January 2014 in the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

The ice grows out of thin air on anything stationary.  Not bad for an iPhone cam.

Yeah great Pic!! iPhones specially the newer ones take amazing pictures!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think Dewey hit the nail on the head yesterday. Hard to see all the ingredients coming together without a game changer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Near 60 in Central Oregon this afternoon. Even Burns is in the mid-50s after a single digit low.

[Guest Winterdog]

18Z is a mess through 240 with ridge just offshore in it's default position. At least it's 240hrs out and will not likely verify.

[HighlandExperience]

We have no snow on the ground in Leavenworth, so that is a record low, or at least tied.

 

Very unusual, but not unprecedented.  Old timers tell me we have had a few snowless winters in the past.  At least one or two of the winters never even had any snowfall.

 

It would suck to then get a big El Nino next year and have another low snow winter, though Leavenworth does get snow in a nino, just not as much as usual. 

 

This winter has been pathetic. Meanwhile its snowing on the Gulf Coast. 

[TT-SEA]

This winter has been pathetic. Meanwhile its snowing on the Gulf Coast. 

 

18Z is really frustrating.    Never quite gets there.  

[MossMan]

18Z is really frustrating.    Never quite gets there.

 

Good thing there is plenty of time for things to get there!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

18Z is really frustrating.    Never quite gets there.  

Well, at least it depicts a typical outcome for here. "so close but yet so far".    -- Honestly, I wonder why I even look beyond 240 anymore it is a crazy roller coaster ride. I am honestly not liking how the ridge insists on getting closer and closer to us potentially leaving us dry. Even if we get colder I could care less without moisture!!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

With 10 days of freezing fog any change will be an improvement.

That is a amazing photo. Nice job there.

[pscz1140]

18z ensembles looking good - ensemble mean much better than the operational.

 

Around half the members put us in the freezer by Feb 6.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

All in all this is the lamest winter I've experienced here. I like weather, I look forward to it all year. Sunshine is not weather. Its almost taboo to see this much sun this time of year. WE WILL PAY FOR THIS WHEN WE WANT THE SUN OUT.

[snow_wizard]

All in all this is the lamest winter I've experienced here. I like weather, I look forward to it all year. Sunshine is not weather. Its almost taboo to see this much sun this time of year. WE WILL PAY FOR THIS WHEN WE WANT THE SUN OUT.

It's only late January...

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ensemble is notably better than the previous few runs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The only time of year I hate here is april and may when it rains every day and the snow level is 6000 ft.

[snow_wizard]

With 10 days of freezing fog any change will be an improvement.

It is cool in it's own way though. Makes for some really pretty scenes.

 

Looking at the web cams around Central and Eastern WA I was pretty shocked to see how bleak most of the area looks over there. The areas that are high enough elevation to be in the freezing fog at least have something other than brown grass and gray skies.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's only late January...

I agree. Ment so far. I would trade the cold we had in december for 3 weeks of storms.

[Guest Winterdog]

Yes indeed the ensembles look good. The 18Z just didn't look viable considering the long line of preceding runs with the ridge placement to the west. The control line is much colder than the mean as well. The next two weeks should be interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles. Some improvement with the mean temp, but check out all of the cold members. Hmmm....

 

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Columbia Basin cold pool anyone?
925mb map

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1390782911094

 

and....

 

.... East Wind Watch .... Yep, again.
Models show about a 8-9mb peak. I disagree. NWS says it may be near 10mb. I'm thinking between 10-11mb. It's already at -8.5mb now.
as of 4 PM
PDX-DLS: -8.3mb
TTD-DLS: -8.5mb
This should be almost entirely gap wind during this event. I don't know if it will get as powerful as the past 2 events up at Crown Point, but I think 95-105mph(on the steps) is very possible. There is an outside chance at a Wind Advisory being issued east of I-205 before this is over too. Now that 115 and 122mph gusts have been measured a mere lousy 105mph doesn't seem like much lol....

[snow_wizard]

The only time of year I hate here is april and may when it rains every day and the snow level is 6000 ft.

I very much agree with you. That time of year can be ultra depressing unless it's a year like last year. Just because it's dry now doesn't mean we are doomed to a gloomy spring though. 1985 just stayed dry.

[snow_wizard]

I agree. Ment so far. I would trade the cold we had in december for 3 weeks of storms.

I wouldn't if there was no snow in that 3 weeks of storms.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles are dividing into two distinct camps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot more warmer members on the 18z ensembles too...

[Phil]

Even if this winter doesn't pan out for the west, you've gotta feel good about the return to extreme mid-winter cold over much of the US.

 

History clearly tells us that when we see numerous cold winters on a decadal/multi-decadal timescale, everyone ends up hitting the jackpot eventually.

 

I've been seeing some good signs on a global scale, which started back in 2012. We're quickly leaving the 1998-2012 regime which was marked by broad, poleward-migrating Hadley Cells and a significant drying of the tropical atmosphere above 600mb. The circulatory system is in a transition state..once we leave the current solar maximum, the dominoes should begin to fall.

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS Ensembles. Some improvement with the mean temp, but check out all of the cold members. Hmmm...

Maybe swinging toward the ECMWF ensemble which was great.

[stuffradio]

WeatherPhil can you tell us how the Hadley,Ferrel and Polar Cells effect the Jet stream, in layman terms, unless that takes too much time to do?

[Jesse]

A lot more warmer members on the 18z ensembles too...

You are quickly becoming one of the most annoying members of this forum. Congrats.

[Gradient Keeper]

A lot more warmer members on the 18z ensembles too...

Exactly. Where as it's nice to see the colder members -10c or so, we can't simply ignore the warmer members on the spread either just because we don't want to see them.

[Gradient Keeper]

You are quickly becoming one of the most annoying members of this forum. Congrats.

Why? He's 100% correct. Look how many members are between -2c to +5c. It's just an observation and being objective is refreshing. I don't like seeing it either, but I can't ignore it. He shouldn't get a snarky little remark like you gave for doing so either.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You are quickly becoming one of the most annoying members of this forum. Congrats.

OMG! really!!?  He is absolutely right... deal with it

[snow_wizard]

Why? He's 100% correct. Look how many members are between -2c to +5c. It's just an observation and being objective is refreshing. I don't like seeing it either, but I can't ignore it. He shouldn't get a snarky little remark like you gave for doing so either.

I like seeing there are more very cold members in spite of the warmer ones. The Euro ensemble supposedly has considerably higher skill than the GFS ensemble and the 12z Euro ensemble was fabulous beginning around day 10. The anomalies being shown were amazing considering how far out it still is.

[TT-SEA]

You are quickly becoming one of the most annoying members of this forum. Congrats.

 

This is getting ridiculous.    Anyone who says anything realistic and honest... but goes against the dream of a massive arctic blast and snow... is immediately mocked.

 

We are not able to discuss reality at all on here.     Too much of this 'only say things I want to hear' stuff now.    

[Phil]

WeatherPhil can you tell us how the Hadley,Ferrel and Polar Cells effect the Jet stream, in layman terms, unless that takes too much time to do?

It would require a lot of writing and linking. I'm on my IPhone so when I can get back to a PC I'll put something together in the climatology forum.

 

I'll just say this and shut up. There's a reason the most intense winters in North American history occurred during the prolonged solar minimums..and tended to be warmer during the decades featuring an active Sun, specifically a strong solar wind. Looking at the isotope history in the GISP/Vostok ice core data, the transition we're about to go through may very well be the most dramatic in several thousand years. I personally know a few Danish scientists who do the analysis on the ice cores, and they've confirmed my suspicion.

 

The winters during the Dalton Minimum during the 1800s were extreme..NY harbor froze over on numerous occasions, as did the Chesapeake Bay.

 

If you think that's impressive, look at Native American tales of winters that occurred during the Maunder Minumum. We'd be scared s**tless if that were to occur now.

 

I'll have to dig up the research/history on this. But I'll say, it's nothing short of fascinating.

[Deweydog]

This is getting ridiculous.    Anyone who says anything realistic and honest... but goes against the dream of a massive arctic blast and snow... is immediately mocked.

 

We are not able to discuss reality at all on here.     Too much of this 'only say things I want to hear' stuff now.    

 

He'll joke it off later.  It's kind of nice you can't delete your own posts here.  True colors a little more vivid.  

[snow_wizard]

It would require a lot of writing and linking. I'm on my IPhone so when I can get back to a PC I'll put something together in the climatology forum.

 

I'll just say this and shut up. There's a reason the most intense winters in North American history occurred during the prolonged solar minimums..and tended to be warmer during the decades featuring an active Sun, specifically a strong solar wind.

 

The winters during the Dalton Minimum during the 1800s were extreme..NY harbor froze over on numerous occasions, as did the Chesapeake Bay.

 

If you think that's impressive, look at Native American tales of winters that occurred during the Maunder Minumum. We'd be scared s**tless if that were to occur now.

 

I'll have to dig up the research/history on this. But I'll say, it's nothing short of fascinating.

The 1800s were amazing here too. I certainly hope much of that was related to the inactive sun. Supposedly the 1600s were even more extreme. I can't imagine some of the winters we may have had here then!

[Gradient Keeper]

http://i44.tinypic.com/28vpr3d.png

[Skagit Weather]

All in all this is the lamest winter I've experienced here. I like weather, I look forward to it all year. Sunshine is not weather. Its almost taboo to see this much sun this time of year. WE WILL PAY FOR THIS WHEN WE WANT THE SUN OUT.

Really the last two years have been terrible. A few more thunderstorms than usual have not been enough to make up for the drought in anything exciting including windstorms, snowstorms, extreme heat waves, and even pineapple expresses. All we have had are fog storms and dry streaks which are only slightly more interesting than watching different shades of overcast.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at the 18z ensemble for Seattle I counted 12 members that had 850mb temps drop to -10 or lower and 6 or 7 that went above zero during the period in question. Clearly a good run. If the warm members are indeed bogus the mean would have been amazing.

[snow_wizard]

Really the last two years have been terrible. A few more thunderstorms than usual have not been enough to make up for the drought in anything exciting including windstorms, snowstorms, extreme heat waves, and even pineapple expresses. All we have had are fog storms and dry streaks which are only slightly more interesting than watching different shades of overcast.

2011-12 had a pretty significant snow / ice event.

 

I'm certain things are going to be much different next month. The models are screaming much above normal heights over Alaska and the Aleutians. I think we could easily make up for all of the dullness we have seen thus far.

[Skagit Weather]

Looking at the 18z ensemble for Seattle I counted 12 members that had 850mb temps drop to -10 or lower and 6 or 7 that went above zero during the period in question. clearly a good run. If the warm members are indeed bogus the mean would have been amazing.

It is a little surprising how much the mean has been fluctuating in the last day. It has been changing by 3 degrees with almost every model run and there is a big difference between -5C and -8C 850mb temps.

[Phil]

The 1800s were amazing here too. I certainly hope much of that was related to the inactive sun. Supposedly the 1600s were even more extreme. I can't imagine some of the winters we may have had here then!

The 1600s/early 1700s were obscenely cold. There has been a ton of paleoclimatological research done on this matter..so when I get home I'll try to dig it up.