Tony Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 Pass and pass on the next one as that will fizzle out as well. Just the way this winter has gone for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 I think the storm on its heels has more of a chance to develop into something bigger. Yeah really... The lake effect wildcard might be more significant than the synoptic snow itself. The parameters look really good on this side of the lake for awhile. 63-80 hours about. Delta Ts get up to 18°C 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 I'm not even sure eurowx maps have the correct ratio algorithm. It's suggesting 10:1 here with temps in the mid 20s. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 I noticed the snow along the front on Monday evening. Breaks snow out near 43°N and then slides south and east. That could be interesting. Those frontogenesis bands can be fun/over perform as WAA tries to fight the incoming cold air. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 Maybe the models will start to trend back towards a stronger solution with the next couple runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 Maybe the models will start to trend back towards a stronger solution with the next couple runsIt definitely won't be starting with the 18z NAM. Zippo in the general area. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 NAM is a mess still. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 4km NAM shows the frontogenesis band though.If we can get that and the low to come north soon enough, it might be a good event. NAM does now show some snow in N IL, before it did not. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z EPS not even worth posting...pretty craptastic run...this will probably end up being a strong frontal boundary with a weak SLP that rides up along it towards S IL/IN/OH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 12z EPS not even worth posting...pretty craptastic run...this will probably end up being a strong frontal boundary with a weak SLP that rides up along it towards S IL/IN/OH. Right now I would side with an advisory event east of I-39. Detroit area on into Ontario might pull off something decent. This first wave, might grow legs and get stronger with time. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 Uffda Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 GFS is a mess this run. Some snow along the front as it settles south. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 Geos you are holding out hope? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 I don't see much coming out of this, models are getting worse and worse. Probably a turd on our hands like gosaints said a few days ago. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 It's another big dog...2""b" word. Your choice on the b word Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 Geos you are holding out hope? I'm holding onto the chance that this wave being created by the cold front moving down on Monday/Monday night will be robust enough for an advisory event at least. If you're close to the lake I think your chances are good for higher totals. It's another big dog...2""b" word. Your choice on the b word Already changed the wording. About to make another change. FWIW: the 6z and 18z runs don't ingest all the available data that the 12z and 0z runs contain. The system is way, way out in the Pacific still. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 It's another big dog...2""b" word. Your choice on the b word 'b' for 'bunch of hype! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_02272147_hd32.jpgCities at risk for enough snow to cause slick roads and disruptions to travel and daily routines in the Midwest include Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa; Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Chicago; Grand Rapids and Detroit, Michigan; Toledo and Cleveland, Ohio; and London, Ontario. Accu-weather on board! Jaster220..are ya ready?! Here we go again. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 Cities at risk for enough snow to cause slick roads and disruptions to travel and daily routines in the Midwest include Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa; Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Chicago; Grand Rapids and Detroit, Michigan; Toledo and Cleveland, Ohio; and London, Ontario. Accu-weather on board! Jaster220..are ya ready?! Here we go again. The map looks good, it's just that amounts are up in the air. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Not mocking the title Geos....just mother nature's excuse for a winter this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Not mocking the title Geos....just mother nature's excuse for a winter this year. I know you weren't. It doesn't look like a huge system anymore. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_02272147_hd32.jpgCities at risk for enough snow to cause slick roads and disruptions to travel and daily routines in the Midwest include Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa; Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Chicago; Grand Rapids and Detroit, Michigan; Toledo and Cleveland, Ohio; and London, Ontario. Accu-weather on board! Jaster220..are ya ready?! Here we go again. The map looks good, it's just that amounts are up in the air. Surprisingly on the underlined, WPC still painting 1"+ qpf through our corridor as of this afternoon's update, so who knows what they're thinking even after models went totally flat. Guess they're counting on a re-surge eventually as sampling gets better. (shrugs shoulders) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 I know you weren't. It doesn't look like a huge system anymore. Yeah, it fooled me too; it was prone to fool anyone when you see 18-24" amounts projected for a couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 The map looks good, it's just that amounts are up in the air.I think by Sunday afternoon, models should have a better handle on this system. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Surprisingly on the underlined, WPC still painting 1"+ qpf through our corridor as of this afternoon's update , so who knows what they're thinking even after models went totally flat. Guess they're counting on a re-surge eventually as sampling gets better. (shrugs shoulders) Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM run is actually pretty good for NE IL, paints 3-4" for downtown Chicago. Well, not 12z Euro on Thursday good, but definitely more than what 18z spit out. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Lol, model mayhem continues. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Through 72 hours, GFS. Similar to the NAM. Yeah I think this will be a flat wave now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 GGEM! Yeah! Storm starts going neutral tilt over IL. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Noticing the lake enhancement possibility is likely with the GGEM. 15-18 hours of winds blowing off the lake. If the EURO comes in stronger again, we could be onto something again. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Low looks a little better. Starts in western TX and ejects towards southern MO. High is actually allowing it to come out more easily. Low treks towards Cincinnati more or less. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Then further east. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 GEPS has some members with further north/amped up solutions. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Amounts on the EURO would likely be higher due to higher ratios. Could be talking 15:1. Some GEFS members north. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 To use a baseball analogy, tonight's runs are like when your team starts getting runners on base in the 8th inning of a game they're losing by 3-4 runs. All you can hope for is that they keep the line moving & avoid any big outs. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 NAM 06z, snow band goes north of 00z. S WI & S MI with the 3-6" snow band, and Geos finds himself near the 6" band. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 Some gfs ensembles are showing 1 + qpf for Southern WI and IL 6z GFS now showing 6-8 for Milwaukee and geos area as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 6z GFS: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160228/06Z/f084/acckucherasnowmw.png 6z NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160228/06Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png 6z RGEM at HR 48: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3285_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 GFS Ensembles at HR 60: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f60.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 28, 2016 Report Share Posted February 28, 2016 72 HR Precip http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f90.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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