Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think it moves NW to where the GFS is. Maybe a little further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Thanks guys. Just looking at others ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 It be interesting to see the euro if it following the trend of Canadian gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 My guess is it lines up with the GFS maybe more nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think it will be a similar setup but will have a more smooth track. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 WPC is going with a model blend. They are not discounting the GFS but believe it may be too far north. They are throwing out the NAM on day 3 forward though. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND THROUGH DAY 2...AND A NON NAM SOLUTION BY DAY 3 CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW FORMATION ON SUNDAY MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...EVENTUALLY TRANSFERRING TO THE LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NE NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS OVERALL LARGER SCALE PATTERN SEEMS WELL ESTABLISHED AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THIS SYSTEM HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER INTERNAL DIFFERENCES/DETAILS WHICH MOSTLY BEGINS TO EXPAND MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY IN THE EJECTION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. VERY GOOD CLUSTERING IS SEEN AMONG THE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW TRACK. THE 0Z GFS REMAINS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...BUT IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 18Z RUN. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH...BUT NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS IS A RELIABLE TREND OR IF THE GFS IS JUST AN OUTLIER. IT IS INTERESTING THAT BOTH THE 18Z AND 0Z RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN ANY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS FROM 12Z...WHICH ARE GENERALLY MUCH MORE CLUSTERED WITH THE OZ NAM AND 12Z ECMWF/GEM/UKMET. THINK THE 0Z RUNS OF THE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE WILL GIVE A STRONG HINT AS TO WHETHER THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS REASONABLE OR NOT. FOR NOW THE GFS WOULD APPEAR TO REPRESENT A LESS LIKELY SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 2...ALTHOUGH NOT AN IMPOSSIBLE SOLUTION. THE 12Z GEM IS A BIT SLOW WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT ITS SENSIBLE WEATHER. THUS THE WPC PREFERENCE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS TYPE OF BLEND WOULD DOWNPLAY THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT STILL INCORPORATE SOME OF IT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. AS WE HEAD THROUGH TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. BY THIS TIME THE 0Z NAM BECOMES A FLAT AND WEAK OUTLIER...AND IS THUS NOT PREFERRED GIVEN IT LIES OUTSIDE THE REASONABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. WITH REGARDS TO THE NORTHWARD EXTENT...THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW THAT THE 0Z GFS HAS TRENDED SOUTHEAST. THUS THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH TIMING...WITH THE 0Z GFS THE QUICKEST SOLUTION AND THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM THE SLOWEST...AND THE UKMET IN BETWEEN. NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE THE GFS FAST AND ECMWF SLOW WITH SYSTEMS...AND MORE OFTEN THAN NOT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN SEEMS TO VERIFY BEST. THUS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 12Z UKMET...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 0Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IS P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Jim flowers now singing the eagles song peaceful easy feeling on his latest Facebook video. God love him. Says throw out nam and he he says amounts might increase. Believe him or not but he is fun with his love of weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Ukie 995 right over Chicago at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Jim flowers now singing the eagles song peaceful easy feeling on his latest Facebook video. God love him. Says throw out nam and he he says amounts might increase. Believe him or not but he is fun with his love of weatherDude is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Jim flowers now singing the eagles song peaceful easy feeling on his latest Facebook video. God love him. Says throw out nam and he he says amounts might increase. Believe him or not but he is fun with his love of weatherOn an update from a couple of hours ago he showed a county map of grid amounts that NWS is forecasting even though they haven't called for official amounts in their discussions or point forecasts. It has 13 for Omaha and 15 for Lincoln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Euro is running. out to 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 996 mb low over the Mojave. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 This will be the run that the neb folks will be jumping up and down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f024/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 def southeast of 00z run last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Low is in North Central Texas at 48hrs. South and slow on the euro so far. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 hows the euro going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 well E of 24 hours ago-- The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Looks good for Iowa. Southeast of tonight's GFS run but that was expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 I think it moves NW to where the GFS is. Maybe a little further.fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Niceeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 It digs further into Texas rather than GFS which has it in Oklahoma more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 how does it look for the Lincoln area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 early on looks like euro trending like gem cand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Snowfall maps please when they load. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 just W of DSM-TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.7 -3.0 1016 91 100 0.04 551 538 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.0 -4.7 1008 89 100 0.25 548 541 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.0 -4.1 1003 94 23 0.50 538 536 WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.3 -5.0 1002 93 54 0.10 533 532 WED 06Z 03-FEB -4.2 -8.1 1010 85 85 0.03 534 526 1 The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160131/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 i said 20-40 mile shift SE. Looks like it moved 20-30 miles SE; at least in E Iowa. http://i.imgur.com/Sk7LJAc.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188 00Z JAN31 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SUN 00Z 31-JAN 7.3 8.5 1001 72 25 554 554 SUN 06Z 31-JAN 2.6 3.3 1003 90 46 0.01 552 550 SUN 12Z 31-JAN 1.9 0.1 1006 91 87 0.03 548 543 SUN 18Z 31-JAN 7.0 -1.1 1010 61 32 0.00 545 537 MON 00Z 01-FEB 3.6 -1.0 1012 65 18 0.00 548 538 MON 06Z 01-FEB -0.7 -1.5 1015 76 25 0.00 551 538 MON 12Z 01-FEB -1.1 -0.7 1016 77 43 0.00 550 538 MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.4 -1.5 1016 60 98 0.00 551 537 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 2.0 -3.2 1014 87 95 0.05 549 538 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.7 -3.9 1012 95 100 0.11 548 538 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -1.0 -6.1 1005 92 100 0.41 541 537 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -2.4 -6.9 1004 93 86 0.37 533 529 WED 00Z 03-FEB -3.3 -8.4 1011 87 95 0.16 534 526 WED 06Z 03-FEB -5.8 -8.9 1019 81 91 0.01 538 523 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 i said 20-40 mile shift SE. Looks like it moved 20-30 miles SE; at least in E Iowa. http://i.imgur.com/Sk7LJAc.pngHow does it look in wisconsin ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 Seems Euro is faster too. Anyone concur? Heavier snows move in prior to 12z here, used to be after 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 just W of DSM-TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.7 -3.0 1016 91 100 0.04 551 538 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.0 -4.7 1008 89 100 0.25 548 541 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.0 -4.1 1003 94 23 0.50 538 536 WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.3 -5.0 1002 93 54 0.10 533 532 WED 06Z 03-FEB -4.2 -8.1 1010 85 85 0.03 534 526 Grizz, you mind posting IOW & CID? We are right on the cutoff over here and I live basically equidistance to both.Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 OMA-TUE 00Z 02-FEB 3.6 -3.2 1014 75 94 0.02 549 538 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.9 -3.5 1014 92 100 0.08 549 538 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -0.7 -5.4 1006 89 100 0.34 543 538 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -1.3 -6.7 1004 92 80 0.44 534 531 WED 00Z 03-FEB -3.1 -7.9 1009 87 97 0.16 533 526 WED 06Z 03-FEB -5.5 -8.6 1017 81 97 0.03 537 523 The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU LAT= 41.45 LON= -97.33 ELE= 1444 00Z JAN31 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.2 -2.4 1017 51 82 0.00 549 536 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 2.3 -3.6 1014 72 98 0.01 548 536 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -0.5 -4.7 1014 91 100 0.08 547 536 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -2.6 -6.5 1009 87 100 0.27 540 533 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -3.5 -6.6 1009 90 99 0.44 534 527 WED 00Z 03-FEB -3.8 -8.0 1013 84 95 0.17 535 524 WED 06Z 03-FEB -6.3 -9.3 1020 79 75 0.00 538 523 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 31, 2016 Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/WDOmyEU.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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