Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 MKE is usually bullish, don't get why they aren't this time around unless they really believe the GFS. UKMET/NAM/SREF/GGEM/ECMWF all would have at least 5+ if not more in their area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 MKE is usually bullish, don't get why they aren't this time around unless they really believe the GFS. UKMET/NAM/SREF/GGEM/ECMWF all would have at least 5+ if not more in their area. Ya, they are playing it very conservative. Maybe they don't want to appear to jump the gun. They're wording suggests that no way this can go to Winter Storm Warning criteria...we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Noticed in about the last month that MKE's discussions overall have gone way down hill not sure if it's because they blew a couple of forecasts or what, but most of the time now they aren't worth the read Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah, usually they would be putting up a WSW calling for 6+. GFS has been trending wetter each run, the globals are showing a stronger, slower system. There's no reason to be saying 3-5 is the highest this thing can produce with the latest trends over the past day. If they would have said 3-5, with potentially higher amounts if the slower/stronger solution happens, I can see that, but to say 3-5 is the max even if it gets stronger is stupid and a set up for failure by them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 Noticed in about the last month that MKE's discussions overall have gone way down hill not sure if it's because they blew a couple of forecasts or what, but most of the time now they aren't worth the read I think ever since those failed Lake Effect Snow Warning calls earlier, they have been way careful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 whats nam and gfs snowfall maps looking like? DMX only going with 2-4 for northern iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 MKE is usually bullish, don't get why they aren't this time around unless they really believe the GFS. UKMET/NAM/SREF/GGEM/ECMWF all would have at least 5+ if not more in their area. I don't think they believe the GFS, I think they just don't want to get too bullish since seasonal trends have been nickel and diming for the most part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 15, 2014 Report Share Posted February 15, 2014 If there are to be any future shifts, expect them to be south. Strongest jet stream winds are to the left of the trough, indicating a stronger + further south track would be preferred over north. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/18/US/namUS_250_spd_048.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 If it does have to snow...again, I hope it's between rush hours and not during them. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Man Geo's, I have never heard you been so down and out about a snowstorm. What's going on with that? Sounds like your sick of snow already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Man Geo's, I have never heard you been so down and out about a snowstorm. What's going on with that? Sounds like your sick of snow already. Well, I work 22 miles away from home for one. I have some plans afterwards in Milwaukee. Not sure if they'll happen though. It can snow, but I hope the intense stuff is over by about 4pm.I've had too many close calls with stupid drivers I guess in the last month. My all wheel drive has really "helped" this winter. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ah gotcha...there are still some drivers that can't seem to handle driving in the snow. It is aggravating I must say. I don't mind driving in the snow at all...I actually enjoy it and make the best of it. Monday is President's Day so hopefully the roads will be less crowded due to it being a national holiday and I'm sure lots of folks are off of work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's just difficult for some to drive in snow, and it's not necessarily all their fault. I went out tonight, and we only got a little over an inch today, and I was going literally 5 mph going into the turning lane and there was a car in front of me. When I went for a complete stop a good 20 or so behind the car, my car just kept on sliding. Came a couple inches from hitting the back. I took my mom's SVU because I have a little cavalier. Don't know why the roads were so bad; it was only a inch. But it can be tricky to drive in all snow, unless you have 4x4, which helps so much it's unbeliaveble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ah gotcha...there are still some drivers that can't seem to handle driving in the snow. It is aggravating I must say. I don't mind driving in the snow at all...I actually enjoy it and make the best of it. Monday is President's Day so hopefully the roads will be less crowded due to it being a national holiday and I'm sure lots of folks are off of work. That's what I'm hoping for. Actually looking forward to seeing a snowstorm from where I work. Every storm has been on the weekend or at night or during the time off on Christmas. lol. (just started in November)Only had short bursts of snow and light snow during work hours. As of now I'll got with 4" for Monday. I hope it's wet enough to cling to the trees. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 DTX calling for 4-6 inches Monday night-Tues AM for entire Detroit CWA. No chance of mixing even to the border and ratios 10:1-12:1. Nice surprise, my snow is getting that grey color at the moment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Well, I work 22 miles away from home for one. I have some plans afterwards in Milwaukee. Not sure if they'll happen though. It can snow, but I hope the intense stuff is over by about 4pm.I've had too many close calls with stupid drivers I guess in the last month. My all wheel drive has really "helped" this winter. I work 83 miles away from home through the middle of the SWMI snowbelt. Man-up! (or call me crazy - your choice) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Lol^. It's really the other drivers I worry about. 0z NAM Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Winter Storm Watches up in MSP and northern portions of La Crosse, WI... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 pin pont dropped from 2-4 to 1-3 on Monday. MKE smoking crack or on to something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 00z RGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 LOT with 3-5" in my grid. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 I have 3-5 for the LSE county to my west I have 3-5 south and 3-5 north but 1-3 here good night all wonder what tomorrow will bring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 I got 3-7" in my grid...interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 00z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Hearing UKMET is juicy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'll take a guess & say LOT goes ahead & issues an advisory after 12z runs tomorrow afternoon. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 NAM with a 1012mb low passing through C IN. 3-4 inches here on this run. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah 3-5 iches seems good bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 WWA here for 2-4". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah 3-5 iches seems good bet.Yep. This likely won't be a big event or anything like the UKMET or GEM were showing, but it'll be nice to add to the yearly snow total. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Im forecast to receive near 6inches from this storm, IF NOT MORE. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 RGEM is a solid hit for the Chicago crew yet http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/593_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z GFS a bit better for MKE/ORD. 4-6 for S. WI and 2-4 for Chicago is a good call right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 A general 3-6" is an added bonus in my book since a couple days ago N IL was being forecasted to be a mix/rain situation. I'll take whatever snow falls as a Gift from Mother Nature. We are probably going to melt around 6" or so this week anyway so this snow event should help maintain a deep enough snow cover and hopefully add more this weekend as has been the case this winter...when it warms, snow and cold follows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 hows the euro looking? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 hows the euro looking?0.3-0.4 QPF for most of S WI and N IL. 0.5 QPF right over Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 Looks wetter than 0z runs for our forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z Euro...showing a "thump" snow scenario for N IL. Snow may be falling heavily over NE IL for evening commute. Edit: Euro also showing -8C 850's when its starts snow heavily. This may generate very rapid snowfall rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 16, 2014 Report Share Posted February 16, 2014 12Z Euro Total QPF:ORD: 0.45MKE: 0.37 Taking a look at the snow ratios chart 0.45 with temps between 20 and 27 degrees would indicate almost 7 inches of snow. Euro seems to be the most aggressive model QPF wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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