12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Money]

Nice

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks Tom.

[CentralNebWeather]

Maybe that first wave shifts south and that will be my decent snow and not the main show

[Tom]

Phase 8 on the Euro showing up Day 8-10...good bye to the torchy pattern...I knew that building the snow pack to the NW of the sub-forum would pay dividends as the Winter matures.  We are seeing a classic example of this now as heights rise over a deeper snow pack.

[winterfreak]

Ugly ice and sleet signal down here. Not what we need.

[Tom]

Arcitc attack still being advertised on the Euro over the fresh snow pack...day time highs in the single digits over parts of NE/IA/Dakotas/MN on NYE...

[bud2380]

There must be some ice and sleet to the south of snow. Otherwise I would expect more snow from southern Iowa into Illinois.

 

Yes, looks like Iowa could get hit hard with ice if the Euro is right. 

 

Precip moving in with temps below freezing but 850s above 0.

 

http://i.imgur.com/rJ06H8T.png

 

http://i.imgur.com/CL4dvst.png

 

http://i.imgur.com/myORMqd.png

[Geos]

Thanks for posting the maps Bud.

 

Here's the graphic showing MJO phase 8 temperature tendencies.

[Tony]

Euro has been showing ice for several runs now. Could be a nasty day for many if this pans out.

[Maxim]

can't wait for some more heavy rain... congrats to those in NE though.

looking good, no way I get anything more than a sloppy inch from this (doubt I even get that much tbh.)

[Jaycee]

12z Euro full run....

OMG yes please!! I'm near Rochester, MN and that absolutely bullseyes my area. Would be awesome to see! Also, temp profiles look favorable, anyone know what the ratios look like during this?

[Money]

Ice in s wi also?

[Yerf]

Is this still a Monday Afternoon/night system for Eastern IA, WI, and IL?

[Tony]

Just look at all that moisture transport from the GOM into the system. Looks like some sub-tropical moisture feed as well. This is going to be one heck of a storm with an abundance of qpf. Fun stuff to say the least

[OKwx2k4]

+AO, neutral NAO, -EPO and neutral PNA....

This in and of itself suggests that there may be more of an eastward shift to come. Specifically the neutral pna. Seeing the Euro start making moves is also a plus in that direction. Just wish we all had a little more cold air.

[CentralNebWeather]

I have gotten in to watching Jim flowers Facebook video updates several times a day. He is not a lover of the gfs.

 

Jim Flowers KMTV Meteorologist

Quote:

GFS out to lunch, euro in and continues trend of past several days, old school agrees with euro, an upper air low is heading for St. Joe MO and southern Iowa. pardon the singing but big flakes falling as I'm recording this.

 

Watch if you have time about 3 minutes in length.

[Geos]

^Why is every model trending towards the GFS solution then!?

 

GEFS ensembles agree on baroclinic zone location(s)

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

^Why is every model trending towards the GFS solution then!?

 

GEFS ensembles agree on baroclinic zone location(s)

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122312/gfs-ens_T2m_us_24.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015122312/gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_24.png

That's pretty much my question as well. An outlier is an outlier regardless of which model it is.

[Snowshoe]

A little comic relief. 

 

[Naddan85]

 

 

THIS TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH AND

EAST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AND IF THAT FARTHER SOUTH/EAST TREND

CONTINUES...WE WILL NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION.

HOWEVER...MORE SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY DROPPING INTO MEAN WESTERN

TROUGH POSITION MAY AID IN KICKING LOW MORE NORTHERLY WITH

TIME...AND CLOSER TO OUR AREA. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IN TIME WHICH

SCENARIO WINS OUT.

 

Latest from OAX.

[CentralNebWeather]

I saw that. Most nws offices in the region that I have read don't want to jump on the gfs yet. We will see what is correct in the next 6 days

[james1976]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

[Money]

GFS is back NW and lacking snow only a band of 3-5 in Iowa/W WI

[CentralNebWeather]

18z gfs looks weaker in places and appears to be northwest of 12z run. Not that we should ever trust 06 or 18z models. Maybe I am not reading it correctly.

[NH4NU]

18z GFS looks almost identical to 12z and actually shows little to nothing for Nebraska. 

[Money]

18z GFS looks almost identical to 12z and actually shows little to nothing for Nebraska.

It looks nothing like 12z

[jcwxguy]

Euro ensembles appear east of the operational 

[james1976]

It looks slower like the Euro.

[NH4NU]

It looks nothing like 12z

How do you figure? Aside from the storm tracking a tad further west into IL the output is exactly the same on the western side of the Low.  

[winterfreak]

It's definitely warmer this run though. Not a trend we want to see but it's the 18z so we'll see. Concerning given the positive trends we've seen the last few days.

[Jaycee]

I feel bad for my Nebraska folks, especially if the 18z were to pan out. Yuck. Snowhole in full effect according to instantweathermaps.

[Tony]

This does not look right..especially around Northern IL.

[MarcusBeier]

Ive seen a few models that paint up to 6+ for Lower MI, what is that from?

[Tony]

Ive seen a few models that paint up to 6+ for Lower MI, what is that from?

Tropicaltidbits

[winterfreak]

Big step backwards.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=150.

[gosaints]

Gfs back to the icestorm look for lots of.folks

[CentralNebWeather]

Tropical tidbits site and instant weather maps site show differences on the 18z gfs. Someone explained that recently but I remember what the issues between the sites can be.

[gosaints]

Tropical tidbits site and instant weather maps site show differences on the 18z gfs. Someone explained that recently but I remember what the issues between the sites can be.

Thats alot of ice on the tropicaltidbits. Sleet as well

[jcwxguy]

12z euro para 

[Tony]

Thats alot of ice on the tropicaltidbits. Sleet as well

Kinda was figuring that. Wonderful...can't wait.