October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

2:20 AM near West Gresham

Temp: 53.8 with a drippy, light rain falling. .04" for the day so far and 3.59" for the month now. So much for that decent weekend we were supposed to have.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Day 1-5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

850s Western Canada (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8  Ohhh....

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Another GFS Op run with a very strong 1050mb+ Canadian high leading to big time Fraser winds, and ripping Gorge winds too!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

The coldest ensembles yet for the Gorge and Columbia Basin. Nice chunk of chilly members.

[Terreboner]

4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Shorts and t-shirt weather in Denver.

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

11" of snow in Vancouver BC!

[snow_wizard]

The models are sure struggling with the details of the upcoming block.  All runs show very cold air in BC and a very strong surface high, however.

[Doinko]

4 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Another GFS Op run with a very strong 1050mb+ Canadian high leading to big time Fraser winds, and ripping Gorge winds too!

Strong gorge winds will be fun!

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Christmas comes early.

[Phishy Wx]

It's coming into view.....

 

 

[LowerGarfield]

11 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Still aways out but I can get behind this. Currently 54 degrees and overcast.

[LowerGarfield]

10 hours ago, Doinko said:

 

Clown Range is fun but gotta understand it's too far out to get your hopes up.

[snow_wizard]

So far so good on the 12z GFS.  At least as far as Weatherbell has updated.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

Clown Range is fun but gotta understand it's too far out to get your hopes up.

It's likely some kind of a cold snap is going to happen.  Just based on the PNA and EPO forecasts that would be pretty hard to escape.  As always the all important details are as clear as mud.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z still digs out over the ocean too much, but less than the 0z and 6z as the second trough unfolds.

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Still aways out but I can get behind this. Currently 54 degrees and overcast.

Sounds like July 3 was.

[snow_wizard]

Damn that is an impressive blob of cold air!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

Sounds like July 3 was.

That was an impressive cold shot.

[MossMan]

Was a blustery SE wind at the lake this morning but dry. Raining a bit back here at home. .03” so far on the day, 3.27” for the month, 37.88” for the year. 

[snow_wizard]

Very interesting.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very interesting.

 

Shows snow in the Sound with temps around 32 and mid-upper 20s in SW BC and NW WA, 925mb temps around -2 to -5 as well.

[snow_wizard]

I have to say the suspense is killing me on how this is going to unfold.  Potential for something pretty special for so early.  Interestingly November cold snaps aren't terribly common in La Nina seasons.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have to say the suspense is killing me on how this is going to unfold.  Potential for something pretty special for so early.  Interestingly November cold snaps aren't terribly common in La Nina seasons.

Assume we get to this point - whats best case evolution for the pattern from there forward? Avoid a ridge bridge, another shot of cold air makes its way around the ridge and the existing trough kind of sucks back up northwards and the two pieces of energy meet over the PNW while the ridge resets in the right spot?

[RentonHill]

GEMMY

[snow_wizard]

Really cold run for Seattle.  Afternoon temps in the low to mid 30s on day 9.  Impressive!

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Assume we get to this point - whats best case evolution for the pattern from there forward? Avoid a ridge bridge, another shot of cold air makes its way around the ridge and the existing trough kind of sucks back up northwards and the two pieces of energy meet over the PNW while the ridge resets in the right spot?

That's about right.  Impossible situation to have any kind of confidence.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEMMY

Impressive evolution.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Assume we get to this point - whats best case evolution for the pattern from there forward? Avoid a ridge bridge, another shot of cold air makes its way around the ridge and the existing trough kind of sucks back up northwards and the two pieces of energy meet over the PNW while the ridge resets in the right spot?

That or that lob of arctic air pinches off over Tim's house and forms a nice displaced polar vortex and new glaciers in North Bend.  either one 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

You need to understand that model-riding, like gambling, isn't really about results. It's about the thrill of anticipation. It's about chasing the high. Everyone knows that any given model run showing snow is unlikely to pan out, just as any spin of the roulette wheel is unlikely to come up on your number. The excitement itself is the goal. The next model run to get excited about is never more than 6 hours away, and hey, if the snow and cold it depicts happen to come true, that's just icing on the cake!

We need a roulette emoji

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Nice to be back model riding for snow instead of model riding for normal fall rain.

[RentonHill]

Oh??

[Phishy Wx]

Spokane still running a whooping +7.2 on temps for October.  good grief

[Deweydog]

Could be a wet/dry Veteran’s Day…

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Oh??

nvm this sucks