October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Nope. Perhaps the EPS won't have such a sharply tilted block.

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Quite accurate. The ECMWF so often dashes our hopes and stomps on our cold, snowy dreams. EPS could be better or best yet though as we've seen many times.

[snow_wizard]

Wow.  Still a lot to be settled with the progression of that second trough.  Yuge potential though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Quite accurate. The ECMWF so often dashes our hopes and stomps on our cold, snowy dreams. EPS could be better or best yet though as we've seen many times.

This run may still get better at the very end.

[RentonHill]

Euro vs GEM and Euro vs GFS at Day9. GFS odd one out (duh)

[RentonHill]

As @SouthHillFrosty knows very well the 00z Euro is POS. 12z will bring it all back. Or was it the other way around i cant remember whatever

[snow_wizard]

Cold still very close on this run, and in fact is cold over us.

[Gradient Keeper]

Pattern ends up evolving mega wet and mild?

[snow_wizard]

That is one odd progression on this run.  The low level stuff is still pretty cold.

[North_County]

1 hour ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Super noob question but to read these maps, dark blues, purples, and pinks mean lower pressure that causes rain and snow while reds and oranges are higher pressures that cause hotter, sunnier weather?

I remember asking this during the summer but wasn't sure if the same principles apply during colder months. Might take me years to learn the weather jargon and use these to predict forecasts, I could barely read GFS/Euro maps as it stands and it's only because of the colors, lol. 

I've been a member of this board every winter for like 7 or 8 years now. I'm still learning how to read them. I know just enough to be dangerously wrong.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 Mega turd....

6z GFS in 2 hours 38 minutes
12z GFS in 8 hours 38 minutes
12z ECMWF in 10 hours 48 minutes

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Pattern ends up evolving mega wet and mild?

Could end up cold still.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10 Mega turd....

6z GFS in 2 hours 38 minutes
12z GFS in 8 hours 38 minutes
12z ECMWF in 10 hours 48 minutes

I kind of disagree.

[snow_wizard]

500mb isn't everything.

[Gradient Keeper]

Now I want to see how the EPS(ECMWF Ensembles) look Day 6+. Can't possibly be that bad. Right. Lol

[Kolk1604]

Alright time to compare. EPS Day 1 

[Kolk1604]

Day 2 

[snow_wizard]

I just don't think that run is as bad as it appears at first blush.  The 12z will be different anyway.  just about guaranteed in this case.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Now I want to see how the EPS(ECMWF Ensembles) look Day 6+. Can't possibly be that bad. Right. Lol

I'm betting it will be way different.

[Kolk1604]

Day 3 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

500mb isn't everything.

How cold do things end up getting on this run?

[Kolk1604]

Day 4 

[Kolk1604]

Yeah, let's just call this a bad run. The PNA jumps to neutral at the end. The EPO is still tanked though 

[Kolk1604]

Day 5 

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 

[Gradient Keeper]

I jinxed it with my Think Cold and SNOW! and highly irritated King EURO.

[Kolk1604]

Day 7... Rob? 

[Kolk1604]

Day 8 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 8 

I think that's Day 9'er. Not bad. Block still very tilted which would be okay if it were a bit further east ----->

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

I think that's Day 9'er. Not bad. Block still very tilted which would be okay if it were a bit further east ----->

Lol whoops I actually skipped Day 7...  

[RentonHill]

I think we’re ok. Means improved vs 12z

[Kolk1604]

Day 10 

[Gradient Keeper]

Sure glad the Op was an outlier then. We're back in business!

[Kolk1604]

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

The GEM is stupid wet 

Probably the wettest run I've ever seen for up here. 12-14" in the next ten days. Even 1/2-1/3 of that would still be wet.

[Cold Snap]

I’m starting to have a really good feeling about this November cold. We haven’t had a good November arctic blast since 2014 so I feel like we have to be due. I haven’t seen snow in November since 2017 and based on past Novembers with snow I saw snow in November 2006, 2010, 2014, and 2017 so based off that I feel like we have to be due for at least some snow in November.

[Jbolin]

It's not even November yet and you guys are freaking out over one bad Op run?

Ugghh, the next time I have to come in here, I'm crackin' skulls.

[Sonny Summers]

Judah Cohen

 

@judah47

 

 

Due to personal reasons I will be away for work for this entire week so there will be no blog(but plenty of dogs). I will return the week of November 7th.