jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 gem laughs at us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 00z GFS had a +AO/NAO that run just like the Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 this ones over IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yup, I know it's too early but I might just throw in the towel right here Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ...... 200 hours out and throwing in the towel... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 When is spring? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 I knew that's the reaction is get, but im in kind of a bad mood already so optimism isn't here right now Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 The problem I'm seeing is the HP in Canada is shifting east to fast due to the +NAO the models are digesting. If there were more blocking in the way it wouldn't shift as fast, but instead, it builds into SE Canada allowing the system cut NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 What's the chance at a neutral/negative AO/NAO, that blocking needs to happen Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Need that HP to center itself in west/southwest Canada and more due north of the storm. The Euro was showing this in previous runs just had the timing off the last 2 runs. Only 12-14 Euro runs to go! LOL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Epic fail Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Just watch, everyone will throw in the towel now(including myself) then if it does shift SE then what. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 What's the chance at a neutral/negative AO/NAO that blocking needs to happenWell, I'd give it another 1-2 days and see what the teleconnections are showing. CFSv2 has the AO falling from its peak to neutral on Feb 1st and sliding negative... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Need that HP to center itself in west/southwest Canada and more due north of the storm. The Euro was showing this in previous runs just had the timing off the last 2 runs. Only 12-14 Euro runs to go! LOL... Yup. First thing I noticed as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Hate to say it - but the warm part of the LRC is due again soon. Here in SE WI, we had several days of warm temps in the 40's and 50's right around mid-December. Go back another 50 days or so and there were days where it was in the 70's in late October. So just extrapolating forward gets us to late January through mid-February where temps may be well above normal. Not boding well for big snowstorms for N IL and S WI. It’s looking wet, but not snowy - at least for the next 2-3 weeks. Sure hope I’m wrong about this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 The placement of the Canadian high is 100% CRUCIAL to this storm Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Well, I'd give it another 1-2 days and see what the teleconnections are showing. CFSv2 has the AO falling from its peak to neutral on Feb 1st and sliding negative... Look where the GGEM shows the high: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Look where the GGEM shows the high: That would be almost perfect placement...just need the storm to show up on the Canadian. I just find it very odd that the 00z GFS run did not dig the storm farther south into the 4 corners in late January. The pattern since this fall has been for storms to dig down into this region...so why not now??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 What's the chance at a neutral/negative AO/NAO, that blocking needs to happen Models show the AO dropping back negative on the 1st and the NAO to neutral. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nice clipper on the CMC for next weekend! 6" amounts across WI, MN. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 GFS Ensembles: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012500/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_40.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/00Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/00Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/00Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 That high is in a perfect spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 looking like a good hit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/00Z/f216/sfcmslpconus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/00Z/f216/850mbtempsconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Looks similar to 18z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 Not that the Euro has done me wonders this year, but it puts around .75" qpf all frozen the first week of February. Come on Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188 00Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 31-JAN 0.5 1.9 1008 87 80 0.00 551 544 SUN 18Z 31-JAN 3.7 -1.1 1010 76 87 0.02 550 542 MON 00Z 01-FEB 1.1 -2.0 1009 89 93 0.02 548 540 MON 06Z 01-FEB -1.0 -2.0 1010 92 94 0.00 547 539 MON 12Z 01-FEB -1.4 -3.8 1010 90 99 0.02 545 537 MON 18Z 01-FEB -2.6 -5.2 1011 79 100 0.13 543 534 TUE 00Z 02-FEB -3.7 -5.7 1011 82 100 0.16 541 533 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -4.7 -7.6 1014 89 99 0.19 539 529 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -4.7 -8.5 1014 90 98 0.09 537 526 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -4.1 -9.2 1015 88 97 0.06 536 524 WED 00Z 03-FEB -4.2 -10.0 1015 89 97 0.07 534 522 WED 06Z 03-FEB -4.5 -9.1 1016 88 98 0.06 534 521 WED 12Z 03-FEB -5.8 -10.5 1020 87 98 0.03 535 519 WED 18Z 03-FEB -6.1 -12.7 1026 76 47 0.00 538 518 THU 00Z 04-FEB -6.5 -10.6 1029 78 26 0.00 542 520 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 What about KOSH? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH LAT= 43.98 LON= -88.55 ELE= 807 00Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 00Z 25-JAN -2.9 -1.7 1016 84 7 553 541 MON 06Z 25-JAN -4.3 -1.2 1015 87 17 0.00 553 541 MON 12Z 25-JAN -4.6 -2.0 1013 89 45 0.00 551 541 MON 18Z 25-JAN 0.1 -1.2 1009 84 30 0.00 549 542 TUE 00Z 26-JAN 0.5 -1.8 1005 90 94 0.01 543 539 TUE 06Z 26-JAN -0.6 -5.8 1004 97 98 0.20 536 533 TUE 12Z 26-JAN -2.6 -8.9 1009 89 99 0.07 535 528 TUE 18Z 26-JAN -1.4 -9.1 1014 81 100 0.01 533 522 WED 00Z 27-JAN -2.7 -11.5 1019 83 99 0.03 533 518 WED 06Z 27-JAN -5.5 -14.9 1024 84 4 0.00 536 517 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -2.6 -6.3 1015 88 11 0.00 545 533 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -1.2 -7.2 1015 94 43 0.01 544 532 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -0.4 -7.6 1017 90 100 0.03 544 531 WED 00Z 03-FEB -1.6 -7.3 1015 91 92 0.03 544 532 WED 06Z 03-FEB -2.9 -6.5 1011 90 76 0.04 540 531 WED 12Z 03-FEB -6.1 -7.8 1010 87 100 0.16 535 528 WED 18Z 03-FEB -6.3 -11.8 1013 81 100 0.26 531 521 THU 00Z 04-FEB -6.0 -13.1 1017 80 80 0.12 533 519 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI LAT= 39.28 LON= -94.75 ELE= 1027 00Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 31-JAN 1.7 4.4 1007 89 39 0.00 555 549 SUN 18Z 31-JAN 7.1 3.6 1007 71 47 0.00 554 549 MON 00Z 01-FEB 4.8 1.5 1007 78 61 0.01 552 546 MON 06Z 01-FEB 1.8 1.4 1009 83 83 0.00 551 544 MON 12Z 01-FEB 0.8 0.3 1008 87 87 0.03 550 544 MON 18Z 01-FEB 1.7 1.5 1007 87 86 0.07 549 543 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.2 0.9 1006 94 73 0.12 547 542 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.8 0.2 1008 96 51 0.04 545 539 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.2 -1.9 1009 95 64 0.01 544 537 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.8 -4.0 1010 85 44 0.01 541 533 WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.7 -7.9 1012 82 65 0.01 537 527 WED 06Z 03-FEB -2.5 -9.6 1014 80 80 0.00 535 524 WED 12Z 03-FEB -2.2 -9.7 1017 82 77 0.01 536 522 WED 18Z 03-FEB -2.1 -11.0 1024 68 91 0.01 538 520 THU 00Z 04-FEB -3.6 -13.3 1029 65 33 0.00 542 520 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI LAT= 39.28 LON= -94.75 ELE= 1027 00Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 31-JAN 1.7 4.4 1007 89 39 0.00 555 549 SUN 18Z 31-JAN 7.1 3.6 1007 71 47 0.00 554 549 MON 00Z 01-FEB 4.8 1.5 1007 78 61 0.01 552 546 MON 06Z 01-FEB 1.8 1.4 1009 83 83 0.00 551 544 MON 12Z 01-FEB 0.8 0.3 1008 87 87 0.03 550 544 MON 18Z 01-FEB 1.7 1.5 1007 87 86 0.07 549 543 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.2 0.9 1006 94 73 0.12 547 542 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.8 0.2 1008 96 51 0.04 545 539 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.2 -1.9 1009 95 64 0.01 544 537 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.8 -4.0 1010 85 44 0.01 541 533 WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.7 -7.9 1012 82 65 0.01 537 527 WED 06Z 03-FEB -2.5 -9.6 1014 80 80 0.00 535 524 WED 12Z 03-FEB -2.2 -9.7 1017 82 77 0.01 536 522 WED 18Z 03-FEB -2.1 -11.0 1024 68 91 0.01 538 520 THU 00Z 04-FEB -3.6 -13.3 1029 65 33 0.00 542 520 Thanks just need it a little bit colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA LAT= 41.30 LON= -95.90 ELE= 981 00Z JAN25 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 12Z 31-JAN -0.2 1.8 1008 90 79 0.00 550 544 SUN 18Z 31-JAN 3.3 -0.5 1010 74 93 0.01 549 540 MON 00Z 01-FEB 1.4 -2.0 1009 86 92 0.02 547 539 MON 06Z 01-FEB -2.4 -2.0 1010 92 88 0.00 546 538 MON 12Z 01-FEB -2.1 -2.7 1011 86 91 0.00 545 536 MON 18Z 01-FEB -2.2 -4.3 1012 72 99 0.04 544 534 TUE 00Z 02-FEB -2.8 -4.9 1012 76 100 0.09 542 533 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -3.7 -7.1 1014 86 100 0.16 540 530 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -3.6 -7.5 1013 88 98 0.13 538 528 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -3.0 -8.3 1014 88 99 0.07 537 526 WED 00Z 03-FEB -3.5 -8.7 1013 91 96 0.08 534 523 WED 06Z 03-FEB -2.9 -8.9 1014 90 99 0.11 533 522 WED 12Z 03-FEB -5.7 -10.4 1019 87 96 0.05 534 519 WED 18Z 03-FEB -6.0 -12.5 1025 75 59 0.00 537 518 THU 00Z 04-FEB -6.0 -12.7 1028 78 23 0.00 541 519 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 i would post the snowfall map if i had weatherbell , as is, i have to get up in the morning. Looking forward to see if the Euro maintains this track or similar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 00z Euro...to warm for N IL but track def shifted quite a bit...rain/snow line is up near the IL/WI border... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2016 Report Share Posted January 25, 2016 That is a screamin' look to the jet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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