12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[ToastedRavs]

I think the Clarinda, IA northward to Storm Lake, IA are prime position for a foot or more.

[gabel23]

Omaha and Lincoln are still sitting good, not so much for me. 

[Geos]

43 degrees here in Evanston with the sun peaking out.

 

A bit hard to imagine any significant winter precip this close to the lake tomorrow.

 

Just wait until later this afternoon, it will drop. It's slowly dropping here.

[East Dubzz]

Tom, do you have a map that shows the QPF totals ? You say Dubuque stays all snow, but that would only be 5", so does the euro only show .5" of QPF?

[ToastedRavs]

Looking great in DSM:

MON 12Z 28-DEC  -2.3    -2.2    1020      70     100    0.08     561     546    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.8    -5.3    1009      87      98    0.59     556     549    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -1.3    -6.7    1002      93      97    0.61     542     540    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -2.4    -5.8    1003      91      79    0.19     546     543    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -4.7    -7.9    1012      88      85    0.02     549     540    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -5.6    -7.9    1018      85      12    0.00     555     540    

[Tom]

I think DSM will issue Winter Storm warnings for Heavy Snow...it looks like a lock.

 

Nice to hear it moved SE. Im feeling good where im at.

I think you are good to go for heavy snow.

 

Omaha and Lincoln are still sitting good, not so much for me. 

Your right on the edge now...depends on how far west the defo band can migrate...going to be a close call to see if you will get those lolipop totals.

[ToastedRavs]

Tom, do you have a map that shows the QPF totals ? You say Dubuque stays all snow, but that would only be 5", so does the euro only show .5" of QPF?

 

 

Here the numbers for DBQ

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -1.6    -3.3    1031      63       3    0.00     568     543    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -1.1    -2.2    1025      65      71    0.00     565     545    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -2.0     0.5    1015      84      98    0.35     561     549    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -1.4    -5.5    1004      88      91    0.46     547     544    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -0.9    -2.0     999      93      93    0.34     538     539    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -2.1    -5.9    1006      91      78    0.01     548     543    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -1.2    -6.0    1014      80      36    0.00     555     544    

[Tom]

Tom, do you have a map that shows the QPF totals ? You say Dubuque stays all snow, but that would only be 5", so does the euro only show .5" of QPF?

Actually, at second glance, it may change over to sleet...850's start off below 0C but then come close to above 0C as the SLP tracks right over.  It has roughly 1.0-1.25qpf

[ToastedRavs]

Omaha 12 z Euro

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -9.2    -5.6    1031      66       1    0.00     564     540    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -6.7    -5.3    1023      71      99    0.02     559     541    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -4.4    -7.6    1012      90     100    0.50     553     544    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -4.5    -8.1    1006      89      95    0.78     546     541    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -4.9    -9.2    1009      89      85    0.08     547     539    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -8.3    -9.9    1015      86      68    0.05     550     538    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -8.5    -9.1    1021      86       9    0.00     553     537    

[East Dubzz]

Thanks, looks like still a pretty good mix around here, as it only shows 5" of rain but over an inch of precipitation.

[ToastedRavs]

Somebody always asks for OSH so here you go

MON 12Z 28-DEC  -1.9    -2.6    1031      66      18    0.00     565     541    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.7    -4.6    1025      65      50    0.00     562     542    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -2.4    -1.0    1013      84     100    0.27     557     546    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -1.1    -5.4    1003      91      73    0.48     539     536    TUE 12Z 29-DEC   1.8    -2.7    1001      95      93    0.20     540     539    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -0.2    -3.1    1008      90      66    0.02     551     544    WED 00Z 30-DEC  -0.4    -6.0    1017      89      42    0.01     556     543    WED 06Z 30-DEC  -1.5    -6.8    1019      91      15    0.00     556     541    

[hlcater]

yea, the QPF values and the euro's snow band make no sense

[East Dubzz]

Actually, at second glance, it may change over to sleet...850's start off below 0C but then come close to above 0C as the SLP tracks right over. It has roughly 1.0-1.25qpf

Yes, that makes a little more sense. About what is expected around here, sleet and snow mix. It's more just a matter of how much for each.

[Tom]

Thanks, looks like still a pretty good mix around here, as it only shows 5" of rain but over an inch of precipitation.

Any more of a SE shift and your going to see all snow...so close...

[ToastedRavs]

And here is IOW (not looking bad but I believe the warm layer is around 750mb so still expecting ice, mainly sleet obviously)

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -0.6    -2.3    1029      65       1    0.00     567     545    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -0.7    -1.0    1021      77     100    0.10     564     547    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.0    -1.4    1011      84      88    0.45     559     551    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -0.2    -2.5     999      91      94    0.56     541     542    TUE 06Z 29-DEC   0.0    -0.7     999      94      95    0.20     542     543    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -2.0    -6.7    1008      89      87    0.00     550     543    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -2.8    -6.3    1016      81      11    0.00     557     544    

[East Dubzz]

Any more of a SE shift and your going to see all snow...so close...

Yes, I am ever so close. Would be great to see the cold air be a little stronger than advertised by some of these models, I'd be sitting very pretty. But, it's shaping up to be one big sloppy storm around here.

[Money]

How does it look here tom?

[gabel23]

 

And here is IOW (not looking bad but I believe the warm layer is around 750mb so still expecting ice, mainly sleet obviously)

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -0.6    -2.3    1029      65       1    0.00     567     545    MON 12Z 28-DEC  -0.7    -1.0    1021      77     100    0.10     564     547    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.0    -1.4    1011      84      88    0.45     559     551    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -0.2    -2.5     999      91      94    0.56     541     542    TUE 06Z 29-DEC   0.0    -0.7     999      94      95    0.20     542     543    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -2.0    -6.7    1008      89      87    0.00     550     543    TUE 18Z 29-DEC  -2.8    -6.3    1016      81      11    0.00     557     544    

KOLU if you get a chance. 

[winterfreak]

Still a close call down here. EURO SE trend can't hurt though.

[ToastedRavs]

KOLU if you get a chance. 

MON 12Z 28-DEC -10.7    -6.5    1026      63      56    0.00     558     538    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -8.0    -7.7    1017      82      97    0.11     552     539    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -7.3    -9.9    1011      87      95    0.31     547     538    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -8.0   -10.6    1013      87      92    0.10     546     536    TUE 12Z 29-DEC -10.8   -10.9    1018      85      73    0.04     549     536    

[NEJeremy]

So I have the Euro, CMC, NAM, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and hi res NAM in my corner vs the UKIE and the GFS. I'm feeling pretty confident of 6+" tomorrow

[Madtown]

Madison stay frozen?

[ToastedRavs]

So I have the Euro, CMC, NAM, WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW, and hi res NAM in my corner vs the UKIE and the GFS. I'm feeling pretty confident of 6+" tomorrow

 

 

I think you and I will both see more than six inches.  However, I bet the highest totals are smack dab in between us. Enjoy!!

[Tom]

How does it look here tom?

Your area looks to start off as snow, then changeover to a mix at the tail end as warmer air tries to filter into the region.

[ToastedRavs]

Madison stay frozen?

MON 12Z 28-DEC  -1.9    -3.0    1029      65      11    0.00     565     543    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.9    -4.4    1022      70     100    0.09     562     545    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -2.3    -3.3    1007      85      97    0.54     554     548    TUE 06Z 29-DEC   0.0    -2.2    1000      95      98    0.35     537     537    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -0.3    -3.2    1002      95      79    0.11     544     542    TUE 18Z 29-DEC   0.1    -5.3    1011      83      65    0.00     553     544    

[Grizzcoat]

Euro shows 1.5 qpf for DSM,, but about half of that snow... Traveling right now so limited,, but Euro must have warm air at 750mb or so,,otherwise snow totals using what toasted ravs posted would be much higher then Euro snow map shows,, and that should include sleet etc...

[Grizzcoat]

If someone could post a sounding Euro for DSM, that would be great.

[Geos]

MON 12Z 28-DEC -10.7    -6.5    1026      63      56    0.00     558     538    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -8.0    -7.7    1017      82      97    0.11     552     539    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -7.3    -9.9    1011      87      95    0.31     547     538    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -8.0   -10.6    1013      87      92    0.10     546     536    TUE 12Z 29-DEC -10.8   -10.9    1018      85      73    0.04     549     536    

 

You dont' have to worry about anything, all snow.

[Geos]

MON 12Z 28-DEC  -1.9    -3.0    1029      65      11    0.00     565     543    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.9    -4.4    1022      70     100    0.09     562     545    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -2.3    -3.3    1007      85      97    0.54     554     548    TUE 06Z 29-DEC   0.0    -2.2    1000      95      98    0.35     537     537    TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -0.3    -3.2    1002      95      79    0.11     544     542    TUE 18Z 29-DEC   0.1    -5.3    1011      83      65    0.00     553     544    

 

Wish you could see the 700mb temps. Madison will probably escape the ice.

 

A met on AMWX mentioned if the low occlude earlier then the warm air advection will get chocked off earlier and may not make it above freezing under the low pressure center or near it.

[hlcater]

the hires-NAM is in everyones corner, it kills most of the state with 8-10

[Geos]

NMM painting some LES up this way tonight.

 

 

Idea of what temps will be tonight as CAA really kicks in.

 

[jcwxguy]

.

[ToastedRavs]

Meteogram for DSM. FYI, if you haven't used this tool...it's pretty easy to understand and adjust.  Wish it included the Euro.

 

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kdsm&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=12&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

[ToastedRavs]

Looks like Flowers in Omaha going 7 to 8" for Omaha with locally higher amounts.  So, if he looked at Euro maps, I guess he isn't buying them and probably pushing the heavier band to his east

[gabel23]

MON 12Z 28-DEC -10.7    -6.5    1026      63      56    0.00     558     538    MON 18Z 28-DEC  -8.0    -7.7    1017      82      97    0.11     552     539    TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -7.3    -9.9    1011      87      95    0.31     547     538    TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -8.0   -10.6    1013      87      92    0.10     546     536    TUE 12Z 29-DEC -10.8   -10.9    1018      85      73    0.04     549     536    

That would be 8-12" of snow if I get ratio's between 15-20:1. That would be nice. 

[Geos]

I think if you live anywhere east of the low track and north of I-80 to about Milwaukee, the likely hood of the power going out tomorrow is high. There's some ominous signs that the surface will stay below freezing for awhile, then there's the high winds.

 

LOT pointed this out.

 

1113 AM CST    HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES YET TO THE HEADLINES FOR MONDAY. DO  ANTICIPATE UPGRADING THE WATCHES TO WARNINGS AND ISSUING  SOME SORT OF WINTER ADVISORY HEADLINE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH.  WE HOPE TO HAVE UPDATED HEADLINES OUT BY ABOUT 2PM CST. THIS  CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREMELY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH PLENTY OF  LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE  TRENDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH  PRECIPITATION FALLS IN WHAT TYPE. CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE EAST  WINDS WILL BE...GUSTING TO 45-50 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ICE  ACCRETION ON TREES AND POWERLINES TO CAUSE HUGE PROBLEMS. WINDS  LOOK TO BE EVEN STRONGER ONTO THE ILLINOIS SHORE...WITH GUSTS UP  TO 60 MPH OR SO. IN ADDITION TO LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING  POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKESHORE FLOODING...THE WINDS COULD BE  STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR WIND DAMAGE THEMSELVES. DID A QUICK  COMPARISON TO THE HALLOWEEN 2014 WIND AND LAKESHORE FLOODING  EVENT...AND THE MINOR LIMITING FACTOR TOMORROW WILL BE SHORTER  FETCH DUE TO EAST WIND DIRECTION ON MONDAY VS. THE DUE NORTH WINDS  IN THE HALLOWEEN '14 EVENT. WILL STILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE  ISSUING A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING TOMORROW FOR COOK AND LAKE IL.  

[Scott26]

I think it's likely we will see widespread power outages tomorrow especially west of I-55. Ice accumulations on power lines and very strong winds are a very bad combination.

[Madtown]

South n east then south a little more.. it's going over chi town people.

[mlgamer]

You guys that post the great snow maps (especially the Euro)...if you can get down to I-70 in NE KS without too much trouble I would appreciate it.  I get cut off the bottom on a lot of the maps.

[Geos]

South n east then south a little more.. it's going over chi town people.

 

Yeah if the low track over or slightly east ( or if CAA is stronger than forecast) of Chicago, it could be like Montreal during that severe ice storm back in 98.