Didn't exactly pan out that way.

The weeklies have honestly been somewhat mediocre this winter. That week-4 depiction looks way off to me, though I don't expect the modeling to grasp the ramifications of the strat/tropical forcing conundrum this far out.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

It sure looks stronger than the 1014mb indicated on the WRF. Maybe it will bomb out and move over SW WA. :o​

Maybe it will bring us some long needed 34degree rain... Exciting! C'mon lets get this exciting inversion going!! ... This is what I have been waiting for.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Maybe it will bring us some long needed 34degree rain... Exciting! C'mon lets get this exciting inversion going!! ... This is what I have been waiting for.

 

It would actually be snow this time.

 

As for the inversion...it will put up some pretty respectable numbers.  This one has pretty much everything going for it.  This particular area does better than just about anywhere on the west side of the Cascades with this kind of situation. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Bryant Community Regular

Bryant

Posted
Posted

I think it's pretty noteworthy a colder than normal January may be in the cards with this strong of a Nino. With the MJO slated to be favorable for us again by mid January we may even get another stab at something meaningful.

As Phil has been saying, there's quite a battle shaping up. The wave bombardment on the PV has began cooling the equatorial upper troposphere/lower stratosphere which helps to create instability, allowing the convective nature of the MJO to ignite. If the PV continues to cool the equatorial region and the MJO gains amplitude, then yes, we have a chance at retrogression and arctic air down the road. I'd say it would be closer to the end of the month rather than middle, but it's a ways out either way. Phil mentioned to me that an MJO wave which has a high amplitude over the Pacific is much more likely to make a full cycle or 2, so root for a strong MJO as it propagates eastward.

 

If ENSO wins out in this battle, our winter is pretty much done most likely. Mean forcing would be over WPac/CPac with little hope of MJO activity outside of Nino regions.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

As Phil has been saying, there's quite a battle shaping up. The wave bombardment on the PV has began cooling the equatorial upper troposphere/lower stratosphere which helps to create instability, allowing the convective nature of the MJO to ignite. If the PV continues to cool the equatorial region and the MJO gains amplitude, then yes, we have a chance at retrogression and arctic air down the road. I'd say it would be closer to the end of the month rather than middle, but it's a ways out either way. Phil mentioned to me that an MJO wave which has a high amplitude over the Pacific is much more likely to make a full cycle or 2, so root for a strong MJO as it propagates eastward.

 

If ENSO wins out in this battle, our winter is pretty much done most likely. Mean forcing would be over WPac/CPac with little hope of MJO activity outside of Nino regions.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens.  One thing for sure is the ECMWF has been much better at forecasting the MJO than the GFS this season.  The ECMWF indicates it will be done with the unfavorable regions for us in about two weeks.  Could take a week beyond that to get into region 2.  During this current cycle 2 - 5 really tanked the PNA.  Now with the AO about to crash a big minus PNA could really pay off.  In the meantime we stay cold.  We could pull off a super Nino miracle!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Bryant Community Regular

Bryant

Posted
Posted

It will be interesting to see what happens. One thing for sure is the ECMWF has been much better at forecasting the MJO than the GFS this season. The ECMWF indicates it will be done with the unfavorable regions for us in about two weeks. Could take a week beyond that to get into region 2. During this current cycle 2 - 5 really tanked the PNA. Now with the AO about to crash a big minus PNA could really pay off. In the meantime we stay cold. We could pull off a super Nino miracle!

Just be careful using the RMM MJO plots that everyone uses. They are very easily contaminated by non MJO waves in the tropics. I just want some snowfall here at home instead of having to drive for it :)

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

Can this be considered irrefutable evidence that the Canadian will verify?

Well it looks like the low is behaving just as most models have forecasted. It will take a sharp right turn and head due south and weaken rapidly. So no, the Candian is wrong.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Well it looks like the low is behaving just as most models have forecasted. It will take a sharp right turn and head due south and weaken rapidly. So no, the Candian is wrong.

 

 

Even the precip around Portland is not the low... here is the HRRR for 4 p.m.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_ncep_jet/2015122912/t1/1ref_t1sfc_f12.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted

The western third of the U.S. is averaging about +2.5F (including all of the PNW), while 92.9% of the U.S. is running warmer than average. One of the warmest Decembers on record, as of now.

 

That's a nationwide torch, for all intents and purposes. No need to split hairs. :)

Not splitting hairs to point out that map will look easily cooler for the West by month's end. :)

A forum for the end of the world.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

ECMWF sure is boring.   Inversion cold notwithstanding... there is not much to track or follow now.   I will have some crusty snow on the ground which is better than nothing... and the mountains are buried and skiing will be great so its not like the inversions of the last couple years.  

 

But I have been intently tracking all of the snow chances for the last couple weeks and now I am sitting here looking at the models with no interest at all.   

 

Pretty sure we come out of this period with another long warm, rainy period.    Yes... there might be a little snow at the transition but that is so hollow compared to going into cold with snow.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

It would actually be snow this time.

 

 

For the record... this statement is wrong and another example of very wishful thinking.    If Seattle did get into the precip today it still would not be snow.   It would be drizzle with dewpoints in the mid 30s.   The set up on Sunday was much better with a dry air mass in place before the front.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

It would actually be snow this time.

 

As for the inversion...it will put up some pretty respectable numbers. This one has pretty much everything going for it. This particular area does better than just about anywhere on the west side of the Cascades with this kind of situation.

Huh? Not to sound rude but it would not be snow. Again very wishful forecasting.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

ECMWF sure is boring. Inversion cold notwithstanding... there is not much to track or follow now. I will have some crusty snow on the ground which is better than nothing... and the mountains are buried and skiing will be great so its not like the inversions of the last couple years.

 

But I have been intently tracking all of the snow chances for the last couple weeks and now I am sitting here looking at the models with no interest at all.

 

Pretty sure we come out of this period with another long warm, rainy period. Yes... there might be a little snow at the transition but that is so hollow compared to going into cold with snow.

Sounds like someone needs a motivational cat poster.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Sounds like someone needs a motivational cat poster.

 

 

I think so!   Hang in there baby.  :)

 

Ironically... there are some flurries falling here right now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

I think so! Hang in there baby. :)

 

Ironically... there are some flurries falling here right now.

Well you have definitely had it worse than most here. Nothing more horrific than having to worry about how one's decent snowpack is going to melt/evolve in the coming days. Lean on friends and family for strength!

  • Like 6

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Well you have definitely had it worse than most here. Nothing more horrific than having to worry about how one's decent snowpack is going to melt/evolve in the coming days. Lean on firends and family for strength!

 

 

Yeah... its been rough.   Nothing worse than watching snow fall of the trees in a mushy 34 degrees!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tyler Mode Mentor

Tyler Mode

Posted
Posted

Here are my weather comments the last few days...

27th: Cloudy, Then Rain and Snow Off and On, Cold, Dreary
28th: Cloudy, Fog, Mist, Continued Cold
29th: Cloudy, Foggy, Drizzle and Light Rain

Temp has not budged more than 7.8 degrees in the last 4 days...

I'm ready for the gunk to clear out of here.  I may be close enough to the gorge to reap the benefits.  Although, a few times I've seen it socked in everywhere north of Mill Plain and sunny south.

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