October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Oh??

Very strange model run that features extreme blocking throughout.  Could be a fun season coming up.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Spokane still running a whooping +7.2 on temps for October.  good grief

Wow!  SEA is going to miss their warmest October by a hair.  I think today will put them below 2014.  If not today certainly tomorrow.  Close call.  For MBY an ok average min for the month took me solidly out of 2014 range.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

You need to understand that model-riding, like gambling, isn't really about results. It's about the thrill of anticipation. It's about chasing the high. Everyone knows that any given model run showing snow is unlikely to pan out, just as any spin of the roulette wheel is unlikely to come up on your number. The excitement itself is the goal. The next model run to get excited about is never more than 6 hours away, and hey, if the snow and cold it depicts happen to come true, that's just icing on the cake!

This is probably 70% to 80% true.  There are times it becomes pretty obvious something good is going to happen.

[snow_wizard]

GEFS is purdy on this run.  The improvement continues.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Oh, I'm definitely still on the "normal fall rain" model-riding train...

But you probably knew that.

Like most here, I am mostly focused on the weather in my own backyard.

[Cascadia_Wx]

These mild nights to end the month are really going to drive home the record warm October. Looks like my call for our months of record warm and dry weather being “answered” by a merely slightly milder and drier than average last ten days of October was on point.

November will probably end up just slightly warmer than average as well. Which will be a nice change of pace after the record smashing warmth of the three months prior.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I have to say the suspense is killing me on how this is going to unfold.  Potential for something pretty special for so early.  Interestingly November cold snaps aren't terribly common in La Nina seasons.

This same thing was being said about late October just a few weeks ago.

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

These mild nights to end the month are really going to drive home the record warm October. Looks like my call for our months of record warm and dry weather being “answered” by a merely slightly milder and drier than average last ten days of October was on point.

November will probably end up just slightly warmer than average as well. Which will be a nice change of pace after the record smashing warmth of the three months prior.

[Meatyorologist]

Let's see a few predictions shall we?

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Let's see a few predictions shall we?

January

[Tyler Mode]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEMMY

That little low that spins up could be quite a wind producer, or snow north of it...

[Tyler Mode]

45 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

These mild nights to end the month are really going to drive home the record warm October. Looks like my call for our months of record warm and dry weather being “answered” by a merely slightly milder and drier than average last ten days of October was on point.

November will probably end up just slightly warmer than average as well. Which will be a nice change of pace after the record smashing warmth of the three months prior.

No joke.  Been between 50 and 57 the last couple of days.  Barely below normal highs but wildly above normal lows.  My average is in the upper 30s now and it was 50 this morning.

[Deweydog]

PDX couldn’t quite compare to 2014’s seasonal delinquency when October couldn’t manage a low below 47. 2022’s max/min of 44 will be a distant second. Mind you, mid November colded back in 2014…

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

No joke.  Been between 50 and 57 the last couple of days.  Barely below normal highs but wildly above normal lows.  My average is in the upper 30s now and it was 50 this morning.

The lows have been quite a bit cooler up here.  Just a little above normal for monthly average while the average high was insanely high.

[snow_wizard]

59 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

These mild nights to end the month are really going to drive home the record warm October. Looks like my call for our months of record warm and dry weather being “answered” by a merely slightly milder and drier than average last ten days of October was on point.

November will probably end up just slightly warmer than average as well. Which will be a nice change of pace after the record smashing warmth of the three months prior.

You have seen the models right?  Not saying a warm November is impossible, but it's pretty bold to flat out say it will be warm.

[snow_wizard]

59 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This same thing was being said about late October just a few weeks ago.

It ended up ok.  We got some pretty chilly stuff up here and SEA has been minus for the average the past 9 or 10 days.  They closed Chinook Pass the second earliest on record BTW.

[RentonHill]

Euro Day 7 or 8 idk

[snow_wizard]

I like where the ECMWF is headed.  Way better than the 0z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have seen the models right?  Not saying a warm November is impossible, but it's pretty bold to flat out say it will be warm.

If you lived down here you'd feel differently.

[snow_wizard]

The operational ECMWF still falls short, but it has been in big disagreement with the other models and ensembles.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If you lived down here you'd feel differently.

I still think the Nov - Feb period will be cold for all of us.  It remains to be seen what part of the cold season the big cold is focused though.

[Meatyorologist]

The main problem with AGW is that there is so much extra water vapor in the air just latently mixed in with the atmosphere. H2O gas is an incredible insulator, and its effects are particularly noticeable at night. SW flow at any time of year means record smashing lows.

Even our cold snaps are blunted. Much fewer opportunities to drop to/below 15F, due to the increased humidity, or persistent cloudcover, also caused by increased humidity.

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

PDX couldn’t quite compare to 2014’s seasonal delinquency when October couldn’t manage a low below 47. 2022’s max/min of 44 will be a distant second. Mind you, mid November colded back in 2014…

2014 is the true GOAT for the region, as far as warm Octobers.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The main problem with AGW is that there is so much extra water vapor in the air just latently mixed in with the atmosphere. H2O gas is an incredible insulator, and its effects are particularly noticeable at night. SW flow at any time of year means record smashing lows.

Even our cold snaps are blunted. Much fewer opportunities to drop to/below 15F, due to the increased humidity, or persistent cloudcover, also caused by increased humidity.

Enhanced by increased UHI at stations like SEA and PDX.

[Kolk1604]

The GEM is the new King. Lock it in! 

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The main problem with AGW is that there is so much extra water vapor in the air just latently mixed in with the atmosphere. H2O gas is an incredible insulator, and its effects are particularly noticeable at night. SW flow at any time of year means record smashing lows.

Even our cold snaps are blunted. Much fewer opportunities to drop to/below 15F, due to the increased humidity, or persistent cloudcover, also caused by increased humidity.

I remember my dad telling me when I was little that the clouds act like a big, comfy blanket. I thought he was full of sh*t.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Up to 1.63" and counting for the day. Still raining hard. Forecast is for around 2.75".

[Omegaraptor]

31 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

The GEM is the new King. Lock it in! 

“Screw Tonasket” -the weather gods

[Cascadia_Wx]

39 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The main problem with AGW is that there is so much extra water vapor in the air just latently mixed in with the atmosphere. H2O gas is an incredible insulator, and its effects are particularly noticeable at night. SW flow at any time of year means record smashing lows.

Even our cold snaps are blunted. Much fewer opportunities to drop to/below 15F, due to the increased humidity, or persistent cloudcover, also caused by increased humidity.

This is all true but increased clouds also pretty effectively block incoming solar energy which complicates things. I think there is still a lot of scientific debate on the relationship between cloud cover and AGW.

[Cascadia_Wx]

48 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If you lived down here you'd feel differently.

Even SEA will miss its warmest October on record by just a hair. Both of you guys routinely overstate the north south temp gradient in the region, just in inverse ways.

[Skagit Weather]

21 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Up to 1.63" and counting for the day. Still raining hard. Forecast is for around 2.75".

0.38" on the day here. No idea how much is actually going to fall because forecasts are remarkably different. They range the gamut from about 0.8" total to almost 2.5" by the end of tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

Yes, Costco is on board.

[T-Town]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yes, Costco is on board.

Pretty sweet that it’s a combo. Not just some run of the mill shovel. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

18 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yes, Costco is on board.

Prefect for those “special” PNW winter uses.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The lows have been quite a bit cooler up here.  Just a little above normal for monthly average while the average high was insanely high.

 

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If you lived down here you'd feel differently.

I looked it up just for fun. EUG’s average low has been over five degrees colder than SEA’s for October so far (43.7 vs 49.2)

Now carry on with your respective narratives  

[Front Ranger]

46 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Even SEA will miss its warmest October on record by just a hair. Both of you guys routinely overstate the north south temp gradient in the region, just in inverse ways.

On the other hand, no record at EUG.

[Front Ranger]

Helluva Olympic rain shadow right now.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Helluva Olympic rain shadow right now.

Expecting to see rain for Seahawks game?  

[Sonny Summers]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

The GEM is the new King. Lock it in! 

It's gorgeous, but it isn't going to happen.

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Expecting to see rain for Seahawks game?  

I knew there would be a rain shadow, but this is one of the larger and more distinct ones you'll see.