PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Chewbacca Defense]

I believe this song was quoted in the past day or so....seems appropriate

[snow_wizard]

I'm going normal or below for this month.

My August call was dead on albeit not shocking.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the ECMWF is coming up with some sexy solutions that would be Arctic in the winter.  Nice to see.

[snow_wizard]

It certainly appears the GFS is going to open September with a monumental bust.  It's going for 91 while we obviously have a significant marine push in progress.

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It certainly appears the GFS is going to open September with a monumental bust.  It's going for 91 while we obviously have a significant marine push in progress.

I'm not a big fan of the GFS as much as anyone here.. but I like how you continually call out this model for its WARM bias busts while giving the Euro the hall pass. 

I would wager that the Euro has busted on its outputs for being too cool as much as the GFS has been for its warm. 

[The Blob]

[Jbolin]

13 minutes ago, The Blob said:

Groovy man. Also, stop making clothes out of curtains.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

[TT-SEA]

SEA notched its 5th month ever with an average of 70+ degrees.  And it was a really close call to get right to 70.0.   

After a high of 85 yesterday... the low had to be at least 60 degrees or it would have fallen to 69.96 for the month.   And it got down to exactly 60 at 1 a.m. (which is the official end of the day during daylight savings).  So with 85/60 yesterday... the average came out to exactly 70.00 for the month.  

Also... every day had a high of at least 70 degrees in August which is quite rare.    Its only happened once in the last decade of warm summers.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

48 at EUG to open the month. 61 at PDX. ROFL LMAO

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

48 at EUG to open the month. 61 at PDX. ROFL LMAO

Well its clear in Eugene and cloudy in Portland... so that helps the disparity this morning.

[Meatyorologist]

61F and cloudy here. Nice morning to start off the month. Does not feel like a day that will reach 85-90F like the NWS thinks we will, but with increasing mixing and warming aloft, could have a sharp temp increase and an evening high.

September as a whole is a wildcard I think. A torch wouldn't shock me and neither would a chilly finish.

[Meatyorologist]

Models have backed off on the negative tilting w/ Friday's upper level disturbance. Means less differential flow aloft and diminished thunderstorm chances.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing how amped up the UHI at PDX is. Incredible to see the 13 degree difference with Eug . Pleasant morning down the valley, hellish warmth remains in the cesspool.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

61F and cloudy here. Nice morning to start off the month. Does not feel like a day that will reach 85-90F like the NWS thinks we will, but with increasing mixing and warming aloft, could have a sharp temp increase and an evening high.

September as a whole is a wildcard I think. A torch wouldn't shock me and neither would a chilly finish.

Warm airmass aloft 

[AmunRAEL]

61° here in Belltown Seattle this morning. 

[MossMan]

It’s over. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Severe clear

[LowerGarfield]

7 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I believe this song was quoted in the past day or so....seems appropriate

We woke up early for my son's first day and to try and wake up, I played that song. The adults were tired.

[AmunRAEL]

Interesting

Fall Forecast 

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/fall-2022-weather-forecast-update-la-nina-seasonal-usa-europe-fa/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some of the newer members of our flock enjoying the green grass in the front yard. We had some prolific hatches this summer, and even raised about 10 orphaned mallard ducklings someone brought us, they ended up flying away once they were old enough. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Got down to 59 this morning. Some across the region to start fall off. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FYI - I read the forest service is just going to let those fires in the Eagle Cap Wilderness burn. Which if I recall is typically their approach to fires in the Eagle Cap. They are just cutting lines around isolated private land holdings in the area. 

Both major fires in the wilderness put off pyrocumulus clouds yesterday.

Edited September 1, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warm airmass aloft 

Yep, above the marine layer the temp profile goes along w/ what you'd expect during a midsummer heatwave. Won't take much sfc heating to mix warm parcels down.

[AmunRAEL]

[Deweydog]

Been a cloudy fall here so far.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA notched its 5th month ever with an average of 70+ degrees.  And it was a really close call to get right to 70.0.   

After a high of 85 yesterday... the low had to be at least 60 degrees or it would have fallen to 69.96 for the month.   And it got down to exactly 60 at 1 a.m. (which is the official end of the day during daylight savings).  So with 85/60 yesterday... the average came out to exactly 70.00 for the month.  

Also... every day had a high of at least 70 degrees in August which is quite rare.    Its only happened once in the last decade of warm summers.

 

 

Man y’all have it easy even in torch months.

Average here was 80.4° despite the deep troughing mid-month. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of the newer members of our flock enjoying the green grass in the front yard. We had some prolific hatches this summer, and even raised about 10 orphaned mallard ducklings someone brought us, they ended up flying away once they were old enough. 

Do you still own sheep? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Do you still own sheep? 

I have one left. Got two goats this summer, and will probably get a couple more at some point and move in that direction. Good thing about goats is you don't have to shear them twice a year. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nice marine layer this morning with a low of 57. Still cloudy now and 61. Hopefully a harbinger of a better month to come.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Little bit of drizzle this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice marine layer this morning with a low of 57. Still cloudy now and 61. Hopefully a harbinger of a better month to come.

I won't get my hopes up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad GOOFUS run. 

[Omegaraptor]

In Chicago today. A couple things:

It’s noon and already 87 outside. The hottest time of the day is definitely much earlier here than it is on the west coast.

The humidity is not that bad today (so far). DP is about 60. Have had many many hotter feeling days in Portland this summer lol

[GobBluth]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a bad GOOFUS run. 

Interseasonal transitions commence Saturday?

[AmunRAEL]

Whoa!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really positive momentum now. Let's keep it rolling folx. 

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Whoa!!!

Those warm splotches in PA are suspicious to me. There’s nothing in the pattern that would have produced those results, as far as I can tell.

This summer was very close to average here. In fact I’d consider it the most “tolerable” summer overall since 2014, all things considered. It was warmer than 2018, but humidity was lower this year (only recorded 2 days with dewpoints above 80°F, and none in July).

And convection was very impressive yet again this year. Got off to a slow start but once that western ridge/4CH popped up in July, shortwave troughs starting diving in right at peak heating, igniting powerful storms multiple times per week. Perfection.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

How were the morning GFS ensembles?

[Phil]

We’re gonna pay dearly for this in future summers.

2nd consecutive summer in the jackpot. Not quite as good as last year, but still a very lucky outcome.