December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Then maybe close out the year with a little rain?

[BLI snowman]

Looks like more of an occlusion, which was essentially what made 12-30-03 such a benign looking overperformer. Unfortunately it's the amount of dry advection leading up to it I'm more skeptical about. Xanax por favor!

 

 

Like I said last night, it really doesn't take a ton this time of year to make things interesting. 

[Timmy]

Like I said last night, it really doesn't take a ton this time of year to make things interesting.

 

Right, impeccable timing for us to have several marginal events and come out on the good side of them.

[Deweydog]

Like I said last night, it really doesn't take a ton this time of year to make things interesting.

No, but it's still consequential even if you're eyeing a pretty small scale event. For instance if you can't get dew points into the 20's it's a tough game to win regardless of the sun angle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Well today was my lucky day. Off topic but i own a automotive repair shop and today one of the lifts to raise the cars broke a cable! i moved out of the way just in time. been here 24 years and this is a first. Scary...

[TT-SEA]

Well today was my lucky day. Off topic but i own a automotive repair shop and today one of the lifts to raise the cars broke a cable! i moved out of the way just in time. been here 24 years and this is a first. Scary...

 

Glad you are still with us!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Glad you are still with us!  

Thanks man.

[jcmcgaffey]

Very intense rain/hail storm in Fremont right now just north of downtown Seattle.  Checked the radar but this is much more intense than the radar shows.  Very strong downburst of wind as well.

[slim1357]

Wire rope needs regular inspections. You got lucky. 

[Deweydog]

Well today was my lucky day. Off topic but i own a automotive repair shop and today one of the lifts to raise the cars broke a cable! i moved out of the way just in time. been here 24 years and this is a first. Scary...

Wow! That'll leave you a little shaky.

[Prairiedog]

Downtown Winthrop, just down the hill from Sun Mountain Lodge.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That's pretty scary.  Are you checking the rest of your cables?  I hope no one from OSHA reads this.

Yep all 4 other lifts look perfect. They were serviced 2 years ago. Called the maker of the lift and said it must of been a bad cable.

[bainbridgekid]

Snoqualmie Pass just passed last year's TOTAL seasonal snowfall. 

 

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Snoqualmie-Pass-passes-last-years-entire-snow-total-by-mid-December-362959481.html

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Well today was my lucky day. Off topic but i own a automotive repair shop and today one of the lifts to raise the cars broke a cable! i moved out of the way just in time. been here 24 years and this is a first. Scary...

Wow that's crazy. Glad you're okay.

[snow_wizard]

I thought some people might like this.  One of the best maps I've seen for lowland snowfall in Western WA.  The ECMWF obviously likes the idea of an overrunning snow event around day 9.  Some of this falls a couple of days earlier also.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Snoqualmie Pass just passed last year's TOTAL seasonal snowfall. 

 

http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Snoqualmie-Pass-passes-last-years-entire-snow-total-by-mid-December-362959481.html

 

11221284_10153488220854900_4863147946284178729_n.jpg

 

Totally amazing and there's a lot more to come.  This Nino has been good to us so far.

[MossMan]

So I got totally amped for winter weather today... I just started a second job...at the place I left 3yrs ago where I had worked for 7yrs. Worked as a full time landscaper at a senior community. Well I was part of the snow removal process during all the snowstorms from 2006 to 2013. Well I am back as very part time since I already have a full time job. Anyway I spend the day getting all the equipment ready for snow removal (which was severely neglected over the last 3yrs) got the chains and plow on the front of the mid deck mower, and the sweeper unit on the big enclosed cab mower. Can't wait!! This was 2008!

[TT-SEA]

Ground is still covered with snow here at my house.   

[HighlandExperience]

I thought some people might like this.  One of the best maps I've seen for lowland snowfall in Western WA.  The ECMWF obviously likes the idea of an overrunning snow event around day 9.  Some of this falls a couple of days earlier also.

 

That looks nice for Puget Sound area. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That looks nice for Puget Sound area. 

10 inches in bremerton

[seattleweatherguy]

I thought some people might like this. One of the best maps I've seen for lowland snowfall in Western WA. The ECMWF obviously likes the idea of an overrunning snow event around day 9. Some of this falls a couple of days earlier also.

That map shows 2 to 4 inches for the puget sound area? I pray that this verifies

[Randyc321]

10 inches in bremerton"

If only we could get that lucky.  It's been so long.  People would be buried in Seabeck.  Tahuya looks like it would see about 18".

[Guest Winterdog]

snow_wizard, on 18 Dec 2015 - 5:44 PM, said:

I thought some people might like this.  One of the best maps I've seen for lowland snowfall in Western WA.  The ECMWF obviously likes the idea of an overrunning snow event around day 9.  Some of this falls a couple of days earlier also.

That looks good.  It shows me getting 6"+.  Too bad it's out at day 9 and not just around the corner.  Is that a Weatherbell map?

[snow_wizard]

That map shows 2 to 4 inches for the puget sound area? I pray that this verifies

 

East Puget Sound lowlands is more like 6 to 8.

[snow_wizard]

That looks good.  It shows me getting 6"+.  Too bad it's out at day 9 and not just around the corner.  Is that a Weatherbell map?

 

 

yes...some of the snow falls a couple of days before that.  Most is in the 7 to 9.5 day period.

[snow_wizard]

Already back down into the 30s this evening.  Nice to see temps below 40 much of the time the past several days.

 

It's worth mentioning the CFS has had a number of runs showing notable cold in the NW in Janaury.  A number of runs have indicated a nationwide freeze while many others have showed the cold focused in the NW (shocking I know).  An emerging theme is for anomalous warmth developing over Northern Canada with much colder anoms over the US.  Interesting trend.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If only we could get that lucky.  It's been so long.  People would be buried in Seabeck.  Tahuya looks like it would see about 18".

It can happen man. Been a minute since we had a good upslope event. But it can drop 2 feet or more over here in the canal with that type off pattern.

[Randyc321]

It can happen man. Been a minute since we had a good upslope event. But it can drop 2 feet or more over here in the canal with that type off pattern.

It will be interesting to see my first winter weather at our new house.  I used to live at 375' in East Brem.  Now I live basically at zero on the water. 

[ShawniganLake]

Ground is still covered with snow here at my house.   

Here too.  The snow that fell yesterday was like cement, 5:1 ratios and we had a light freeze here overnight before the south wind kicked in.  Getting a few mixed showers here this evening at 36F.  There was some light wet snow falling above about 1000ft on my drive home. 

[snow_wizard]

Here too.  The snow that fell yesterday was like cement, 5:1 ratios and we had a light freeze here overnight before the south wind kicked in.  Getting a few mixed showers here this evening at 36F.  There was some light wet snow falling above about 1000ft on my drive home. 

 

That's pretty encouraging considering it will be colder next week.

[seattleweatherguy]

East Puget Sound lowlands is more like 6 to 8.

I am east puget sound lowlands so I hope it verifies. Now this is for after christmas

[westiztehbest]

Looks like this thing has peaked.  ECMWF has it near neutral by May.

 

 

 

 

The Scripps model is looking really good for next late summer/autumn leading into winter.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looking back at other strong Ninos at my location... December of 1972 and January of 1973 were insane.

 

Massive arctic blast with 8 inches of snow in early December... then very heavy rain for days on end around Christmas... then another arctic blast with 9 inches of snow in early January.

 

It did not go above freezing here from the evening of 12/3/72 until 12/14/72.     That is crazy.   That entire progression of snow and cold and then flooding rain and then back to snow and cold was all during a strong Nino.

[snow_wizard]

Looking back at other strong Ninos at my location... December of 1972 and January of 1973 were insane.

 

Massive arctic blast with 8 inches of snow in early December... then very heavy rain for days on end around Christmas... then another arctic blast with 9 inches of snow in early January.

 

It did not go above freezing here from the evening of 12/3/72 until 12/14/72.     That is crazy.   That entire progression of snow and cold and then flooding rain and then back to snow and cold was all during a strong Nino.

 

 

That was a good one alright.  Goes to show it's possible.

[Phil]

Wowzers...

[snow_wizard]

The Scripps model is looking really good for next late summer/autumn leading into winter.

 

fcst_made_2015-12_for_2016-09.jpg

 

Strong Nino to strong Nina transitions are often good for an Arctic blast the following winter.  A couple of great examples are 1942-43 and 1998-99.  If you consider the 1986 and 1987 Nino a major one then you could add 1988-89.  Going further back into the 19th century similar examples can be found.  In particular the winter of 1892-93 which featured perhaps the strongest Arctic blast ever recorded in Western WA.  One of these days I have to do a post about that one.  A truly amazing winter for these parts!

[snow_wizard]

Wowzers...

image.png

 

Thankfully the color is rapidly fading in the NW.

[Phil]

Already back down into the 30s this evening.  Nice to see temps below 40 much of the time the past several days.

 

It's worth mentioning the CFS has had a number of runs showing notable cold in the NW in Janaury.  A number of runs have indicated a nationwide freeze while many others have showed the cold focused in the NW (shocking I know).  An emerging theme is for anomalous warmth developing over Northern Canada with much colder anoms over the US.  Interesting trend.

I haven't given up on the January 1-10 period. Would like to see more poleward momentum transport during the next AAM cycle.

[TT-SEA]

That was a good one alright.  Goes to show it's possible.

 

 

My location also had multiple snow events in December of 1997 and January of 1998 with some very heavy rain events in between.   Almost constant storms for 6 weeks.   Again during a very strong Nino.   And then you have the insanity of 1965-66.

 

It seems that  this active pattern craziness should have been expected this year.    Not surprising at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS HR 96 low is developing a bit more slowly 2-5mb weaker than previous 3-4 GFS runs

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121900/gfs_z500_mslp_wpac_17.png