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NorCal and OR get some very decent rainfall out of tropical remanants around D11 on the 06z GFS. San Jose actually gets some breezy weather out of sfc pressure gradients right at the end of that low's life... Technically tropical disturbance winds in central Cali. Neat.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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45F4D535-2670-4405-9A02-01D0C39165FE.gif

GIF for reference... Would not be surprised to never see this feature pop up again in future runs. Also would be an unexpected and interesting way to end the fire season in the southern PNW.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Longtimer
30 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

56 here this morning...low of 65 so far at PDX.

You may want to prepare for a bonus 90.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Still no rain in sight.  

Likely one of the most extreme flips ever out here this spring and summer.   It rained almost every day for 90 days and now we are going 90 days with almost no rain.     Obviously there is a flip every year between spring and summer... but this one takes the cake.  

The period from March 20 - June 20 was recording setting in terms of persistent rain in the foothills.    And I will have to look it up, but it seems pretty likely that the June 20 - Sept 20 period might be record setting in terms of dry.  

Normally we would have had 30-35 additional dry days in the spring... and 20-25 additional days with rain from June 20 - Sept 20.      Somewhat balanced.     Not this year.    

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

45F4D535-2670-4405-9A02-01D0C39165FE.gif

GIF for reference... Would not be surprised to never see this feature pop up again in future runs. Also would be an unexpected and interesting way to end the fire season in the southern PNW.

Shows up well in the total precip map on the GFS... WA is an island of dry while even CA gets meaningful rain.

gfs-deterministic-namer-total_precip_inch-3480800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Satellite shows that the low clouds are very patchy this morning like the ECMWF showed.   They formed in place in the valleys and did not solidly come inland from the coast like yesterday.   Should be a quick burn off today.

It also shows a massive fire down in Oregon pumping out an incredible amount of smoke.   Luckily the flow is supposed to stay onshore up here.    Any offshore flow now would get real ugly real fast.

 

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20220902.140617-over=map-bars=.gif

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Satellite shows that the low clouds are very patchy this morning like the ECMWF showed.   They formed in place in the valleys and did not solidly come inland from the coast like yesterday.   Should be a quick burn off today.

It also shows a massive fire down in Oregon pumping out an incredible amount of smoke.   Luckily the flow is supposed to stay onshore up here.    Any offshore flow now would get real ugly real fast.

 

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20220902.140617-over=map-bars=.gif

Started out clear here but clouds and fog have formed in place. 57 degrees. 

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Tomorrow will be the opposite again with low clouds coming in solidly all the way to the Cascades in the morning and not clearing until early afternoon.    Then basically no low clouds on Sunday morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

I would say a bit of a step back on the 06z ensembles. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like the July/August period was the second driest ever at the Cedar Lake station... just behind 2017.  

Also looks like the June 20 - Sept 20 period in 2017 was very similar to this year overall.    The first significant rain came in the 3rd week of September.     

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Satellite shows that the low clouds are very patchy this morning like the ECMWF showed.   They formed in place in the valleys and did not solidly come inland from the coast like yesterday.   Should be a quick burn off today.

It also shows a massive fire down in Oregon pumping out an incredible amount of smoke.   Luckily the flow is supposed to stay onshore up here.    Any offshore flow now would get real ugly real fast.

 

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20220902.140617-over=map-bars=.gif

It's still quite thick here in Sodo... down to ground level... but starting to lift. 

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2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

That fire in Oregon looks crazy right now

Capture.JPG

Apparently that is the Cedar Creek fire which started on August 1st by lightning and has now finally exploded over a month later.  

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  • Longtimer

Was sunny at my house but as soon as I dropped down about 100’ on my way to work it was thick soup. 
Yes I had my heated steering wheel on since fall is here. 

11E8AEFB-17E4-499A-8DD7-C6052F63AF59.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I've noticed that UW WRF GFS is pretty different Regular GFS sometimes I have seen different temperature forecasted from the two big differences sometimes.

Overall I like UW WRF GFS more so especially the 1 1/3km runs

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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  • Longtimer

That Cedar Creek Fire is burning in an area with very heavy fuel loads. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That Cedar Creek Fire is burning in an area with very heavy fuel loads. 

Looks like it’s moving NNE…maybe firefighters have a chance of containment in that big burn scar area to the NE?

3CBEE1B2-262A-4518-8397-F0DC92F80314.jpeg

46E8D460-A139-4C50-87DE-BB1ED83DBE8B.jpeg

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-64

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Wet season rainfall-0.00”

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8 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I've noticed that UW WRF GFS is pretty different Regular GFS sometimes I have seen different temperature forecasted from the two big differences sometimes.

Overall I like UW WRF GFS more so especially the 1 1/3km runs

The UW WRF is not even the GFS tbh...  This is a research model. It has bits and pieces of the GFS but it's still a completely different model. 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The UW WRF is not even the GFS tbh...  This is a research model. It has bits and pieces of the GFS but it's still a completely different model. 

I think it does decent especially with winter snowfalls 

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Predicted high temps based off UW WRF GFS for today

ps_tsfc.24.0000.gif

I’m in the green! ☃️

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A forested Waldo Lake basin was nice while it lasted 

It wanted to fit in with its friends. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Much slower... and also moving more north to south than to the east.     But will probably form in place around Seattle later.  

Here is the ECMWF cloud map for 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. tomorrow:

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-2130800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-2141600.png

I don't think the 11 am view is going to be correct.  It is very socked in here right now, fairly drippy too.

I like it.

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8 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I don't think the 11 am view is going to be correct.  It is very socked in here right now, fairly drippy too.

I like it.

Totally sunny in Seattle already just a few miles east of you.      You can see how low the fog bank is over you from the Space Needle cam.  

sea 9-2.png

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18 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

the 4CH has become its own pole

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1662120000-1662508800-1662843600-5.gif

12Z GFS is warmer for next week but then much cooler for next weekend compared to the 00Z run.     But it will probably trend warmer again as that period gets closer.   The 12Z GEM and 12Z ICON look fairly ridgy for next weekend. 

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1 hour ago, Randyc321 said:

I don't think the 11 am view is going to be correct.  It is very socked in here right now, fairly drippy too.

I like it.

Looks like ECMWF nailed it... cleared up by 11.

Screenshot_20220902-105502_Chrome.jpg

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  • Longtimer

How accurate is that Hrrr smoke model within 24 hours? It's showing a very nasty plume through our area from that Cedar Creek Fire. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How accurate is that Hrrr smoke model within 24 hours? It's showing a very nasty plume through our area from that Cedar Creek Fire. 

Pretty accurate. You can see the that plume moving NNW currently on satellite. Next couple of days look really smokey for just about everywhere in the NW.

Looking like the smoke might actually keep us from breaking record highs here tomorrow.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How accurate is that Hrrr smoke model within 24 hours? It's showing a very nasty plume through our area from that Cedar Creek Fire. 

Fully prepared to have that fuckking thing enter the McKenzie watershed and our semi-annual ash storm force us to wear gas masks inside our houses.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

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My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

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Red flag conditions on the cedar creek:

Behavior forecast- A rapid increase in fire behavior is expected in the afternoon hours, during the peak burning period associated with a red flag warning and the passage of a dry cold front. The frontal passage is likely to be able to scrub out the lingering smoke cover and expose fuels to the full potential of the weather conditions. Large fire growth with an associated well developed convection column will allow for the most extreme spotting conditions to occur, up to 2 miles. Expect sustained active backing and flanking, with winds shifting from the SE to the NW in the morning and early afternoon hours. Once the system passes, and the air clears, fire behavior will increase very quickly, transitioning from mostly surface fire to crowning fire, especially where terrain, fuel, and wind are in alignment.*

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22 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Pretty accurate. You can see the that plume moving NNW currently on satellite. Next couple of days look really smokey for just about everywhere in the NW.

Looking like the smoke might actually keep us from breaking record highs here tomorrow.

Looks like it way over done though... this is supposed be right now and its not nearly this bad on this side of the mountains or in eastern WA.

 

trc1_NW_int_f005.png

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20220902.182117-over=map-bars=.gif

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like it way over done though... this is supposed be right now and its not nearly this bad on this side of the mountains or in eastern WA.

 

trc1_NW_int_f005.png

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20220902.182117-over=map-bars=.gif

That's not a very hi-res satellite image but the smoke is indeed all over the NW right now as the HRRR shows. Better to look at higher resolution and offset views just after dawn and just before dusk to spot the aloft smoke.

20222451406-20222451801-GOES18-ABI-PNW-G

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

That's not a very hi-res satellite image but the smoke is indeed all over the NW right now as the HRRR shows. Better to look at higher resolution and offset views just after dawn and just before dusk to spot the aloft smoke.

20222451406-20222451801-GOES18-ABI-PNW-G

True... but its not nearly as bad as the HRRR indicates right now.   The is technically smoke aloft but its barely noticeable.   It does show that main plume shifting west right over SEA and PDX tonight but then it mostly gets shoved east tomorrow morning with stronger onshore flow.

And by Sunday morning its way east...

 

 

trc1_NW_int_f048.png

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... but its not nearly as bad as the HRRR indicates right now.   The is technically smoke aloft but its barely noticeable.   It does show that main plume shifting west right over SEA and PDX tonight but then it mostly gets shoved east tomorrow morning with stronger onshore flow.

And by Sunday morning its way east...

 

 

trc1_NW_int_f048.png

Nonetheless, it is very smokey aloft right now. If you're looking for near ground level smoke then look at the "near ground level" parameter on the HRRR model which fortunately doesn't look too bad over the next couple of days. 

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

True... but its not nearly as bad as the HRRR indicates right now.   The is technically smoke aloft but its barely noticeable.   It does show that main plume shifting west right over SEA and PDX tonight but then it mostly gets shoved east tomorrow morning with stronger onshore flow.

And by Sunday morning its way east...

 

 

trc1_NW_int_f048.png

Yesterday was worse once everything cleared out and it was very hazy late in the afternoon. So it was definitely noticeable.

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2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yesterday was worse once everything cleared out and it was very hazy late in the afternoon. So it was definitely noticeable.

Yeah it looks very noticeable to me currently on the space needle webcam. Similar here as well. Blue sky above but the tell tale white haze on the horizon.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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