PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Yet another heatwave on both the Euro and GFS now, I thought we would enter a cooler pattern but I guess not. The Euro and GFS are also getting close to 100 as well.

The ridge looks flat and transitory though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just don’t see how anyone thought we were going into a cool pattern within the next 7 days. The ensembles always showed another warm up...And to no surprise things are trending warmer. Every long term model has shown a warm September. It’s about as close to a lock as it gets. Good news, signal for October has been more mixed. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ridge looks flat and transitory though.

Yeah that's true, hopefully we can have a pattern change soon. I just hope fires don't get too bad.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This was in his latest update...

 

I'm skeptical of August coming in number one for the Puget Sound area.  SEA and OLM were both well short of 1967.  Bellingham was the warmest on record, but that is one out of three.  The official numbers will be in soon enough.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Yeah that's true, hopefully we can have a pattern change soon. I just hope fires don't get too bad.

Yeah....rain is a trickier question than settling into a cool pattern.  All in all the models show a couple of shortwaves over the next week keeping things within reason and then a big change to cool for week two.

[TT-SEA]

The elongated trough farther west on the ECMWF is more effective at pulling up that remnant hurricane moisture faster.   This run has it moving through WA already by Saturday.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just don’t see how anyone thought we were going into a cool pattern within the next 7 days. The ensembles always showed another warm up...And to no surprise things are trending warmer. Every long term model has shown a warm September. It’s about as close to a lock as it gets. Good news, signal for October has been more mixed. 

We're also just now getting into the more progressive point of the season where the fall jet begins to emerge in the mid latitudes. And it looks to begin more or less right on schedule. Next week has always looked pretty tenuous on the ensembles as the summer cutoff season kinds of clings to life. Much better agreement on the shift towards the 10th and beyond. And yes, the 12z GEFS still showed it too (a fact that got omitted when it was brought up earlier).

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We're also just now getting into the more progressive point of the season where the fall jet begins to emerge in the mid latitudes. And it looks to begin more or less right on schedule. Next week has always looked pretty tenuous on the ensembles as the summer cutoff season kinds of clings to life. Much better agreement on the shift towards the 10th and beyond. And yes, the 12z GEFS still showed it too (a fact that got omitted when it was brought up earlier).

No one is omitting anything.    The GEFS was only out through day 8 when that was posted.    I am just looking at the next 10 days.   Anything beyond day 7 is more of a wild crapshoot than it usually is at this point.

[TT-SEA]

Something else to consider... the ECMWF has been steadily trending westward over the last few runs with the mean trough position for next weekend.  And its probably not done shifting west.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

We're also just now getting into the more progressive point of the season where the fall jet begins to emerge in the mid latitudes. And it looks to begin more or less right on schedule. Next week has always looked pretty tenuous on the ensembles as the summer cutoff season kinds of clings to life. Much better agreement on the shift towards the 10th and beyond. And yes, the 12z GEFS still showed it too (a fact that got omitted when it was brought up earlier).

I’m not saying we won’t see cool weather this month either, and it wouldn’t shock me if rainfall were to end up near average, but the anomalies we are going to put up in the first 10 days of the month are going to be hard to overcome IMO.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No one is omitting anything.    The GEFS was only out through day 8 when that was posted.    I am just looking at the next 10 days.   Anything beyond day 7 is more of a wild crapshoot than it usually is at this point.

Maybe, but the GEFS is still clearly trending towards a pattern change by day 10 with the high pressure breaking down. As are the EPS and GEM ensembles. Feels kind of relevant to point that out, even in an addendum sort of way. Neglecting to is the kind of thing that, fair or not, fuels the perception from some on here that you are merely indulging in trollish tendencies. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by BLI snowman

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m not saying we won’t see cool weather this month either, and it wouldn’t shock me if rainfall were to end up near average, but the anomalies we are going to put up in the first 10 days of the month are going to be hard to overcome IMO.

I would be shocked if we see cool departures come month's end.

[TacomaWx]

Well that was a disappointing euro run. Could be worse I guess. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Maybe, but the GEFS is still clearly trending towards a pattern change by day 10 with the high pressure breaking down. As are the EPS and GEM ensembles. Feels kind of relevant to point that out, even in an addendum sort of way. Neglecting to is the kind of thing that, fair or not, fuels the perception from some on here that you are merely indulging in trollish tendencies. 

I have been posting troughy maps for several days.   Yesterday I went out of my way to post a very troughy ECMWF map for next weekend and said it was "definitely not in agreement" with the GFS's hot solution for that same time.   And I specifically agreed with your assessment of the ensembles and the troughing signal in the long range... and said so right after you posted it.   

It is what is.   I have no problem tracking any direction the models go.   

 

[Deweydog]

40 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Seems like mood swing season is already in full form.  

It ain’t fall unless we’re fightin’!!!

Or winter, or spring or summer…

[snow_wizard]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just don’t see how anyone thought we were going into a cool pattern within the next 7 days. The ensembles always showed another warm up...And to no surprise things are trending warmer. Every long term model has shown a warm September. It’s about as close to a lock as it gets. Good news, signal for October has been more mixed. 

The models all show a persistent -PNA pattern coming up for week two.  How is that obviously going to make a warm September?  Week one was shown to be mixed and week two the big cool down.

[snow_wizard]

This was the 0z EPS.  We will see what this run brings.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It ain’t fall unless we’re fightin’!!!

Or winter, or spring or summer…

A certain person always feels like they are personally being attacked when the models don't go their way and people are discussing the models.   Its a strange dynamic.   Like my interest in the weather is only based on his reactions.  I was thinking about that person when I was 4 years old doing my own mock TV broadcasts for my parents and drawing weather maps even though he did not exist yet.  No deep-seeded, genuine interest in tracking weather here.  

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have been posting troughy maps for several days.   Yesterday I went out of my way to post a very troughy ECMWF map for next weekend and said it was "definitely not in agreement" with the GFS's hot solution for that same time.   And I specifically agreed with your assessment of the ensembles and the troughing signal in the long range... and said so right after you posted it.   

It is what is.   I have no problem tracking any direction the models go.   

 

I get it, just pointing out how it seems like you can be selective about what you offer from a given model run. In your defense I think it's more a case of your reputation preceding you and I do agree that you've been reasonably balanced with it lately. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

I get it, just pointing out how it seems like you can be selective about what you offer from a given model run. In your defense I think it's more a case of your reputation preceding you and I do agree that you've been reasonably balanced with it lately. 

For sure... its the past that haunts us long timers.   And that is fair.  

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I get it, just pointing out how it seems like you can be selective about what you offer from a given model run. In your defense I think it's more a case of your reputation preceding you and I do agree that you've been reasonably balanced with it lately. 

Be that as it may, my money is on this month being normal or below.  It just feels like it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models all show a persistent -PNA pattern coming up for week two.  How is that obviously going to make a warm September?  Week one was shown to be mixed and week two the big cool down.

Big head start. Most places will be well above average for the month by the 10th or so. I don’t see the week 2 pattern off setting that. Especially when more clouds mean more warm nights. You have to admit we struggle to get below average lows in any season these days, with any pattern. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Well that was a disappointing euro run. Could be worse I guess. 

It shows SEA getting their first sub 50 low, and solidly cool later in the run.  There was always a good shot the ridge would come back early next week for one last gasp.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Big head start. Most places will be well above average for the month by the 10th or so. I don’t see the week 2 pattern off setting that. Especially when more clouds mean more warm nights. You have to admit we struggle to get below average lows in any season these days, with any pattern. 

It will probably be easier to pull off up here.  We have already been reasonably close to normal.  Only 63 IMBY right now.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This was the 0z EPS.  We will see what this run brings.

12Z EPS definitely trending west for next weekend... shorter term trends are important.   

[TT-SEA]

There will definitely be a troughy signal on the 12Z EPS in the 10-15 day period.    But we need to see the troughs inside of day 7 not get watered down if the long range is to be as meaningful.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It will probably be easier to pull off up here.  We have already been reasonably close to normal.  Only 63 IMBY right now.

It has actually gotten thicker here over the last hour.   Timing of this trough passage was perfect to maximize cool day potential. 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

This was in his latest update...

 

That’s only the month of August.

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This was the 0z EPS.  We will see what this run brings.

Same time on 12Z EPS...

 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

SW was in decent shape going into the summer of 2017 after that nice winter, and it didn't seem to help with knocking back the perma-4CH influence that developed over the entire region that summer. Just seems like the way it's going to be going forward.

Chicken/Egg. Expansive drought may further expand the 4CH but the tropical-subtropical z-circulations are what is ultimately driving it.

It may very well be that a powerful El Niño is needed to re-organize that system, which has been remarkably stable of late.

[Phil]

Continuing to rack up the 90+ days like candy here.

Hard to believe in the 19th century there were summers with less than 5 days at/above 90° all summer. Now it’s a struggle to get less than 40.

[TT-SEA]

Watching college football on a cool, cloudy day... feels like fall today.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny on the WA coast... and cloudy inland.    Today is not a "burn off" type of day like Thursday and yesterday but rather a day with clearing from west to east after a trough passage.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching college football on a cool, cloudy day... feels like fall today.

Gorgeous out! Got all the internal-combustion cars washed without fighting water spots within three minutes. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Deweydog

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Watching college football on a cool, cloudy day... feels like fall today.

Just finished the Iowa game... the score line for Iowa was 3, 2, 2. 

 A 7-3 baseball final score. Iowa got 2 safeties. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just finished the Iowa game... the score line for Iowa was 3, 2, 2. 

  A 7-3 baseball final score. Iowa got 2 safeties. 

My brother-in-law is an Iowa alum and rabid fan.   He is not happy with the offensive performance today.   I would love to know how many times a team ended up with 7 points in the college football game and that was not the result of TD?  

[TT-SEA]

Looking a bit rough for the Ducks so far as well.  

[snow_wizard]

On the EPS the PNA drops to -1 on the 8th and stays below that for the rest of the run.  It's coming!

[TT-SEA]

What a difference a day makes in the fire activity down in Oregon... must not be much wind behind this system.    So much better today.  

 

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Gorgeous out! Got all the cars internal-combustion cars washed without fighting water spots within three minutes. 

I love the internal combustion engine!