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I'm going normal or below for this month.

My August call was dead on albeit not shocking.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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No doubt the ECMWF is coming up with some sexy solutions that would be Arctic in the winter.  Nice to see.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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It certainly appears the GFS is going to open September with a monumental bust.  It's going for 91 while we obviously have a significant marine push in progress.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 5.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 24

Lows 32 or below = 24

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It certainly appears the GFS is going to open September with a monumental bust.  It's going for 91 while we obviously have a significant marine push in progress.

I'm not a big fan of the GFS as much as anyone here.. but I like how you continually call out this model for its WARM bias busts while giving the Euro the hall pass. 

I would wager that the Euro has busted on its outputs for being too cool as much as the GFS has been for its warm. 

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1 hour ago, The Blob said:

FB_IMG_1661271500347.jpg

It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia - Frank Reynolds Dancing on Make a GIF

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 14 (Most recent: Dec 3, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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SEA notched its 5th month ever with an average of 70+ degrees.  And it was a really close call to get right to 70.0.   

After a high of 85 yesterday... the low had to be at least 60 degrees or it would have fallen to 69.96 for the month.   And it got down to exactly 60 at 1 a.m. (which is the official end of the day during daylight savings).  So with 85/60 yesterday... the average came out to exactly 70.00 for the month.  

Also... every day had a high of at least 70 degrees in August which is quite rare.    Its only happened once in the last decade of warm summers.

 

Screenshot_20220901-062325_Chrome.jpg

 

Screenshot_20220901-062535_Chrome.jpg

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

48 at EUG to open the month. 61 at PDX. ROFL LMAO

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

48 at EUG to open the month. 61 at PDX. ROFL LMAO

Well its clear in Eugene and cloudy in Portland... so that helps the disparity this morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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61F and cloudy here. Nice morning to start off the month. Does not feel like a day that will reach 85-90F like the NWS thinks we will, but with increasing mixing and warming aloft, could have a sharp temp increase and an evening high.

September as a whole is a wildcard I think. A torch wouldn't shock me and neither would a chilly finish.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Models have backed off on the negative tilting w/ Friday's upper level disturbance. Means less differential flow aloft and diminished thunderstorm chances.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer

Amazing how amped up the UHI at PDX is. Incredible to see the 13 degree difference with Eug . Pleasant morning down the valley, hellish warmth remains in the cesspool.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
35 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

61F and cloudy here. Nice morning to start off the month. Does not feel like a day that will reach 85-90F like the NWS thinks we will, but with increasing mixing and warming aloft, could have a sharp temp increase and an evening high.

September as a whole is a wildcard I think. A torch wouldn't shock me and neither would a chilly finish.

Warm airmass aloft 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Severe clear

D4FD3D7B-AEB7-4E11-BF5C-A1D22BCB542E.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I believe this song was quoted in the past day or so....seems appropriate

We woke up early for my son's first day and to try and wake up, I played that song. The adults were tired.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 3.5 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 1.70 inches (12/4/22 & 12/5/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) snowfall: 1.5 on 12/5/22

Days with any snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 13F (11/29/2022)

Last sub freezing high: 12/5/22

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  • Longtimer

Some of the newer members of our flock enjoying the green grass in the front yard. We had some prolific hatches this summer, and even raised about 10 orphaned mallard ducklings someone brought us, they ended up flying away once they were old enough. 

69D263F5-5E4F-4E67-AB32-5A03AB123F2E.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

FYI - I read the forest service is just going to let those fires in the Eagle Cap Wilderness burn. Which if I recall is typically their approach to fires in the Eagle Cap. They are just cutting lines around isolated private land holdings in the area. 

Both major fires in the wilderness put off pyrocumulus clouds yesterday.

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Warm airmass aloft 

Yep, above the marine layer the temp profile goes along w/ what you'd expect during a midsummer heatwave. Won't take much sfc heating to mix warm parcels down.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 48"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 2.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1.5”; December 3rd, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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58 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s over. 

6C8B8470-F95F-4ED4-BE0D-184A087EAE9D.jpeg

I have a feeling our house is going to start looking similar over the next day or two. I used to be able to hold off my wife on putting out the fall stuff until October 1st but somehow that goal post has gotten moved to September 1st this year. "Oh it's a -BER month so I can put out all my stuff now!" Funny how that works.

I don't mind it too much as I really enjoy holiday/seasonal decorations. But something about pulling them out too early just feels wrong to me. Similar to how Costco already having Christmas stuff on display also feels wrong. One holiday at a time here people!

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Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA notched its 5th month ever with an average of 70+ degrees.  And it was a really close call to get right to 70.0.   

After a high of 85 yesterday... the low had to be at least 60 degrees or it would have fallen to 69.96 for the month.   And it got down to exactly 60 at 1 a.m. (which is the official end of the day during daylight savings).  So with 85/60 yesterday... the average came out to exactly 70.00 for the month.  

Also... every day had a high of at least 70 degrees in August which is quite rare.    Its only happened once in the last decade of warm summers.

 

Screenshot_20220901-062325_Chrome.jpg

 

Screenshot_20220901-062535_Chrome.jpg

Man y’all have it easy even in torch months.

Average here was 80.4° despite the deep troughing mid-month. 

155AB9A2-5E41-4441-B6CA-715583E005F0.jpeg

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of the newer members of our flock enjoying the green grass in the front yard. We had some prolific hatches this summer, and even raised about 10 orphaned mallard ducklings someone brought us, they ended up flying away once they were old enough. 

69D263F5-5E4F-4E67-AB32-5A03AB123F2E.jpeg

Do you still own sheep? 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Do you still own sheep? 

I have one left. Got two goats this summer, and will probably get a couple more at some point and move in that direction. Good thing about goats is you don't have to shear them twice a year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice marine layer this morning with a low of 57. Still cloudy now and 61. Hopefully a harbinger of a better month to come.

I won't get my hopes up. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Not a bad GOOFUS run. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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In Chicago today. A couple things:

It’s noon and already 87 outside. The hottest time of the day is definitely much earlier here than it is on the west coast.

The humidity is not that bad today (so far). DP is about 60. Have had many many hotter feeling days in Portland this summer lol

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  • Longtimer

Really positive momentum now. Let's keep it rolling folx. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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24 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Whoa!!! 😯

FblnXrvaUAAbfVD.jpeg

Those warm splotches in PA are suspicious to me. There’s nothing in the pattern that would have produced those results, as far as I can tell.

This summer was very close to average here. In fact I’d consider it the most “tolerable” summer overall since 2014, all things considered. It was warmer than 2018, but humidity was lower this year (only recorded 2 days with dewpoints above 80°F, and none in July).

And convection was very impressive yet again this year. Got off to a slow start but once that western ridge/4CH popped up in July, shortwave troughs starting diving in right at peak heating, igniting powerful storms multiple times per week. Perfection. 👍 

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How were the morning GFS ensembles?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 4F (Dec 1, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 14 (Most recent: Dec 3, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Dec 5, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 0.5"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 0

 

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We’re gonna pay dearly for this in future summers.

2nd consecutive summer in the jackpot. Not quite as good as last year, but still a very lucky outcome.

49E6FAB1-2741-436D-8BCC-EAD68E6D49CB.png345B7532-3B29-44E5-9DB4-1CCC94B54901.png

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

How were the morning GFS ensembles?

Not bad sir.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, Phil said:

We’re gonna pay dearly for this in future summers.

2nd consecutive summer in the jackpot. Not quite as good as last year, but still a very lucky outcome.

49E6FAB1-2741-436D-8BCC-EAD68E6D49CB.png345B7532-3B29-44E5-9DB4-1CCC94B54901.png

 

LWX does severe thunderstorm warnings like PQR does winter storm warnings.

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12Z ECMWF is much less amplified.    That massive ridge over Alaska on the 00Z run for later next week has been been replaced with a deep trough up there on the 12Z run.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is much less amplified.    That massive ridge over Alaska on the 00Z run for later next week has been been replaced with a deep trough up there on the 12Z run.   

That energy up in Alaska is proving to be extremely stubborn to break down. Might have to wait until later in October before that signature changes.

Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That energy up in Alaska is proving to be extremely stubborn to break down. Might have to wait until later in October before that signature changes.

Better now than January. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 11.2"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That energy up in Alaska is proving to be extremely stubborn to break down. Might have to wait until later in October before that signature changes.

Any reason for late October specifically?

Seems conceivable that it could change sooner considering we’ve been stuck with that pattern since sometime in July, and now wavelengths are shortening/lengthening.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better now than January. 

Agreed! I'm sensing a lot of GOA ridging by mid fall through winter this year. 

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Cold Season 2022/23:

Total snowfall: 44"

Highest daily snowfall: 18"

Deepest snow depth: 16"

Coldest high: 8ºF

Coldest low: -7ºF

Number of subzero days: 6

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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