January 2014 in the PNW

[Guest Monty67]

Euro site isn't updating for me..

try this one. The ecmwf site is slow sometimes.

 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Black Hole]

I hope everyone is keeping their weenie angst in check this evening. I don't have time to read 10 pages right now but PM me if there are any issues.

[Parksvillewx]

Yeah, me neither. Try this one http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

 

 

try this one. The ecmwf site is slow sometimes.

 

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

 

O ya! Forgot about that. Thanks guys.

[snow_wizard]

The Canadian ensemble is fabulous by day 11, the ECMWF is worlds better than the GFS at day 10. You knew I couldn't stay away for long.

[Gradient Keeper]

The Canadian ensemble is fabulous by day 11, the ECMWF is worlds better than the GFS at day 10. You knew I couldn't stay away for long.

You never needed to leave anyways. This Forum wouldn't be the same without you anyhow, and you know it. Post the ensemble. I saw the 00z EURO at day 10. Ya, it's quite a bit better than the GFS.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f240.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

54 for a high at Denali today. All-time January record.

[Guest Winterdog]

The Canadian ensemble is fabulous by day 11, the ECMWF is worlds better than the GFS at day 10. You knew I couldn't stay away for long.

Good to have you back!

[snow_wizard]

54 for a high at Denali today. All-time January record.

Wow! Things are just messed up this winter.

[snow_wizard]

Here is the Canadian ensemble at day 11.  Probably the best mean I've seen at that time frame.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=264&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=gz

[snow_wizard]

Looks like PDX has put together a respectable string of minus departure days.  At the same time SEA has been absolutely pathetic.  Almost embarrassing to look at the SEA numbers this winter.  I hope they come up with some solutions for the warm bias this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

If anything the past 24-36 hours of operational runs and especially ensembles have revealed that we have had an increasing spread among ensemble members and thus greater uncertainty beyond day 7-8. It may sound redundant, but this could go either way. It could turn cold/arctic and possibly snowy, it could remain ridgy, or maybe the jet breaks through with ample moisture. I would unfortunately lean towards #2 or something like that with the ridge 130-140 W, but not in the sweet spot, or other problems the block not configured favorably, lack of southeast US ridge, etc. Hopefully 12z runs later today(it's Monday now) turn things around, less ensemble spread, colder members, and better operational runs. I don't have much confidence, but I won't be foolish to discount the possibility either.

[snow_wizard]

Tonight may have the thickest freezing fog I have ever seen. I would say the vis is about 1/32 of a mile. Looks like this amazing string of fog days is going to end with a bang.

[TT-SEA]

Tonight may have the thickest freezing fog I have ever seen. I would say the vis is about 1/32 of a mile. Looks like this amazing string of fog days is going to end with a bang.

 

It has not been a foggy week at all for most places.    There was relatively little fog in the past week even in the lowlands.     Not really an amazing string.    

 

But it does look foggy down there right now.     Offshore gradients increasing... breezy and clear here.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like PDX has put together a respectable string of minus departure days.  At the same time SEA has been absolutely pathetic.  Almost embarrassing to look at the SEA numbers this winter.  I hope they come up with some solutions for the warm bias this year.

 

 

I don't have stats... but I am very sure this winter has been significantly above normal here.    I am just over the hill from your house.   

 

If something does not happen in February you will probably be grading this winter very low... so why worry about whether SEA is at -1 or +2 or whatever.     It has been warm across the region above the inversions again.    Its not like we have had genuine cold air except for a week in December.    

 

It is so irrelevant without memorable winter weather.   What do you do with that information?     So the ambient air temperature at SEA was slightly warmer during a winter with almost no memorable weather.    How are you embarrassed?   Is anyone judging you on this... does anyone else care??        

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks dry for Friday - Sunday now... recent runs had precip all weekend.

 

Such a vague and meandering pattern. This one is going to drive us all crazy since the fine details are probably going to change almost randomly.

 

The 06Z GFS is not good for genuine cold through the entire run... there is not even the fantasy stuff in the long range.

[Phil]

This is crazy.

 

Winter Storm Watches in:

 

New Orleans LA

Gulfport MS

Tallahassee FL

Savannah GA

 

What has the world come to when coastal FL is colder and snowier than parts of coastal Alaska?

[TT-SEA]

Awesome sunrise right now...

 

http://s28.postimg.org/4pv7vrqp9/jan95.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

This is crazy.

 

Winter Storm Watches in:

 

New Orleans LA

Gulfport MS

Tallahassee FL

Savannah GA

 

What has the world come to when coastal FL is colder and snowier than parts of coastal Alaska?

 

I noticed that as well. Some parts of the deep south are going to get close to 8 inches. This winter is just beyond crazy.

 

And it is not just coastal Alaska. Record warm temps in the Brooks range of Alaska and some of the interior locations. Many ski resorts suffering. Makes you wonder how crappy our spring will be.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December was well below average up here. January has probably been around or slightly above average up here...I don't get the warming offshore flow that Tim gets.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is worth mentioning that the 06z operational is a significant outlier on the warm side after February 5th. The 06z ensembles are actually pretty decent. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS still going for the cold February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least NorCAL looks like they'll get a little rain this week. Tuesday and Wednesday look a little damp here. Which is good, we really need the rain.

[Skagit Weather]

It is worth mentioning that the 06z operational is a significant outlier on the warm side after February 5th. The 06z ensembles are actually pretty decent. 

The warmer members in the ensemble have largely disappeared. There are now only three members above 0c during the coldest February 5-9 period for Seattle.

 

[Skagit Weather]

This is crazy.

 

Winter Storm Watches in:

 

New Orleans LA

Gulfport MS

Tallahassee FL

Savannah GA

 

What has the world come to when coastal FL is colder and snowier than parts of coastal Alaska?

That is just depressing. If something doesn't happen here in February then places on the gulf coast may have more snow than most locations have had here in 2 or even 3 winters.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Tonight may have the thickest freezing fog I have ever seen. I would say the vis is about 1/32 of a mile. Looks like this amazing string of fog days is going to end with a bang.

I had no fog at my house last night... got down to about 30 for a low.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS has some nice outflow one week from today.

 

Looks dry... but definitely chilly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is definitely in the cold camp. Cold air is here by day 8.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS bottoms SLE out at -17 850mb temps 505 thickness.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS bottoms SLE out at -17 850mb temps 505 thickness.

 

Amazingly... it happens before the resolution change.

 

I am becoming more intrigued.  

 

On that run... the cold air comes in full force but its bone dry all of next week.     That can't happen again can it??

[stuffradio]

I told you guys to stop getting depressed over the sudden switch to warmer solutions, but you wouldn't listen. I also said, it will change a lot between now and Feb. Sit back and enjoy any cold weather we get, because at the beginning of Jan, we weren't expecting any cold for Feb.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Definitely some overrunning about day 15!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not going to lie, the 12z GFS is exciting!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Best run in 2 months and no one cares. Okay.

[stuffradio]

Best run in 2 months and no one cares. Okay.

I already posted about it on the last page.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I already posted about it on the last page.

 

I know, I just thought there might be a little more palpable excitement. 

[HighlandExperience]

Best run in 2 months and no one cares. Okay.

 

Probably because it looks pretty darn dry right now. If it turns out anything like it was in December I would be pretty dissapointed.

[Guest Monty67]

Best run in 2 months and no one cares. Okay.

All the pessimism lately has just killed everyone's morale.

 

It was a great run though. The 25C degree spread in the 6z ensemble at day 10 is a little concerning. Maybe the 12z will be better.

[Jesse]

Best run in 2 months and no one cares. Okay.

That's what happens when everyone is scared away by the prospect of being labled a wishcaster for talking about anything good.

[Jesse]

I know it's been warmer in other places, but the fake cold has been pretty impressive out here. I haven't been any higher than the 30s since last Sunday. Most areas east of the cascades have had a fairly chilly last 7-10 days as well.

 

ZR is looking like a distinct possibility out here tomorrow morning. Then starting Wednesday it looks like we will transfer almost seamlessly from fake cold to real cold.

[HighlandExperience]

I know it's been warmer in other places, but the fake cold has been pretty impressive out here. I haven't been any higher than the 30s since last Sunday. Most areas east of the cascades have had a fairly chilly last 7-10 days as well.

 

ZR is looking like a distinct possibility out here tomorrow morning. Then starting Wednesday it looks like we will transfer almost seamlessly from fake cold to real cold.

 

You live in a great location. One day you are bound to get slammed by some great winter weather.