MKEstorm Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Feeling good some ares will over perform with this one. There gonna be some impressive hourly rates tom and nice to see the more neg tilt on this. Neg tilt would be nice! Haven't had much of that this winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 WGN RAP 3.5 for MDY and 3.8 ORD. Not bad. I will take anything around 4 inches or more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 WGN RAP 3.5 for MDY and 3.8 ORD. Not bad. I will take anything around 4 inches or more. Are there greater totals north? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Are there greater totals north? Not quite sure. Just heard of it from someone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just measured a 12" snow depth, would be nice to get another 5-6" on top of it by tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 00Z GFS is going right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Just measured a 12" snow depth, would be nice to get another 5-6" on top of it by tomorrow. Tammy model showing general 5-8 inches. Heavy stuff wont make it til 1pm here til 7pm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Tammy Fox just showed widespread 6-8" totals for N IL...I would expect LOT issue WSW overnight tonight. This storm will be hitting during the evening commute and with very heavy snowfall rates. Our region is in the "left front" exit region of the jet where maximum lift is generated and there may be vertical build to the cloud tops that creates Thundersnow out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 By the looks of this, you guys in Chicago are going to do a lot better than us in Eastern Iowa. You have a much better chance of seeing 6+ than we do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS with 6-8 for N. IL and nearly all of S/W/N WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS looks to be coming in a little bit wetter looking at snowfall maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 00z GFS looking great...keeps on getting better and better...looks like ORD has a good shot to hit 70" for the season by tomorrow Dominick! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS/NAM all with 6+ for pretty much all of us and SREF are quite a bit wetter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 00z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Have a felling LOT will go warning for 5-8 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 lol posted on his fb 45 min ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 What the heck is Microcast smoking???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 anyone got the GFS snow map? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 MKE Update: .UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT FLURRIES OVER THE FAR EAST AREDISSIPATING AS THE DELTA T AND FLOW BECOME A LITTLE LESSFAVORABLE. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM ARESPREADING IN QUICKLY AND WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON THE TEMP DROP.TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.RADAR IS SHOWING ACTIVITY REACHING THE MS RIVER ALREADY THISEVENING...BUT THIS IS HIGH BASED STUFF WITH THE MID LEVEL WARMADVECTION. SURFACE OBS HAVEN/T YET PINGED ANY SNOW...SO NOT TOOWORRIED OF AN EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED START. AS THE DEEPER WARMADVECTION ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THE LIGHT SNOWSPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 3 AM. THISINITIAL SNOW SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWASSOCIATED WITH THE BETTER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVING BY MIDMORNING.THE NEW NAM HAS ARRIVED AND ISN/T OFFERING ANY SURPRISES. ITSTOTAL QPF IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS...BETWEEN/.25-.30/ BUT THAT STILL PUTS US AROUND THE 4 INCH MARK. SO DON/TSEE ANY REASON FOR ANY EARLY ADJUSTMENTS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OFTHE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 GB update: UPDATE...ISSUED AT 836 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2014LATEST WRF MODEL SUGGESTS A SOLID 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECASTAREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.SINCE THERE IS NO CLEAR INDICATION THAT A CERTAIN AREA WOULD RECEIVEWIDESPREAD WARNING CRITERIA SNOW...WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ALOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO SEE IF AN UPGRADEWOULD BE WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE AT OR NEARTHE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE SOMEAS THICKER CLOUDS ARRIVE AND WINDS INCREASE. SNOW SHOULD MOVE INTOCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARDS 12Z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Tom, i really appreciate the info mate...looking solid for Heavy snow over a 6 hour period adding up to 4-6 with lollipops anywhere in SEMI really..will be fun to see this one pan out..no dud no dud haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hrw-nmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Izzi over at LOT mentioning possible thundersnow. I saw someone else say something about Izzi not being surprised to see double digit totals. But I don't see that in the discussion. Maybe said it on Facebook? Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Here's Rap run thru only 22z rather scary, juicy, and snowy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Izzi over at LOT mentioning possible thundersnow. I saw someone else say something about Izzi not being surprised to see double digit totals. But I don't see that in the discussion. Maybe said it on Facebook?Yeah he said it on facebook. But he's feeling really excited for the thundersnow potential we may be in for a new surprise if this system turns convective. Thinking WSW is all but a given after his strong wording of crippling 2"+/hr totals possible 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Cook now under WSW! 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Cook now under WSW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PMCST THIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNINGTO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND TAPER OFF BY EARLYTHIS EVENING.* ACCUMULATION...POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED FOR SOME LOCATIONS TORECEIVE TOTALS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTSWILL BE UPDATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.* PRIMARY IMPACT...SNOW WILL FALL HEAVILY...WITH SNOWFALL RATESPOSSIBLY REACHING TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR FOR ATIME...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE SNOWCOVERED ROADS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES...MAKING TRAVELVERY HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE REGION. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Calling for excess of 6 inches, with updated "exact" totals being done in the next couple hours. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wonder if MKE will follow suit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like this is going to be a good one, maybe even a double digit even for some areas. Won't get super excited until it starts but the potential is definitely there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Via LOT:THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A FAIRLY HIGHPOTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATEDTHUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS AND EVENSOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW HAVE QPF VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF ATLEAST LOW END WARNING SNOWFALL ACROSS A LARGE PORTIOON OF THEAREA...AND SHOULD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SNOWFALL TOTALSCOULD BE EVEN HIGHER. GIVEN THE CHANGE IN THINKING HAVE OPTED TOUPDATE WSW AND GET THE WARNING OUT NOW TO GIVE A COUPLE EXTRAHOURS HEADS UP FOR OUR USERS. MORE FINE TUNED SNOWFALL TOTALS WILLBE PUT OUT WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 This storm has turned into a pleasant surprise from a few days ago. Who would have thought N IL would get snow, let alone a WSW and the potential for Thundersnow! It just goes to show you how volatile the weather pattern can get in a matter of a couple days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 This storm has turned into a pleasant surprise from a few days ago. Who would have thought N IL would get snow, let alone a WSW and the potential for Thundersnow! It just goes to show you how volatile the weather pattern can get in a matter of a couple days.Exactly! I'm hoping mother nature will turn the pattern around next weekend to all snow, all that rain and flooding will really do some damage around here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looking at the radar, lots of convection already showing up in NE/W IA and heading east... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 I see that Tom and if that contain that for a good 5-6 hrs we def be looking at solid warning type snows out of this. It's gonna be a messy commute coming home tom eve. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Latest RAP with .5-.6 QPF across S. WI. 14:1 ratios would be 7 inches. I highly doubt they upgrade though considering just a day or so ago they said no way would they get more than 3-5 even if it strengthens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 17, 2014 Report Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wonder if ORD can possibly crack 70 now I feel a bit more confident but we need to make up 8 inches with this which has shot if convection over performers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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