December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[DareDuck]

Ah D**n looks like we're getting nothing from this tonight. The band over Eugene just fizzled out on its way here and the rest of the energy is 100 miles too far south.

[Deweydog]

He kept talking about getting a little snow on Sunday going into the inversion... but just glossing over Monday and Tuesday. And probably tomorrow as well since it will not be an inversion yet.

Criminal.

[TT-SEA]

Criminal.

No... but we do discuss the models here. I just could not mention on Sunday that the gap between the snow and the inversion was much larger than he was saying.

[Deweydog]

No... but we do discuss the models here. I just could not mention on Sunday that the gap between the snow and the inversion was much larger than he was saying.

I don't think he got snow.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think he got snow.

There was hope on Sunday... even I was getting excited for his prospects when the deformation band formed. Precip intensity was just too light.

 

Did not want to tell him it would never make it to the inversion at that time... which was pretty clear in the models. Would have been nice to get something though.

[Deweydog]

There was hope on Sunday... even I was getting excited for his prospects when the deformation band formed. Precip intensity was just too light.

 

Did not want to tell him it would never make it to the inversion at that time... which was pretty clear in the models. Would have been nice to get something though.

I guess we should applaud you for waiting until tonight to break the bad news.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the equation is about to change.  The next time the PNA goes minus the results could be desirable.  

 

[Snowman5678]

I rest my case about humidity and dew point being the hardest thing to measure.  Over time the sensors become increasingly inaccurate due to dust and other contaminants.  I have tried analog instruments to measure humidity also without great success.

Yeah, it is difficult but it seemed pretty accurate to me until it went batshit crazy on Sunday.

 

33.6 degrees with fog here. My station thinks the humidity is 8% and the dew point is -21...

[TT-SEA]

I guess we should applaud you for waiting until tonight to break the bad news.

The 44 at SEA stuck out to me. And then just reaching freezing now at his house for the first time.

[snow_wizard]

No... but we do discuss the models here. I just could not mention on Sunday that the gap between the snow and the inversion was much larger than he was saying.

 

I did indeed think the drier air would arrive sooner and I thought it would freeze up the mushy snow so it would have lasted.   Tonight the freeze has finally arrived.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, it is difficult but it seemed pretty accurate to me until it went batshit crazy on Sunday.

 

33.6 degrees with fog here. My station thinks the humidity is 8% and the dew point is -21...

 

Wow!  You will get some good cooling tonight with numbers like that. 

[TT-SEA]

I did indeed think the drier air would arrive sooner and I thought it would freeze up the mushy snow so it would have lasted. Tonight the freeze has finally arrived.

It's been painfully slow. I don't think it actually got below 32 even here last night. I think it hovered right at 32 all night.

[GHweatherChris]

It's been painfully slow. I don't think it actually got below 32 even here last night. I think it hovered right at 32 all night.

Oh the stress...

 

 

 

is comical!!

[MossMan]

Yeah, it is difficult but it seemed pretty accurate to me until it went batshit crazy on Sunday.

 

33.6 degrees with fog here. My station thinks the humidity is 8% and the dew point is -21...

My dp was dropping on Sunday as well but not like your reading did! I was reading 38 with a dp of 29 first thing in the morning but as it got closer to snowing the temp and dp dropped until I hit 33 with a dp of 24 which seemed strange!

[TT-SEA]

Oh the stress...

 

 

 

is comical!!

 

The fact that we care this much about the weather is sort of comical.   

[GHweatherChris]

The fact that we care this much about the weather is sort of comical.

You and I finally agree on something!! Weird...

[HighlandExperience]

The fact that we care this much about the weather is sort of comical.

#uppermiddleclassproblems

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Already down to 29 here under clear skies. I have had two bouts of rain since sunday and somehow solid snow cover managed to survive...

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 29F here this evening. My 2" of snow from Sunday is just barely hanging on. Probably about 1" left on the grassy areas.

[MossMan]

Down to 29 already.

[GHweatherChris]

Down to 29F here this evening. My 2" of snow from Sunday is just barely hanging on. Probably about 1" left on the grassy areas.

But, but, it was supposed to be gone by now according to some.............one.

[MossMan]

I take it we have no new developments from the GFS and GEM? Don't feel like getting the iPad out to check. I'm worn out from all the model riding today from Dec 2008 and Jan/Feb of 2007. Was exhausting.

[Snowman5678]

My dp was dropping on Sunday as well but not like your reading did! I was reading 38 with a dp of 29 first thing in the morning but as it got closer to snowing the temp and dp dropped until I hit 33 with a dp of 24 which seemed strange!

Yeah, at first it started dropping in normal numbers dropping from like 33 down to 26ish we seemed a little weird, then it dropped down to 18 and 16 and that was quite weird and it just kept dropping. 

[snow_wizard]

I will say the GFS in the 7 to 10 day period is about as close to a magic act as I've ever seen in the model world.  Absolutley bizarre progression.  There are enough weird details in this situation to where we could see some interesting variations in the progression of the inversion.  I'm hoping we can get the perfect details for this end up an inversion on steroids.  This is the right time of year for it.

[Front Ranger]

No doubt the equation is about to change. The next time the PNA goes minus the results could be desirable.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

It is interesting to see the AO already taking a dive...but the PV is over in Asia, so no real cold air for the U.S.

[snow_wizard]

A lot more spread on the ensemble tonight.

[Front Ranger]

I will say the GFS in the 7 to 10 day period is about as close to a magic act as I've ever seen in the model world. Absolutley bizarre progression. There are enough weird details in this situation to where we could see some interesting variations in the progression of the inversion. I'm hoping we can get the perfect details for this end up an inversion on steroids. This is the right time of year for it.

Super Air Stagnation advisory? At least Tim will be above it all, with the pics to prove it.

[Guest Winterdog]

Currently 28F at Arlington where they have cleared out but I'm still 33F here with low clouds hanging on.

[snow_wizard]

It is interesting to see the AO already taking a dive...but the PV is over in Asia, so no real cold air for the U.S.

 

At this point I think the tanking AO will slow the screaming jet way down over the Pacific.  You would think the cold would have to make into North America eventually.  We actually have  a shot at really cold January if we can manage some true cold later on to go with the mega inversion early on.

 

This is one reason I like cold no matter how it presents itself.  That and the fact I simply like to feel cold air in the winter.

[snow_wizard]

Super Air Stagnation advisory? At least Tim will be above it all, with the pics to prove it.

 

I'm thinking more along the lines of some sub freezing highs.  If the Basin cold pool gets intense enough and then seeps through the passes some places could end up quite chilly.  The Gorge outflow could get really nippy.

 

No question his pics will be coming.

[snow_wizard]

It's below freezing outside!!!!  Yay!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Down to 27 here ....

[Deweydog]

Basin cold pool off to a rocking start... Near 30 around the Tri Cities. That's below zero celsius.

[Phil]

At this point I think the tanking AO will slow the screaming jet way down over the Pacific. You would think the cold would have to make into North America eventually. We actually have a shot at really cold January if we can manage some true cold later on to go with the mega inversion early on.

 

This is one reason I like cold no matter how it presents itself. That and the fact I simply like to feel cold air in the winter.

The first 10-15 days of January will still run warm over most of the nation due to NPAC jet extension/vorticity associated w/ progression of tropical forcing. The flip to -NAM will be beneficial in the long run, but largely meaningless in the near term.

 

California will cash in, though, and the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/East Coast will finally start racking up snowfall.

[snow_wizard]

Basin cold pool off to a rocking start... Near 30 around the Tri Cities. That's below zero celsius.

 

Many places are in the low 20s over there now.  Pretty interesting the WRF shows no mid or high clouds over WA for a solid week.  That should allow things to cool off nicely.

[snow_wizard]

The first 10-15 days will still run warm over most of the nation due to NPAC jet extension/vorticity associated w/ progression of tropical forcing. The flip to -NAM will be beneficial in the long run, but largely meaningless in the near term.

 

We will be cold here due to trapped low level cold.  The point I was making is fake cold the first half of the month and real cold the second half could make a pretty cold month over all.  Total speculation at this point of course.

[Phil]

We will be cold here due to trapped low level cold.

For awhile, maybe. Details will change, as they always go during transition periods.

[MossMan]

Many places are in the low 20s over there now. Pretty interesting the WRF shows no mid or high clouds over WA for a solid week. That should allow things to cool off nicely.

Especially with all the snow cover from the west side foothills all the way east.

[Phil]

It is interesting to see the AO already taking a dive...but the PV is over in Asia, so no real cold air for the U.S.

Yeah, it's occurring a good two weeks ahead of schedule. Some very odd s**t ongoing right now, actually.

[Deweydog]

Many places are in the low 20s over there now. Pretty interesting the WRF shows no mid or high clouds over WA for a solid week. That should allow things to cool off nicely.

It's typically imperative things turn over at least once over there early on if you want something really special and homegrown. December 2005 and so on... Not sure if that's in the cards. WRF does show things clearing out over there as the cut off comes into play but I consider that a little suspect.