December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Hey will this all be snow this time?

 

It should be...but we've all heard that before.

[HighlandExperience]

It should be...but we've all heard that before.

Lots of teasing. Weatherbell maps have been a joke

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowed almost the entire way from home to tonaskat. Crazy

[TT-SEA]

I hope the Tuesday system misses as well.   Enough snow already!    I kid.   I kid.  

 

My son and I have shoveled the entire driveway 3 times tonight... its easier to shovel 1 or 2 inches at a time than 6.  He has learned well.  And its nice to just be outside in the softness of all the snow.   We also make sure to pile the snow high so it stays longer rather than throwing it far into the yard.   We are a little obsessive with it!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Omak to tonaskat has around 10 inches. Good amount forthere.

[HighlandExperience]

Snowed almost the entire way from home to tonaskat. Crazy

Love the okanagen valley. Especially up into BC

[snow_wizard]

I hope the Tuesday system misses as well.   Enough snow already!    I kid.   I kid.  

 

My son and I have shoveled the entire driveway 3 times tonight... its easier to shovel 1 or 2 inches at a time than 6.  He has learned well.  And its nice to just be outside in the softness of all the snow.   We also make sure to pile the snow high so it stays longer rather than throwing it far into the yard.   We are a little obsessive with it!  

 

This cold / dry weather coming up will work out well for you.

[Perturbed Member]

The 00z Euro has a pretty good low placement for PDX. Both the 00z GFS and 00z Euro trended quite a bit further south with the Tuesday low but the GFS goes so far south that it misses everyone but  leaves us all cold. The NAM decided to take the low way north, gives Puget Sound a shot for snow while torching PDX. 

 

I'm inclined to weight the Euro solution more since it has been a bit more consistent on that track, but really it feels like the models really haven't yet ironed out where this low goes. 

[TT-SEA]

This cold / dry weather coming up will work out well for you.

 

 

Yeah... its nice to have a snow event without a warm south wind in sight.   Pretty rare here.

 

Here is the end of our driveway right now...

 

[Snowman5678]

I hope the Tuesday system misses as well.   Enough snow already!    I kid.   I kid.  

 

My son and I have shoveled the entire driveway 3 times tonight... its easier to shovel 1 or 2 inches at a time than 6.  He has learned well.  And its nice to just be outside in the softness of all the snow.   We also make sure to pile the snow high so it stays longer rather than throwing it far into the yard.   We are a little obsessive with it!  

My dad and I used to the same thing with always putting the snow in one big pile so it would stick around for longer. We also did the periodical shoveling of the driveway. Way easier than shoveling it all at once. It's been a while since i've had to shovel the driveway...therefore a long time since i've been able to put it all in one big pile.  

[TT-SEA]

My dad and I used to the same thing with always putting the snow in one big pile so it would stick around for longer. We also did the periodical shoveling of the driveway. Way easier than shoveling it all at once. It's been a while since i've had to shovel the driveway...therefore a long time since i've been able to put it all in one big pile.

 

 

We did not put in all in a pile this time... just made nice snowbanks.   If it was going to really warm up tomorrow we would have piled it in one place... but we want this snow to look nice since it might stick around.  

[snow_wizard]

I think the ECMWF is even more freakish than the GFS for the 5 to 10 day period.  It has very much the same progression with weird low undercutting the upper level ridge, but by day 10 we have a block almost in position to deliver Arctic air to the NW.  I'm thinking this will be an overperforming hybrid of a fake / real cold snap.  At day 8 the ECMWF has 546 heights over part of Western WA with 850s below zero.  I have never seen anything like that move over without disturbing an existing inversion.  I can see some serious cold mins for some places out of this.  Probably some -20s in Eastern OR.  This looks better than the cold snap in late November.  With heavy snow cover over the Basin we could accumulate some serious cold air.

[Front Ranger]

One heck of a block on the Euro, that's for sure. Too bad all the really cold air is on the other side of the globe.

[Snowman5678]

We did not put in all in a pile this time... just made nice snowbanks.   If it was going to really warm up tomorrow we would have piled it in one place... but we want this snow to look nice since it might stick around.  

 

Yeah, in 2008 we had banks along our whole driveway but there is one area of it where we have to pile up all the snow in one spot which makes one big pile (which was massive in 2008) and then the snow banks along the side. I think in 2012 we had snow banks along the side too instead of all of it in a big pile. 

 

That'll be nice having all that snow and the pretty snow banks going into the inversion. Makes the rain more bearable.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, in 2008 we had banks along our whole driveway but there is one area of it where we have to pile up all the snow in one spot which makes one big pile (which was massive in 2008) and then the snow banks along the side. I think in 2012 we had snow banks along the side too instead of all of it in a big pile. 

 

That'll be nice having all that snow and the pretty snow banks going into the inversion. Makes the rain more bearable.

 

In 2007-08 we literally could not pile the snow any higher.   We ran out of room.   We had snowbanks that were at least 8 feet high and it was too much work to throw it that high.   My kids took it for granted and assumed it was always like that... the last few years have been painful for them.  

[snow_wizard]

One heck of a block on the Euro, that's for sure. Too bad all the really cold air is on the other side of the globe.

 

I still think this will be a perfect storm for homegrown cold.  This looks beyond perfect to me.

[seattleweatherguy]

One heck of a block on the Euro, that's for sure. Too bad all the really cold air is on the other side of the globe.

 

so good washington cold and snow, but not historic

[snow_wizard]

I am somewhat encouraged the radar echoes indicate the flow becoming NW north of Seattle and there is some moisture present.  The temps continues to slowly fall here with heavy cloud cover and the WRF indicates 850s will drop about 2C tonight.  There might be some hope for a little bit of snow before sunrise.

[snow_wizard]

The day 10 ECMWF shows plenty of potential for a back door cold shot.  Not typical Nino fare by any means.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

The echoes moving southward into King County are getting heavier and precip type radar indicates snow.  We just might pull off something yet.  Down to 33 here now with light NE winds.

 

A number of GFS ensemble members look kind of like the ECMWF operational at day 10.  Looks like cross Polar blocking.

[HighlandExperience]

The echoes moving southward into King County are getting heavier and precip type radar indicates snow. We just might pull off something yet. Down to 33 here now with light NE winds.

 

A number of GFS ensemble members look kind of like the ECMWF operational at day 10. Looks like cross Polar blocking.

Whatever falls should be straight snow.

[snow_wizard]

Whatever falls should be straight snow.

 

Yeah...this looks pretty promising.  That moisture is marching southward and showing no signs of slowing down.  The big thing is the 850mb level is getting colder now.  The mid levels is probably what hurt us earlier.  Nice to see the surface temps slowly falling as well.

[MossMan]

In 2007-08 we literally could not pile the snow any higher. We ran out of room. We had snowbanks that were at least 8 feet high and it was too much work to throw it that high. My kids took it for granted and assumed it was always like that... the last few years have been painful for them.

In 2008 I had stacked the snow so high at my work with the tractor That it ended up staying around until Febuary of 2009. That was pretty crazy!

[TT-SEA]

Snowing and 30 here this morning.   Looks like its about over though.

 

20 at Snoqualmie Pass this morning.   Can't wait until offshore flow get going again tomorrow.   

[TT-SEA]

Tomorrow afternoon per the new NAM... system slides way south of everyone and disappears.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_036_precip_p03.gif

[MossMan]

Snowing and 30 here this morning. Looks like its about over though.

 

20 at Snoqualmie Pass this morning. Can't wait until offshore flow get going again tomorrow.

How much did you get overnight?

[TT-SEA]

How much did you get overnight?

 

 

Maybe another inch.    I can see the moon now... snow should be over.  

[MossMan]

Maybe another inch. I can see the moon now... snow should be over.

Nice! The temp did not budge overnight here at 34.5 degrees. What snow was on the ground yesterday is long gone.

[DareDuck]

I hope the Tuesday system misses as well. Enough snow already! I kid. I kid.

 

My son and I have shoveled the entire driveway 3 times tonight... its easier to shovel 1 or 2 inches at a time than 6. He has learned well. And its nice to just be outside in the softness of all the snow. We also make sure to pile the snow high so it stays longer rather than throwing it far into the yard. We are a little obsessive with it!

Ha I do the same. I like shoveling while it's snowing and making piles. But only if it's going to warm up, I left the j snow mostly untouched while it was cold enough. I have a pile in the back in the shade that's been there since Nov. 24th.

[DareDuck]

Pendleton removed accumulating snow for the Tuesday night storm here in central Oregon. Do we have a chance for a couple inches in Bend? I ask because I have family from CA coming Tuesday night and would love for them to see a couple inches around town before it gets cold.

[Tyler Mode]

Interesting note, my temperature has moved less than 10 degrees in the last 5 days. 31.4 to 41.4.

 

The diurnal ranges:

 

24th: 7.9

25th: 7

26th: 7.7

27th: 5

28: So far, 1.5

[Snowman5678]

In 2007-08 we literally could not pile the snow any higher.   We ran out of room.   We had snowbanks that were at least 8 feet high and it was too much work to throw it that high.   My kids took it for granted and assumed it was always like that... the last few years have been painful for them.  

Yeah, we had the same thing with our big piles in 2008!

 

No snow here this morning. I don't think I've ever seen it snow for so long without any accumulations. Frustrating to say the least. 

[MossMan]

Argh...I get into work for the first time since last Monday, sit down in my office, turn on my computer...msn is my home page, it pops and the first thing I see is "epic snowstorm to slam Texas". Well at least we might have an "epic inversion"!

[TT-SEA]

[TT-SEA]

And its snowing again.   Radar shows a little activity out here still.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS taking the system tomorrow night south too.

[TT-SEA]

Kids were outside playing in the snow until about 11 last night... found this out there this morning.  

 

[Deweydog]

GFS taking the system tomorrow night south too.

The trajectory is a *****. No left exit region equals no deformation zone. Placement is gorgeous though.

[TT-SEA]

That cell on the radar is expanding out here... some nice orographic lifting it appears.    Snowing moderately now and 30.5 degrees and accumulating.

[BLI snowman]

12Z GEM and WRF both show a little more QPF over northern OR and southern WA tomorrow. NAM is garbage. But alas, the right combination of steady precip rates and cold enough temps isn't really there with this. Maybe another 34 degree flurry before we dry out.