Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 18z GFS coming in a bit weaker/southeast than 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I am sure not liking this SE shift from the GFS. We will have to see if this is now the trend or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Even though 06z/18z GFS doesnt take in upper air soundings, the GFS continues to shift the storm SE... 18z GFS coming in a bit weaker/southeast than 12z. HP is centered over the Dakotas now....hmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Even though 06z/18z GFS doesnt take in upper air soundings, the GFS continues to shift the storm SE... HP is centered over the Dakotas now....hmmm Ends up taking the low to the south of Chicago. Not gonna cut up north with the HP to the north/west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 18z GFS coming in a bit weaker/southeast than 12z. It's now showing you getting some snow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 It's now showing you getting some snow... Yeah QPF/precip fields look really funky though, but still shows 6+ in most of Southern/Western WI and 12-16 in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Ends up taking the low to the south of Chicago. Not gonna cut up north with the HP to the north/westThat first wave which dumps 6-10" of snow in the Dakotas is probably the culprit on this run. Where this first wave lays down snow is going to be crucial as to where the underlying storm track forms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I'm not quite sure I buy this just yet...it is the 18z GFS and we are talking 4-6 days away.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 The thing im liking is the positioning of the high. It's getting a bit stronger and more west each run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 It's the 18z guys. Tonight's runs will tell a lot more. Seems like the models have trended SE today though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 The thing im liking is the positioning of the high. It's getting a bit stronger and more west each runThat is true, it's almost shifting 50-100 miles west each run on the GFS...yesterday 12z GFS had it over upstate NY...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 4 PM NWS Hastings discussion: SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THIS IS THE TIME FRAME WHENTHE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS NORTHEASTWARDPUSH...AND WHILE THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWED A MARKEDIMPROVEMENT IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/LOCATION COMPARED TO THE 00ZEC/06Z GFS...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF IMPROVEMENT TO BE MADE.SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GFS REMAINS ON THE QUICKER SIDE OFTHINGS...MOVING THE MAIN LOW INTO THE SERN CORNER OF KS...WITH THEECMWF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK. THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURSMONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF REMAINS ABOUT 6 HRS SLOWER THANTHE GFS...AND JUST A TOUCH TO THE WEST OF GFS TRACK. ATMOSPHEREREMAINS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TYPE TO BE SNOW...AND THIS PATH COULDMAKE FOR AN INTERESTING START TO THE WORK WEEK. BOTH MODELSCURRENTLY SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...THOSEWITH TRAVEL PLANS REALLY NEED TO STAY UP TO DATE TO THE LATESTFORECAST. PLENTY YET TO BE IRONED OUT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 It's the 18z guys. Tonight's runs will tell a lot more. Seems like the models have trended SE today though.True but the models continue shifting the high farther to the west. This storm isn't going to cut and go into that huge high pressure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 A windy snow ice rain storm. That about covers everything! Green Bay AFD: A SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGINGSOMEWHAT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHSUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN MONDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC ANDONTARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. ASIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE/RAIN STORM WITH STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE IFTHESE MODELS ARE RIGHT. Maybe 3-5" central and northern WI Friday night Saturday. Hopefully that helps out on Monday. JET ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE AN INVERTED SURFACE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS CHICAGO AFTER MIDNIGHT CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THIS PATTERN USUALLY PRETTY GOOD FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT AND COLD AIR IS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO MAYBE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW THERE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Not one bit surprised that the 18z GFS is having a tough time with this as it doesn't sample upper air data. Being extremely cautious with getting on board with the runs from today and yesterday as we have been burned way too many times in these situations past. Would not be completely shocked if the main event ended up scooting east/southeast (of Nebraska) which would remain mostly rain for those areas (side note: HPC agreeing with track that takes storm east as well). Nevertheless, I sure hope I am wrong. The blocking high up north is KEY in addition to a true Ark-la-tex Low forming. Update: Per Jim Flowers, this post is void as dynamics agree with afternoon EURO and GFS output error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 My God, can i order the 18z GFS?? Lol. This is one heck of a storm in the making for atleast some of us in here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Des Moines early take on it:THE NEXT MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE A DEEPENING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTING NORTHEAST. I THINK THE MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN HOW THE LOW IS DEEPENING BUT INITIALLY THIS WILL BE A RAIN PRODUCER WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. THIS ONE MAY BE A POTENTIAL SNOW PRODUCER FOR US AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED BUT WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL FLOODING THREATS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I'm in Evanston, IL and am quite happy to see the SE trend continue on the 18z. Close to 200 miles SE of the 6z. Brings the low in just South of Chicago and shows some legitimate snow amounts fairly close to Chicago. Still a long ways to go here. Many more models to ride so buckle up! Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Jim flowers says GFS has trended east but is thrown out showing classic error of weakening the lead upper air low....Keeping lead low intact yields the euro solution...low aloft is heading toward southern Iowa in classic ark-la-tex fashion...similar to euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looks like it will be euro vs gfs and Canadian to see what model does the best as of today 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Looks like it will be euro vs gfs and Canadian to see what model does the best as of todayLike where u sit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I could see it go southeast if high to the north is too strong. Being from Nebraska and the amount of storms that miss us I wont feel comfortable until snow is falling 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Like where u sitI like where you sit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Thanks guys. Feeling the storm tracking love today. This is fun for me as I learn more about weather from this forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 I like where you sitNot a bad spot here. models really struggling where to put that high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 22, 2015 Report Share Posted December 22, 2015 Thanks guys. Feeling the storm tracking love today. This is fun for me as I learn more about weather from this forum.It's going to be pretty hard to miss you I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z Euro Para... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Here is the latest from Andrew from the weathercentre site. He really explains the potential and made me realize this storm is still in the Aleutians and I am worried about a 50 mile shift se 5 days away. Here is the link. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2015/12/december-26-29-potentially-significant.html?m=1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Dgex! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 God I love the DGEX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Has the dgex ever been right? God love it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowO Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Rarely is that ever correct Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 that model still exists? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 If it would be correct it would be an epic blizzard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 zoomed in euro para top photo 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Local met posted thishttp://addins.kwwl.com/blogs/weather/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Gfs looks like it's moving even further southeast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 GFS is definitely south this run. Arklatex type track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Out to hour 126 the 00z is definitely sgnificantly further SE. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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