SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Zonal flow! http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2014012700/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_38.png Don't worry it doesn't last! http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2014012700/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_49.pngAnd when February ends... http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2014012700/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_65.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well I am sure most meteorologists have more experience than you, especially considering your what, 28-34 in age. I really haven't been able to pinpoint your age, just guessing based on some posts you have made.I am technically a qualified meteorologist. I have degrees in A.S and Physics + Systems Science from U.M.D. And yes, I'm 32. I worked for the military right out of the academic arena, and retired happily in 2012. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I had over 12" of Snow in March over a decade ago. It was in 2002 or 2003. It CAN happen folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 You guys probably don't want to look at the 00z GFS. That model has been flip flopping like a fish out of water. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 You guys probably don't want to look at the 00z GFS. That model has been flipping like a fish out of water.10C 850 mb and a ridge, or a Pineapple express with 6" of Rain. Which one is it on the 00z? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 You guys probably don't want to look at the 00z GFS. That model has been flip flopping like a fish out of water. Looking at hour 192 it doesn't look like its going anywhere good... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I had over 12" of Snow in March over a decade ago. It was in 2002 or 2003. It CAN happen folks. 2002 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looking at hour 192 it doesn't look like its going anywhere good...-12 850's at PDX and a snowstorm for Eugene at hour 228. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 10C 850 mb and a ridge, or a Pineapple express with 6" of Rain. Which one is it on the 00z?It's not a bad run initially, but the pineapple express takes over after day 10 while the east gets slammed again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 -12 850's at PDX and a snowstorm for Eugene at hour 228. Well then...lol Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's not a bad run initially, but the pineapple express takes over after day 10 while the east gets slammed again.It's actually a good run up until day 10. The evolution is possibly a step in the wrong direction though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's not a bad run. Hour 177 is -10C 850, and hour 276 starts a Snow to rain transition. That's the bad part of it. That's too far out though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 It does kind of go to hell after that...But... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 I want lots of rain in February... might be a step in the RIGHT direction if you are a fan of pleasant weather in April and May. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like a repeat of early Dec on the 00z GFS. Eugene south gets all the snow and Portland gets an inch, nothing for Seattle and Vancouver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Vancouver and Seattle will get a transition event later on, maybe Portland too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Vancouver and Seattle will get a transition event later on, maybe Portland too. Don't blink! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z Canadian model shows something same like GFS. L off the coast ready to go inland with arctic air in place. http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's still a-ways-out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like a repeat of early Dec on the 00z GFS. Eugene south gets all the snow and Portland gets an inch, nothing for Seattle and Vancouver. LRC currently stands at a 57 day cycle, lines up well with the above statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 LRC currently stands at a 57 day cycle, lines up well with the above statement.Has the LRC aligned up well with all the cold outbreaks in the mid-west and east coast? I don't remember them being unusually cold back at the end of November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 It looks to me that the ensembles are slightly better than the 18z or they at least extend the cold air for a little bit longer. The mean stays below -5C in Seattle from the 3rd to the 9th which is pretty good. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 41/32 day with clouds throughout. Rain not here yet, but I can see it approaching on radar. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Has the LRC aligned up well with all the cold outbreaks in the mid-west and east coast? I don't remember them being unusually cold back at the end of November.Multiple troughs crossed the region end of November, the jet stream was just further north at that point. This is a great site to use: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z GEMhttp://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=enPretty decent run, cold arrives after day 8.850mb temp loophttp://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=TT850&map=na&lang=en-10c to -15c. COLD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well, whats the Euro going to show in the Long Range? Cold? Death ridge? Place your bets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well, whats the Euro going to show in the Long Range? Cold? Death ridge? Place your bets!Upper low migrating from central California towards southern Oregon. 60kts bulk shear, LI -7, 2400J/kg CAPE. So, basically a Severe Thunderstorm outbreak and Kitten* juggling. If I had to say right now put on the spot that is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Multiple troughs crossed the region end of November, the jet stream was just further north at that point. This is a great site to use: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/Thanks, that does look like a good source. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pscz1140 Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Upper low migrating from central California towards southern Oregon. 60kts bulk shear, LI -7, 2400J/kg CAPE. So, basically a Severe Thunderstorm outbreak and Kitten* juggling. If I had to say right now put on the spot that is. Dude, you always have great posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Well, whats the Euro going to show in the Long Range? Cold? Death ridge? Place your bets! Arctic Cold and Snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Dude, you always have great posts.Thanks, but you're killing my reputation as being an unbalanced, wishcasting noob/weenie! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Thanks, but you're killing my reputation as being an unbalanced, wishcasting noob/weenie! LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z EURO HR 144http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f144.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 HR 168http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f168.gif HR 192http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f192.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 00Z ECMWF sucks. Looks more like we just get side-swiped by another mass of arctic air sliding mainly into the Midwest. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012800!!chart.gif http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012800!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 The euro is chilly but not great. Maybe that block can finally get its together for the second week of February. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 The euro is chilly but not great. Maybe that block can finally get its s**t together for the second week of February.Yeah, I think that second blob of cold air northeast of Barrow at 240 hrs has our name on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 What did I miss? I had the emergency runs and I missed the full Euro run! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 28, 2014 Report Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yeah, I think that second blob of cold air northeast of Barrow at 240 hrs has our name on it.I think that's what it might come down to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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