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April 2016 Observations and Discussion


Geos

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I arrived at Bryce Canyon, Utah yesterday and did some hiking inside the national park today, which, coincidentally is celebrating 100 years!

 

All I have to say is...God's country...the trail we went on (Sunrise and Sunset Point) are known as the most beautiful 3 mile trail in the world. People from all over are here including east Asia and Europe. It felt like we were in a different country! Hands down, Top 3 best hike I ever did.

 

I'll post some pics later on...

 

That sounds like a great adventure! I have yet see anything past New Mexico - as far as the southwest goes. I have to go when it's not so hot though, like the winter or spring - because I want to go hiking in several parks out there.

 

Meanwhile it is the most humid day of the year so far with dewpoints in the mid 50s this morning.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Hope this pans out for those that missed out on the rain the other day. I will gladly add to my totals; hard to believe this is the same storm system that has been in our area since Saturday! 

Received another 1.6", bringing my storm total to 3.3" of rain. I haven't had a chance to plant my potatoes in the garden yet either....looks like will be planting them a little later this year! 

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Today much colder. Sitting at 44° with cloudy skies at noon.

 

Can't believe the EURO is showing a wet snow system for May 1st!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Today much colder. Sitting at 44° with cloudy skies at noon.

 

Can't believe the EURO is showing a wet snow system for May 1st!

GFS has a severe event in the same area for may 1st.  :lol:

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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GFS has a severe event in the same area for may 1st.  :lol:

 

Lol, this pattern is something else this month. Can't seem to string more than 2 or 3 days warm days in a row here at least. 

 

Sunday is supposed to warm here, will see. Big synoptic rain system on the EURO for next Wednesday, widespread 40s for highs north of I-80.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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The hiking trip in Bryce Canyon was fantastic. So much beauty, so little time.  2 full days of hiking was not enough to tackle all of the trails out there.  Nonetheless, the weather turned out great and so did many pictures that I took.

 

I was surprised as to how high the elevation was on these trails.  Most, if not all, began near the 8,000ft level and had some pretty good descent.  Every where the eye can see I was in awe by the dramatic beauty of the Canyon/National Park.  The power of erosion by rain/snow/ice combo carves out these gorgeous columns of rock.  About 2 weeks ago, we had some storm systems that traversed the region which dumped feet of snow in the area.  Luckily, I was able to get a taste of what little snow was left over while I was there (you know I love my snow)!

 

I highly recommend visiting this place. PM me if you want some insight.

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On the way back to PHX, we made a quick stop into Zion National Park, UT earlier this afternoon...another phenomenal place to visit.  Surprisingly, Zion is actually about 5,000ft in elevation and roughly 10F cooler.  It hit 80F today in Zion, while in Bryce Canyon it made it to 70F.

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CPC's update outlook for May...looks cool and wet for the central/southern Plains

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif'

 

 

 

Through the first half of Summer...might get a bit dry near the Lakes

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

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Those pictures are breathtaking Tom! Especially like the 3rd and 4th one of Bryce.

 

That's probably the next area I'll visit. 

Traveling for me is put on hold for the time being. Trying to land a job in my field right now and it looks like it might land me in the west.

 

---

Back on the weather. Except for tomorrow and most of Monday on the EURO is remains cool and rainy the next of the 8 days. EURO has snow in southern MN on Wednesday night!

 

Entire 10 days.

 

post-7-0-19915700-1461443676_thumb.png

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Another summer tease in Chitown today and tomorrow.  Looks cool and wet Tuesday through the next weekend.  Lot's of moisture being depicted on the models for next week.  

 

Hawks force a Game 7 on Monday night against the Blues in St. Louis.  Should be another great game.  Go Hawks!

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So far today it has been mostly cloudy with a ESE/SE wind. Still 50s at noon. Looks like the warmest part of the day might be after sunset tonight when the front finally clears!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom, I was at Zion last July. Seeing your photos brought back some fun memories. Very beautiful place.

 

Weather has been less than exciting here in Topeka for weeks on end. Our first real risk of tornadoes this spring looks to be Tuesday (4/26). - Mike

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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On the way back to PHX, we made a quick stop into Zion National Park, UT earlier this afternoon...another phenomenal place to visit.  Surprisingly, Zion is actually about 5,000ft in elevation and roughly 10F cooler.  It hit 80F today in Zion, while in Bryce Canyon it made it to 70F.

Great pics Tom. Thanks for posting.

 

BTW: No leaves here in SEMI yet and here we are in late April. This was the case back of Spring 2013 and we all know what winter we had that year into 2014. Maybe a sign of a harsh winter coming. Last year this time, leaves were already out.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:D  2nd gorgeous weekend in a row here in SWMI  :D    A perfect spring day on Saturday with calm winds, abundant sunshine and 60*F temp made for a perfect yard work day. Yesterday we hit 70*F under mostly sunny conditions that lasted until sunset. Went to Lake Michigan and it looked more like a day in June than April. Loving that May outlook Tom posted for SMI. Flowering trees are out this year while we still have some of the early blooming flowers that got delayed by the cold start this month. That's rare in itself and a nice pay-back for all the snow we suffered through. Larger trees just now starting to leaf out, but the hardier ones still aren't quite there. They don't usually get leafs until 1st half of May anyways so we're not that far off of average if you ask me.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like we will be seeing our first potential "high risk" day tomorrow. Things are coming together for a significant outbreak of severe weather and possibly long tracked tornadoes. 

 

SPC AC 250555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEB...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEB...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...MUCH OF OK AND NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB TO THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH
BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TUESDAY. A 60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET
WILL OVERSPREAD TX INTO OK/KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DCVA.
THIS WILL BE ALIGNED WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE STRETCHING S/SW FROM
ROUGHLY CNTRL KS...WRN OK AND W-CNTRL TX BY 00Z/WED. THERE IS STILL
SOME VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW
POSITION...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER
WITH THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING W-E NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
KS BORDER AT 00Z. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AS FAR
NORTH AS S-CNTRL/SE NEB. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON...AND STRONG HEATING NEAR
THE DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS OK INTO N TX. DEPENDING ON YOUR FAVORED
MODEL DEPICTION...A BI-MODAL COVERAGE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
INITIAL VORT MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS N-CNTRL OK INTO KS AND
S-CNTRL NEB. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL EJECT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
CNTRL/NRN TX LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RELATIVE MIN
SOMEWHERE...BUT WHERE THIS IS REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
REGARDLESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSE
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. STRONG /POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/ TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
/PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AFOREMENTIONED
COVERAGE CONCERNS WILL PRECLUDE A HIGH RISK AT THIS TIME.

DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS OR BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO. WHILE A TORNADO
THREAT WILL LINGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT...A TRANSITION TOWARD MAINLY
A LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING-WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX...STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THAN FURTHER NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A NIGHTTIME
TORNADO RISK BEFORE STORMS POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THEY APPROACH
NORTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

FileL.png

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:D  2nd gorgeous weekend in a row here in SWMI  :D    A perfect spring day on Saturday with calm winds, abundant sunshine and 60*F temp made for a perfect yard work day. Yesterday we hit 70*F under mostly sunny conditions that lasted until sunset. Went to Lake Michigan and it looked more like a day in June than April. Loving that May outlook Tom posted for SMI. Flowering trees are out this year while we still have some of the early blooming flowers that got delayed by the cold start this month. That's rare in itself and a nice pay-back for all the snow we suffered through. Larger trees just now starting to leaf out, but the hardier ones still aren't quite there. They don't usually get leafs until 1st half of May anyways so we're not that far off of average if you ask me.

I really hope the latest CFSv2 run is off its rocker...it's weeklies keep extending the cooling trend out farther each day it seems as we head into May!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201605.gif

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Looks like we will be seeing our first potential "high risk" day tomorrow. Things are coming together for a significant outbreak of severe weather and possibly long tracked tornadoes. 

 

SPC AC 250555

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1255 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

 

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

 

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST

NEB...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK...

 

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN

NEB...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...MUCH OF OK AND NORTH TX...

 

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND

SOUTHERN PLAINS...

 

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB TO THE MIDDLE RIO

GRANDE VALLEY...

 

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO

VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

 

...SUMMARY...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE

NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN

ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE

MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

 

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

 

...FORECAST PARAMETERS CONTINUE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL

SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN

PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...

 

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT WITH

BRINGING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE

AFTERNOON/EVENING ON TUESDAY. A 60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET

WILL OVERSPREAD TX INTO OK/KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG DCVA.

THIS WILL BE ALIGNED WITH A SURFACE DRYLINE STRETCHING S/SW FROM

ROUGHLY CNTRL KS...WRN OK AND W-CNTRL TX BY 00Z/WED. THERE IS STILL

SOME VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW

POSITION...BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER

WITH THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT STRETCHING W-E NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE

KS BORDER AT 00Z. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS

THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AS FAR

NORTH AS S-CNTRL/SE NEB. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL

LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON...AND STRONG HEATING NEAR

THE DRYLINE SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY LATE

AFTERNOON.

 

CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH

SOUTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS OK INTO N TX. DEPENDING ON YOUR FAVORED

MODEL DEPICTION...A BI-MODAL COVERAGE PATTERN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE

INITIAL VORT MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS N-CNTRL OK INTO KS AND

S-CNTRL NEB. ANOTHER VORT MAX WILL EJECT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS

CNTRL/NRN TX LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A RELATIVE MIN

SOMEWHERE...BUT WHERE THIS IS REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

REGARDLESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSE

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN

THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT WHERE FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE

MAXIMIZED. STRONG /POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/ TORNADOES...VERY LARGE

/PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH

ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AFOREMENTIONED

COVERAGE CONCERNS WILL PRECLUDE A HIGH RISK AT THIS TIME.

 

DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO

AN MCS OR BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO. WHILE A TORNADO

THREAT WILL LINGER NEAR THE WARM FRONT...A TRANSITION TOWARD MAINLY

A LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING-WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH EASTWARD

EXTENT OVERNIGHT. ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX...STRONGER FORCING WILL ARRIVE

DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SUPERCELLS MAY

DEVELOP LATER THAN FURTHER NORTH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A NIGHTTIME

TORNADO RISK BEFORE STORMS POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THEY APPROACH

NORTHEAST TX. ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL

BE POSSIBLE.

Looks like most members in NE are in for a wild ride!  From Holdrege, east into E NE look prime...lot's of atmospheric energy in place.

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/1-8.gif

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I really hope the latest CFSv2 run is off its rocker...it's weeklies keep extending the cooling trend out farther each day it seems as we head into May!

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201605.gif

 

 

That cold pool keeps growing and growing. I've been watching it as well.

 

Today should be the first day to hit 80° this year/only time this month. Sitting at 77° currently.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That's not a good combination is you want sustained warmth in the GL's.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch hoisted for N IL/S WI...

 

 

 

Severe Thunderstorm WatchSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-073-089-091-093-095-097-099-103-
111-123-131-141-155-161-175-177-195-197-201-260300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0103.160425T1915Z-160426T0300Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOONE BUREAU CARROLL
COOK DE KALB DUPAGE
GRUNDY HENRY KANE
KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX
LAKE LA SALLE LEE
MARSHALL MCHENRY MERCER
OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND
STARK STEPHENSON WHITESIDE
WILL WINNEBAGO
$



Hazardous Weather OutlookHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1047 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
261600-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
1047 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016 /1147 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE:
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS EARLY AS
3 PM...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IS BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM.

DISCUSSION:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY FROM WISCONSIN SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY LATE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW OF THESE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
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Got a few thundery downpours, but that was it here. Some decent sized hail reported in Mundelein tonight.

EURO was NE, E wind hell here.

 

 

Next 10 day rainfall.

post-7-0-67406900-1461633868_thumb.png

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Temps just fell almost 20° here in about 30 minutes. Now comes the typical April March weather.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Here in my yard I just missed the large hail that fell from the storms late yesterday afternoon. Here are some of the storm reports from yesterday (mostly hail)

 

Kent County

4 miles N of Walker, Kent County.
Hail m1.00 inch, reported by broadcast media.

4 miles N of Walker, Kent County.
Hail m1.00 inch, reported by broadcast media.

3 miles W of Comstock Park, Kent County.
Hail m1.00 inch, reported by trained spotter.

2 miles S of Belmont, Kent County.
Hail e0.75 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.

4 miles ESE of Comstock par, Kent County.
Hail m0.50 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.

2 miles S of Comstock Park, Kent County.
Hail m0.50 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.

2 miles WSW of Comstock par, Kent County.
Hail m0.25 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.

1 miles ENE of Lowell, Kent County.
Hail m0.25 inch, reported by Emergency Mngr.

Cascade, Kent County.
Hail m0.25 inch, reported by public.

 

The reports From Comstock Park would be for the most part less then 3 miles from my house, I did not receive any hail here but did record 1.32" of rain and of course as in other areas there was a lot of lightning for a couple of hours. After yesterdays temperatures in the low 80's it is much cooler today and I now have a current reading of only 46° here at my house.

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43° here right now with a brisk NE wind.

 

4km NAM has upper 30s and rain tonight. Yuck.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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36*F and rain for this morning's commute. Oh well, at least there wasn't any flakes. Progress of sorts in this see-saw April of contrasts..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Getting a cold rain here at my house. I do not see any snow mixed in with this rain. There have been some (not real reliable) reposts of snow mixing in, cannot say for sure that the is none however, as the temp here at my house only 35° This is one cold late April day. The high for today in all likely hood has already been made (50°) 

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@ WestMJim

 

GRR has related graphic today. I may (hopefully) be done with it in Marshall, but per their last line, you are still in play for a few more weeks!

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ WestMJim

 

GRR has related graphic today. I may (hopefully) be done with it in Marshall, but per their last line, you are still in play for a few more weeks!

 

attachicon.gif2016-04-28 GRR Last SN graphic.PNG

 

Minneapolis had some snow this morning. I would think southern MI would be done...

 

It's miserable weather today that's for sure.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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It's not much fun when we get multiple rainy, chilly days in a row this time of year.  At least today it is a few degrees warmer and the wind is not howling like yesterday.  Saturday will be another nasty day.  It may or may not linger into Sunday, but that should be it for nastiness for a while.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Today was slightly worse than yesterday. There was no hint of sun today. Tomorrow isn't look all that great either. Forecast is 40s through Sunday.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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