December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Wow, 500 thickness on the 18Z on Christmas eve eve in Abbotsford, BC.

[snow_wizard]

I just looked at a roundup of all the weather woes in Western WA today.  Very impressive.  1990 and 2006 have nothing on this year now.  We all know what happened both of those years.  Both warm ENSO BTW.  Hint hint.  Models aren't everything.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 34 minutes!

[crf450ish]

No forecast is,accurate before within 36 hours.

No kidding. Thats why I don't get hyped up with the whole weather model thing. Sure, its fun to toss out ideas about what could happen. If its more then a day and a half out (around here), I take it with a grain of salt. It's as bad as predicting the outcome of sports way before the games even begin. Never know what could happen.....that is what I like about the weather here, you really dont know until its nearly here. 

 

 

 

 

 

I still dislike the rain very much so 

[Weather101]

That squall last night was 100% impressive! It appears SEA had gusts over 50mph for several minutes. Where I live the wind was absolutley crazy for about 10 minutes. There are large branches from some of our trees strewn several hundred feet down the street. We had several 2" to 3.5" diameter branches come crashing down in our yard one of which nearly tore the gutter off the house. Ironically a cheaply made flimsy lighted reindeer in our front yard escaped injury while being surrounded by a number of 50 to 100 pound tree branches. After all of that there were numerous lightning flashes right around sunrise. My wife said one of them was a spectacular bolt.

 

To say the least this has been a very impressive Nino winter so far.

Depends how you look at it being " impressive". No snow yet this year. No real cold air yet. So far last year is just the same as this year... Hell, I had 1 inch of snow already last year.

[Guest Winterdog]

Infinity sucks.

[snow_wizard]

Depends how you look at it being " impressive". No snow yet this year. No real cold air yet. So far last year is just the same as this year... Hell, I had 1 inch of snow already last year.

 

1949-50 had no snow by this time either...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like my location will receive snowfall on and off starting on Sunday night. I head out of town Tuesday evening until Christmas. I let my house sitter know they are responsible for recording snowfall measurements while I am gone. 

[snow_wizard]

No kidding. Thats why I don't get hyped up with the whole weather model thing. Sure, its fun to toss out ideas about what could happen. If its more then a day and a half out (around here), I take it with a grain of salt. It's as bad as predicting the outcome of sports way before the games even begin. Never know what could happen.....that is what I like about the weather here, you really dont know until its nearly here. 

 

 

 

 

 

I still dislike the rain very much so 

 

Not true at all.  Forecasts up to 7 days out are pretty reliable now...most of the time.

 

Longer range is possible in the right cases.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like my location will receive snowfall on and off starting on Sunday night. I head out of town Tuesday evening until Christmas. I let my house sitter know they are responsible for recording snowfall measurements while I am gone. 

 

I'll bet they think you are nuts!  I totally understand though.

[Weather101]

1949-50 had no snow by this time either...

LOL why do i care about 1949-50?

[TT-SEA]

December into early January was wickedly active in both 1982-83 and in 1997-98.

 

And then of course we have December of 1972 and its arctic cold.

 

Please tell me what made anyone think November and December would be dull with a very strong Nino??      

 

It was virtually inevitable that it would be very active early on this winter.    And even more likely after this awesome summer.  

[MossMan]

LOL why do i care about 1949-50?

Do you know what happened in January of 1950?

[Weather101]

Do you know what happened in January of 1950?

I am very aware, Just confused why he brought that up when we were talking about this winter being impressive or not... If he is basing this winter already being impressive because 1950 in January was good then he is jumping the gun lol.

[snow_wizard]

LOL why do i care about 1949-50?

 

The point I was making is that year also had the tell tale signs that something good was coming.  Sometimes the nasty weather in the leadup to a good cold wave can be pretty impressive.  Some members on here that have moved to Salt Lake are kind of envious right now because it has been so wild here.

[Weather101]

The point I was making is that year also had the tell tale signs that something good was coming. Sometimes the nasty weather in the leadup to a good cold wave can be pretty impressive.

Fair enough hope your right

[snow_wizard]

Another thing I'm going to do fairly soon is a post about the importance of the North Pacific index (NP) to our weather.  It just so happens the NP was very positive in November which almost always means a big cold wave will happen in either Dec or Jan.  Sometimes I don't explain myself as well as I should.

[TT-SEA]

The point I was making is that year also had the tell tale signs that something good was coming. Sometimes the nasty weather in the leadup to a good cold wave can be pretty impressive. Some members on here that have moved to Salt Lake are kind of envious right now because it has been so wild here.

 

The last week has been wild. We had a long inversion period before that and they have those all the time in SLC.

 

Plus they are going to do way better here with the set-up next week and beyond.

[High Desert Mat]

Tim, you must be really fun at parties huh?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS just compared this run to 18z/12z/6z and 00z/18z(cold runs)yesterday. Through HR 114 Bering Low #1 definitely further west energy held back towards Siberian Coast more in agreement with colder solutions. Now let's see how it handles Bering Low #2. We'll see how this all translates HR 120-156.

[Phil]

It's easier to forecast for the eastern half of the country as there is significantly more data to work from.

We also don't havel the Cascades/high mountains as a barricade. When the pattern allows it, the Arctic air just pours right in.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, you must be really fun at parties huh?

I don't talk weather at parties.

[Snowman5678]

 

The last week has been wild. We had a long inversion period before that and they have those all the time in SLC.

 

Plus they are going to do way better here with the set-up next week and beyond.

I don't know if Jim is referring to me or anything but I had the worst luck. I came back to Seattle for Thanksgiving right when the inversion started. Then I left a day before the inversion ended. The day after I got back to SLC an inversion set up which lasted a weekish. Finally went away a few days ago. Also pretty much every snowstorm has fallen apart within 48 hours of getting here for the month of November and this next "storm" tomorrow night into Friday has pretty much done the same thing. I am a bit envious of the active weather there. I love windstorms!

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144 Aleutian ridge is far more amplified than previous GFS runs..

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144-162 progression off Asia into southern Bering is very different from previous GFS runs with both intensity and placement. Ridge is far more amplified nosing over Aleutians. Next few frames will be telling.

[Gradient Keeper]

Through HR 156-174 Bering low #2 doesn't absorb/merge with the other piece of energy causing rapid cyclogenesis. 500mb in Gulf of Alaska not too different, from 18z there is just no low anchoring the ridge..

[liquidsnow]

I knew it!

 

No snow. Never snow. Only liquid snow.

 

So what now? Do we take a break from it all till next year?

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 210 more amplified than any other run, orientation is different though

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121000/gfs_z500a_namer_36.png

[TT-SEA]

Yet another GFS run that shows snow on Wednesday. Chalk that up to what, 8 now?

 

 

A little silly... 850mb temp is now shown to be -3C and here is the precipitation.   Its not going to snow in the lowlands.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_168_precip_p03.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Not a great run, very odd compared to any other run, including any GFS, CMC, or EURO.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is just owning the slowing caving GFS for next week.  The GFS is struggling which means it has no grasp on the pattern.   

[ju wong]

A little silly... 850mb temp is now shown to be -3C and here is the precipitation.   Its not going to snow in the lowlands.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_168_precip_p03.gif

BOLOGNA!!

[Snowman5678]

My mom went out and took some shots of the Snoqualmie this afternoon.

 

 

 

[High Desert Mat]

Well, the gfs blinked first. Onto the euro. It would be pretty sweet if the euro now started to turn towards what the gfs had earlier. Not likely but u never know. Lets just all be happy its the holidays and we're not all engulfed in a huge 1040mb ridge centered overhead and the temps are 54 everyday with partly cloudy skies. Amen

[HighlandExperience]

One thing is for sure. Washington ski resorts are going to be thrilled this coming weekend. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_snow72.72.0000.gif

[ju wong]

We're never going to get snow

[ju wong]

rip snow 2015

[FroYoBro]

rip snow 2015

#rip #payyourrespects

[TT-SEA]

One thing is for sure. Washington ski resorts are going to be thrilled this coming weekend.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_snow72.72.0000.gif

Love this! Hope the storm tonight and tomorrow dumps snow up there because Friday looks pretty dry up here. The next big snow is then Saturday night.

[ShawniganLake]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow72.180.0000.gif