Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Money]

Yeah, was it that far North before?  No, it wasn't.

 

This was 12z at HR 168: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2015121912/USA_PRMSL_msl_168.gif

[Tom]

lol @ gfs, I'll have whatever it's smoking.

You smoking anything good lately??

[clintbeed1993]

This was 12z at HR 168: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF/2015121912/USA_PRMSL_msl_168.gif

 

Pretty weak sauce.  This run is much stronger and thus a different look.

[Tom]

00z Euro says..."here blizzard, blizzard, blizzard"....

[winterfreak]

Congrats central NE to the northern fringes of the sub forum.

[Tom]

Look at all the warming trying to poke up into the arctic near Greenland as we close out the month of December...same goes for Alaska...trough begins to deepen south of the Aleutians Day 9 as the Pacific re-arranges.

[GDR]

Congrats central NE to the northern fringes of the sub forum.

still a long time to worry about every model run.

[gosaints]

PNA might help us out. Still no signs of long term AO NAO help

[Snowshoe]

Lock it in!

 

00z Euro says..."here blizzard, blizzard, blizzard"....

[Tom]

12z GFS...looking like the 00z Euro just not as amped up...

[bud2380]

Gfs with a significant change from last night. Looks much more in line with euro. Looks like another rain maker for eastern Iowa.

[james1976]

Im confused. GFS looks to have a Xmas eve storm now and then something for the 26th. What's all going on here? That model is a mess. 

[james1976]

And then GFS is showing the big storm for the 28th-29th way south and east.

[Tom]

12z GEFS firing up an impressive NW NAMER ridge as we open up January...looks like Mother Nature wants to play ball finally and start fresh out of the gates in 2016.

[jcwxguy]

12z ggem 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015122012/gem_asnow_us_40.png

[Money]

gosaints is in a good spot for this...

 

ukie at hr 144

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Tom]

12z Euro pressing a strong HP along the Canadian border...

[Tom]

12z Euro looks disorganized as the model mayhem continues...

[OKwx2k4]

All systems go for a hardcore weather change after the 1st of the year. Plenty of time to change but when all teleconnections flip so dramatically at once, you have a pretty good idea what's coming down the road. Hoping the southern storm train doesn't magically shut down once we flip.

[CentralNebWeather]

What do the euro snowfall maps look like for 12z?

[Tom]

What do the euro snowfall maps look like for 12z?

W NE/W KS/CO get hit...not a good hit for your region...

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks Tom. Will keep tracking this week. I'm sure much change is still ahead

[Geos]

12z GEFS firing up an impressive NW NAMER ridge as we open up January...looks like Mother Nature wants to play ball finally and start fresh out of the gates in 2016.

 

I noticed that on the 0z run last night. Ridge wants to build over the "top".

 

It comes close at 180 hours.

 

 

East based Greenland block high starting around the 29th.

 

[Geos]

GEFS temperatures anomaly outlooks. Can see a downwards trend clearly. Note the evacuation of the really cold pool in central Russia/Siberia to the east.

 

 

 

[Geos]

I found the point at which the stratospheric vortex starts to weaken at it's core.

Next weekend the circular shape start to elongate and stretch out.

 

 

 

and then two distinct lobes are seen. Above this the vortex is a bit more circular, but will inevitably split from bottom to top.

 

Lowest level of the stratosphere the vortex is split at day 10.

 

 

and a level above that is split at day 10.

70 hPa isn't quite split at this stage.

 

[winterfreak]

Really hope January gets us to at least seasonable averages. Snow looks like a figment of the imagination for the foreseeable future.

[Maxim]

Really hope January gets us to at least seasonable averages. Snow looks like a figment of the imagination for the foreseeable future.

not likely at this point, especially the further east you go.

[CentralNebWeather]

Have watched Jim flowers Facebook video. He says models are really struggling with the storm in the pacific and will for days until closer to the coast so he is not believing anything yet

 

Also nws Hastings is fearful of a potential ice storm this weekend. I would sure wait on that but here is what they say.

 

This is a low-confidence forecast regarding any

timing...placement...and precipitation type over the weekend. I hope for

more consistency and agreement in future numerical forecasts...but

again...the potential for a long-lived elevated warm layer is kind

of troubling for freezing rain potential. Keep up on future

forecasts as things evolve. If the trough slows down as trends

indicate...weatherwise...this may be another interesting Holiday

weekend.

[winterfreak]

Wow the 18z GFS is nuts. Shows 1-2 feet of snow in Oklahoma and south central Missouri.

[mlgamer]

Meanwhile, the 18z GFS drops two feet of snow in central OK up to SW MO for the after Christmas storm.  I wonder what else we'll see on the models during the coming week...

[james1976]

GFS seems fairly consistent with the last 2 runs with the 2 systems later this week. The one for 28th-29th is all over the place yet.

[winterfreak]

That is some intense wrap around snow on that run. Some thunder snow would definitely be in the cards if that panned out.

[Naddan85]

http://i.imgur.com/PEchNXk.png

 

I'm going to have to plan ahead for next Monday according to OAX.

[GDR]

That is some intense wrap around snow on that run. Some thunder snow would definitely be in the cards if that panned out.

I love me some thunder snow

[OKwx2k4]

Wow the 18z GFS is nuts. Shows 1-2 feet of snow in Oklahoma and south central Missouri.

Some reason the 18z always does crazy stuff like that. Beautiful run though.

[jaster220]

Wow the 18z GFS is nuts. Shows 1-2 feet of snow in Oklahoma and south central Missouri.

 

Meanwhile, the 18z GFS drops two feet of snow in central OK up to SW MO for the after Christmas storm.  I wonder what else we'll see on the models during the coming week...

 

Of course we have any number of options on the table at this range, but its intersting to note that the original BSR correlation placement would indeed indicate a further SE solution than what has been typical this early winter. The rule isn't perfect, but that track which the Euro has also flashed may be as viable as any. Key is the placement of the HP coming in from Canada imho.

 

If you look closely, you will see the lower 48 super-imposed over the Berring Sea and the placement correlates with central TN apps runner

 

 

[winterfreak]

It obviously won't pan out that way but fun to look at. Expecting a cold rain and nothing more.

[CentralNebWeather]

Gfs at 177 hours. Models change by the run.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Map at 201 hours.

[winterfreak]

Just like I expected. Zilch and raging thunderstorms with the freezing line in the north woods.