January 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

56/40 here with an east wind and lots of sunshine until about 3 p.m.

 

No haze or any sign of low level moisture.

 

Haven't checked my high yet, but it was 34 when I got home at 5pm this evening. The low this morning was 30.

 

Salem had wall to wall sunshine today.

[Phil]

A major pattern shakeup is 80% or higher to happen. Even the ECMWF ensemble is adamant on that now.

 

But how long does the shake-up last, given the tropical forcing will be progressing following the ESC event..?

 

I'm not sold on the idea that the ridge is gone..

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But how long does the shake-up last, given the tropical forcing will be progressing following the ESC event..?

 

I'm not sold on the idea that the ridge is gone..

 

I agree with you in that I'm unconvinced the "shake up" will last more than a week or so.

[Jesse]

I agree with you in that I'm unconvinced the "shake up" will last more than a week or so.

 

Careful, you might lose your "advanced member" status with comments like this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Careful, you might lose your "advanced member" status with comments like this.

 

February is going to be the coldest since record keeping began in W. Oregon and Washington.

 

Is that better? 

[Jesse]

February is going to be the coldest since record keeping began in W. Oregon and Washington.

 

Is that better? 

 

Yes.

 

Only comments of extreme pessimism or optimism are allowed here. The middle ground clearly offers nothing. Moderation be damned!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I was always surprised that the area around Victor Falls didnt go up into flames every Summer.

Well, not sure what the fire was, where or even if it was real but included the Facebook thread/image below. NOTE: We had a fire back in the woods this past summer but it was deliberately set. The summer fire was actually on the news and first reported on our Facebook page: here is a link to the summer fire: http://www.blscourierherald.com/news/220124051.html

 

See attached for todays Facebook thread. (I assume it was nothing)

 

[snow_wizard]

Yes.

 

Only comments of extreme pessimism or optimism are allowed here. The middle ground clearly offers nothing. Moderation be damned!

 

It really does seem there are no moderate views right now.  My feelings on Feb is it will average below normal for temp...not sure how much below, but below is quite likely.  At least a couple of lowland snow threats seem pretty likely also.  We'll just have to see how it goes.  Sometimes I may seem to be going more extreme than I really am because I am trying to offset the over the top pessimism on here lately.  The ball will be in our court.

[TT-SEA]

It really does seem there are no moderate views right now.  My feelings on Feb is it will average below normal for temp...not sure how much below, but below is quite likely.  At least a couple of lowland snow threats seem pretty likely also.  We'll just have to see how it goes.  Sometimes I may seem to be going more extreme than I really am because I am trying to offset the over the top pessimism on here lately.  The ball will be in our court.

 

 

Why in God's name do you think you have to offset silly pessimism with silly, irrational optimism.      That does nothing for your credibility.    

 

If you want to improve the mood and have people pay attention... then be realistic with your prediction.  

[BLI snowman]

It really does seem there are no moderate views right now.  My feelings on Feb is it will average below normal for temp...not sure how much below, but below is quite likely.  At least a couple of lowland snow threats seem pretty likely also.  We'll just have to see how it goes.  Sometimes I may seem to be going more extreme than I really am because I am trying to offset the over the top pessimism on here lately.  The ball will be in our court.

 

Seems pretty reasonable. I'd be surprised if we went a whole other month without lowland snow threats. I'm pretty confident it will snow somewhere below 2000 feet in February. Didn't happen this month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

43/24 at SLE today.

[AnthonyC]

I'm still not seeing anything in the models that make me think "wow, we're about to enter a really cold/lowland snow period" but a definite pattern change is coming.  Some of the GFS ensembles continue to show the mean trough digging too far offshore, but given there's not much consistently as a collective whole I won't count on it.

 

The EURO continues to bounce back and forth...completely worthless model the past few weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I'm still not seeing anything in the models that make me think "wow, we're about to enter a really cold/lowland snow period" but a definite pattern change is coming.  Some of the GFS ensembles continue to show the mean trough digging too far offshore, but given there's not much consistently as a collective whole I won't count on it.

 

The EURO continues to bounce back and forth...completely worthless model the past few weeks.

 

 

More of a typical pattern for this time of year. I do have some hope that the snow level may occasionally dip into the foothills.

[Jesse]

43/24 at SLE today.

 

Summer-like almost. No wonder everyone's grass is greening up.

[TT-SEA]

Summer-like almost. No wonder everyone's grass is greening up.

I have seen some days recently that were nicer than many May and June days in 2010 and 2011

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Summer-like almost. No wonder everyone's grass is greening up.

 

The comment I made yesterday was about how it looked outside. It looked like early spring. Could have said the same about today as well, looking out the window it was sunny and bright!

[χιόνι (chióni)]

First post.

 

Currently 40

 

My sister in Annapolis, MD is loving snow and cold.  Go Hawks!

[AnthonyC]

I have seen some days recently that were nicer than many May and June days in 2010 and 2011

 

I'm sure June 21 will be crappier than today!

 

Given how abnormally dry our Winter has been thus far, I'm sure we'll pay the price in Spring...

[luvssnow_spokane]

If you love ridging you will love the 00z!! Out to hour 189 and ridges is as strong as ever.

[Skagit Weather]

I don't think Skagit weather's stats are very representative of any lowland location.

 

I have also seen six consecutive sub-freezing lows. Tomorrow morning should be #7.

 

Even PDX saw their fourth freeze in a row this morning.

Maybe not, but I think it is more the entire north sound rather than just my location. Bellingham (KBLI) dropped before freezing for the first time since the 6th last night (although they did touch freezing on the 16th and 17th). For some reason this inversion has just not been that cold and possible the same reason why last week the north sound was clearing out when the central to south sound was still stuck in the muck.

[Utrex]

PNA is forecasting at about a -2. Hopefully it drops even more!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[Skagit Weather]

Hi Everyone,

 

I formally introduced myself over in the 'hi' section, but I thought I would share my latest post from 50 Shades of Van. Lurked here for ages, but I want to start contributing a little bit to these forums. 

 

Also, I don't want to make a habit of posting my own blog posts here, because this forum isn't really meant for constant blog spam and self-promotion and such. 

 

Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/1/21/skiers

• The resilient ridge: It will get worse before it gets better
• A look (with ensembles) at the possible demise of the ridge and return to mountain snows
• Brief examination of some teleconnections (People who are experts will find this very elementary)

 

Cheers. 

Welcome to the forum. I just read a few blog posts and they seem knowledgeable and interesting to read.

[GobBluth]

If you love ridging you will love the 00z!! Out to hour 189 and ridges is as strong as ever.

Incredible - there's a default ridge solution that never goes away through 384.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmmm, take this with a grain of pepper(or cinnamon if you prefer) Brett Anderson's Canadian Weather Blog long range update

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_01210328_jan21a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_01210329_jan21b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_01210331_jan21cc.png

[westiztehbest]

Incredible - there's a default ridge solution that never goes away through 384.

The waffling back and forth of the GFS is laughable.  Every 6 hours its showing cold and wet solutions then the next its showing something watered down and dry.  I'm not holding much weight in that model at this time.

 

The GEM is showing an active pattern starting at hour 168.

 

 

 

The Euro will be telling.  I'm thinking it will be on a similar wavelength as the GEM.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The waffling back and forth of the GFS is laughable. Every 6 hours its showing cold and wet solutions then the next its showing something watered down and dry. I'm not holding much weight in that model at this time.

 

The GEM is showing an active pattern starting at hour 168.

 

http://i41.tinypic.com/2ex0qrt.gif

 

The Euro will be telling. I'm thinking it will be on a similar wavelength as the GEM.

The GFS has been a mess but the EURO has not been great either. I am hoping for mountain snow at the bare minimum. Since all the models seem unreliable at this point who knows but I suspect we will get that at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles are not bad.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The ensembles are not bad.

do they continue to push things back though? Can someone post them?

[brody]

Is it too early to wish for some good CAPE, bulk shear and LI's right now?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Is it too early to wish for some good CAPE, bulk shear and LI's right now?

Nah, definitely not.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Cooler-ish trend.

[brody]

Cooler-ish trend.

Cooler-ish for sure with two members -10C and most in the -5C to -6C range

 

Baby steps I guess

[50shadesofvan]

Welcome to the forum. I just read a few blog posts and they seem knowledgeable and interesting to read.

 

Thanks Skagit Weather. I try to post on a consistent basis (2-3 times a week on average), depending on what's happening with the weather. I hope some people on this forum can find it useful/entertaining/educational -- even though my primary focus is on weather in Vancouver, Canada I'll regularly mention Washington and Oregon as well. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Cooler-ish trend.

Yep, looks like good mountain snow and cold/slopppy rain at times for much of the lowlands. Better than the crap we are in now. I hope it continues to improve.

[GobBluth]

who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

who else is feeling less and less impressed by the upcoming "pattern change"?

 

Me. 50% chance we have some weak troughing for about a week followed by 3 more weeks of ridging...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Me. 50% chance we have some weak troughing for about a week followed by 3 more weeks of ridging...

Yep, At this point it sure looks that way... On another note: This has to be one of the better winters for the midwest and east coast though (if you like snow and cold). Seems like they will continue to get hit in a variety of ways (off and on) and will for many more weeks. This ridge has been a real blessing for them and a nightmare for us.

 

Honestly, I feel the real damage other than our dashed hopes is the ski resorts and the lack of snow pack. I know we can make it up in the spring but the 2 month (Dec and Jan) loss of business has to be painful, specially for the smaller businesses that rely on the revenue. This winter had incredible amounts of hype and hope from many of us on this board, and even in the models at times, -- so far it has been a real disappointment from a snow perspective. 

 

Like I said back in December, I will not be surprised if our optimum pattern (proper blocking, etc.) for snow and cold is established in March or April when it just does not mean much for us here other than pounding the mountains with snow. This has been a reaccuring theme over the past 5+ years and would not be surprised to see it again.  BUT I digress, we still have time for something to transpire here so, I am hopeful things can still deliver for us.

[GobBluth]

Me. 50% chance we have some weak troughing for about a week followed by 3 more weeks of ridging...

The only positive I can see is that the flow may be more progressive. However if that east coast trough can't get dislodged the chances of continued ridging is very high.

[HighlandExperience]

 

Honestly, I feel the real damage other than our dashed hopes is the ski resorts and the lack of snow pack. I know we can make it up in the spring but the 2 month (Dec and Jan) loss of business has to be painful, specially for the smaller businesses that rely on the revenue. This winter had incredible amounts of hype and hope from many of us on this board, and even in the models at times, -- so far it has been a real disappointment from a snow perspective. .

 

This right here. Marmot Mountain Works in Bellevue is closing in a few weeks for good. I am not suggesting that this winter alone put them out of buisness. They had to compete with places like REI, and the high rent of downtown Bellevue. It is a botique store that specializes in backcountry ski gear, and other outdoor equipment.

 

This winter sure did not help buisness. Perhaps they could have stayed open a bit longer if this year was better.