PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This kind of crap is so common anymore it’s just boring 

Agreed. Who gives a flying f$ck. 
 

In other news the GEM looks splendid.

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

We could have had a shot at it yesterday as well if it had been 16 degrees warmer. Food for thought...

I thought my argument was pretty valid, considering the early 95+ degree observation. They remained nearly the same temperature for the following few hours. 

Different if someone is actually running 16 degrees higher compared to wishing it was 16 degrees higher. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a feeling we are screwed until

something happens with this SW drought... Cue the automatic reply about a Nino... but there are other ways...

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Anyone notice KLMT being 95 at 12:53? Then this SSW wind with gusts >30mph. Without that wind, I wonder if they would have broken a September record too.

Well they already set the July record this year and the June record last year. And their longest streak of temps above 95 and 100 during the July heatwave too. Also I just noticed that the July/August period this year was the warmest on record at KLMT.

[RentonHill]

It’s like legit raining kinda hard 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a feeling we are screwed until

something happens with this SW drought... Cue the automatic reply about a Nino... but there are other ways...

Nino is the best bet.    3 years of Nina has just made it much worse.     

But for people who like warm summers in the PNW... its starting to feeling like Nina is now the best bet.  

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Well they already set the July record this year and the June record last year. And their longest streak of temps above 95 and 100 during the July heatwave too. Also I just noticed that the July/August period this year was the warmest on record at KLMT.

Single out August though and it's one of the last remaining months that still has some old records to beat.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s like legit raining kinda hard 

Strange morning.    Just started drizzling here now but I can also see the sun through the clouds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think this forum has been infected by a bot...

Edited September 3, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Strange morning.    Just started drizzling here now but I can also see the sun through the clouds.

0.06 with a 0.24/hr rate. Very surprised I was just expecting some drizz

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have a feeling we are screwed until

something happens with this SW drought... Cue the automatic reply about a Nino... but there are other ways...

SW was in decent shape going into the summer of 2017 after that nice winter, and it didn't seem to help with knocking back the perma-4CH influence that developed over the entire region that summer. Just seems like the way it's going to be going forward.

[Doinko]

I know some people here are tired of warm weather records (I'd rather have the opposite too!) but I decided to check how warm the July/August period has been around the PNW. The ranks by climate district:

In every single climate district in Oregon, this was the warmest July/August period. I might check individual stations later 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

0.06 with a 0.24/hr rate. Very surprised I was just expecting some drizz

That is impressive.   SEA is also up to .06 now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

SW was in decent shape going into the summer of 2017 after that nice winter, and it didn't seem to help with knocking back the perma-4CH influence that developed over the entire region that summer. Just seems like the way it's going to be going forward.

Ugh  

You are probably right.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doiinko said:

I know some people here are tired of warm weather records (I'd rather have the opposite too!) but I decided to check how warm the July/August period has been around the PNW. The ranks by climate district:

In every single climate district in Oregon, this was the warmest July/August period. I might check individual stations later 

Do you watch the Ag Weather update by Eric Snodgrass?   He had that same map in his last update on Thursday.  

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Do you watch the Ag Weather update by Eric Snodgrass?   He had that same map in his last update on Thursday.  

I haven't had the time to watch them recently, but I generated the map using this site:
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&csector=conus&var=avgt&p=day&year=2022&month=8&sdate=2022%2F07%2F02&edate=2022%2F08%2F31&cmap=RdBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I know some people here are tired of warm weather records (I'd rather have the opposite too!) but I decided to check how warm the July/August period has been around the PNW. The ranks by climate district:

In every single climate district in Oregon, this was the warmest July/August period. I might check individual stations later 

Definitely seems apparent that our summers are now officially warming faster than even the rest of the country. By a pretty safe margin.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I haven't had the time to watch them recently, but I generated the map using this site:
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&csector=conus&var=avgt&p=day&year=2022&month=8&sdate=2022%2F07%2F02&edate=2022%2F08%2F31&cmap=RdBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This was in his latest update...

 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This was in his latest update...

 

Yeah I think the one he used was for the month of August, the one I posted was for the July/August period. The IEM site is really fun to play with to compare summers and many other things.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Our summers will warm rapidly until we have completely killed off the marine influence. Down here we are fairly close... Then I would expect things stabilize a bit. 

[YahRaEl]

Currently in Belltown Seattle 

[TT-SEA]

Time to see what the ECMWF says.   It usually follows the GEM when there are significant model differences.   I wouldn't be surprised to see it trending more troughy.

[Cascadia_Wx]

40 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

SW was in decent shape going into the summer of 2017 after that nice winter, and it didn't seem to help with knocking back the perma-4CH influence that developed over the entire region that summer. Just seems like the way it's going to be going forward.

Yeah, it has a lot more to do with warming global climate and expanding Hadley cells than it does with something as localized as drought in a particular region. Although I’m sure SW drought can have some sort of feedback effect once it’s established, it’s the larger mechanisms that are causing multi year drought down there in the first place.

[Cascadia_Wx]

66 with some light rain and drizzle here in the last half hour. Kind of a nice surprise.

[snow_wizard]

1971 is the number one analog to the 12z GFS at day 11.  Yes please!  No doubt that winter was the one I have the fondest memories of from my childhood.

That was a second year Nina +QBO as well.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF clearly trending towards washing out the mid-week system a little more like the GFS.

00Z run for Wednesday on top and new 12Z on the bottom:

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF takes away the rain event in the Seattle area for Thursday that the 00Z run showed.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Great trends for wildfire/death enthusiasts on the Euro.

[snow_wizard]

58 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I know some people here are tired of warm weather records (I'd rather have the opposite too!) but I decided to check how warm the July/August period has been around the PNW. The ranks by climate district:

In every single climate district in Oregon, this was the warmest July/August period. I might check individual stations later 

 

53 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Definitely seems apparent that our summers are now officially warming faster than even the rest of the country. By a pretty safe margin.

Our summers have warmed faster than pretty much anywhere on the planet this century according to the reanalysis maps I've looked at.  As I've said it's more of a placement issue than the overall warming of the globe being THAT extreme.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Everyone would be better off if summer was skipped over altogether. All things considered it serves no purpose.

It is also by far the longest season of the year here. And the slowest to transition out of. Fuuk it.

So....when are you moving?

It seems the weather where you are at affects your mental health given how much you complain about it.  Do you have a long-term plan in mind?

And I'm pretty sure farmers would disagree with your "serves no purpose" comment. 

[Kayla]

Euro is caving...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great trends for wildfire/death enthusiasts on the Euro.

No point in feeding the trolls. No response deprives them the pleasure.

Edited September 3, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great trends for wildfire/death enthusiasts on the Euro.

Just love the feeling of being punched in the gut again and again. I need something. I can’t do this anymore

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Never put much stock in the short/mid range stuff.  No real pattern change until at least mid month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just love the feeling of being punched in the gut again and again. I need something. I can’t do this anymore

Someone told me 100mg edibles are like $6 now.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great trends for wildfire/death enthusiasts on the Euro.

Yet another heatwave on both the Euro and GFS now, I thought we would enter a cooler pattern but I guess not. The GFS is also getting close to 100 as well.

[Kayla]

Euro has really been struggling in the medium range for a while now so I guess not too surprising. Lots of GFS haters but you have to admit that it seems to be doing a good job picking up on overall pattern progressions in the medium/long range.

[snow_wizard]

54 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Our summers will warm rapidly until we have completely killed off the marine influence. Down here we are fairly close... Then I would expect things stabilize a bit. 

I'm not so sure.  This hot summer thing came on so quickly that it could just as quickly go the other way.  We just don't have enough data to fully understand the recent ridiculous warming we have seen.  I would certainly rather see the huge warming in the summer than winter though.  Other than January our winters have been ok lately.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No point in feeding the trolls. No response deprives them the pleasure.

No one is trolling.  Except for maybe the models.  We are just pawns in nature's game.  

[Cloud]

Seems like mood swing season is already in full form.