October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Phishy Wx]

first backdoor action of the season

 

ohhh la la

[Gradient Keeper]

850s in BC -32c!

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

850s in BC -32c!

Just slide it down the coast that's all I ask. 

[RentonHill]

C & EWA dream shot

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Freaking awesome model run and it's not even Halloween! Wait until 00z Halloween night! Woooooooooooo!

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 4 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[RentonHill]

GEM is on board

[Gradient Keeper]

Forget a front loaded Winter, how about a middle loaded Fall? something like that. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 7.5 (Past 4 runs) Notch further east and a bit more amplified.

[AlTahoe]

28 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Jesus Nov 2010 for me but 2 weeks earlier. 

Better tune up the snow blower and put the Blizzacks on!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 8 (Past 4 runs)

[Phishy Wx]

Dang the clown is pretty snowy

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Dang the clown is pretty snowy

Is it? I rarely look beyond Day 10.

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

[snow_wizard]

This run pretty much gets there.  A little more tweaking and this could get pretty real.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Is it? I rarely look beyond Day 10.

00z ECMWF in 26 minutes

 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS spits out a solid week of max temps in the low to mid 40s for SEA.  Solidly cold for this early.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS is 200+ miles further east with the block/arctic trough than the GFS Op.

[Gradient Keeper]

Could this REALLY be a possibility before the middle of November? I mean why not. Why not continue the extreme and highly anomalous events.

[snow_wizard]

The analogs have been amazing for a while now.  1956, 1971, and 1990 have been in the top for over a week now.  Also seeing some 1984, 1985, 2006, and 2008 at times.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Could this REALLY be a possibility before the middle of November? I mean why not. Why not continue the extreme and highly anomalous events.

The GEM sets up perfectly.  Dead on hit.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The GEM sets up perfectly.  Dead on hit.

We deserve a real snowy November and December. 

[snow_wizard]

Hard to not like the model trends right now.  Everything shows us getting at least moderately cold.  This could well put 1936 back on the table as an analog again.

[Kolk1604]

The GEM is stupid wet 

[snow_wizard]

Currently 54 in Seattle and only 43 here.  Pretty sharp gradient.

[HuskyMaestro]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 close! Heck of a trough though!

Super noob question but to read these maps, dark blues, purples, and pinks mean lower pressure that causes rain and snow while reds and oranges are higher pressures that cause hotter, sunnier weather?

I remember asking this during the summer but wasn't sure if the same principles apply during colder months. Might take me years to learn the weather jargon and use these to predict forecasts, I could barely read GFS/Euro maps as it stands and it's only because of the colors, lol. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

The GEM is stupid wet 

I think that will be hard to pull off with so much high pressure over the NE Pacific.  There could be a brief window for a baroclinic zone however.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Super noob question but to read these maps, dark blues, purples, and pinks mean lower pressure that causes rain and snow while reds and oranges are higher pressures that cause hotter, sunnier weather?

I remember asking this during the summer but wasn't sure if the same principles apply during colder months. Might take me years to learn the weather jargon and use these to predict forecasts, I could barely read GFS/Euro maps as it stands and it's only because of the colors, lol. 

Way more to it than that.  We can be in the dark blue and have very little precip, although that would probably be very cold

Just pay close attention to the comments and how they relate to the maps and you will catch on.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

Super noob question but to read these maps, dark blues, purples, and pinks mean lower pressure that causes rain and snow while reds and oranges are higher pressures that cause hotter, sunnier weather?

I remember asking this during the summer but wasn't sure if the same principles apply during colder months. Might take me years to learn the weather jargon and use these to predict forecasts, I could barely read GFS/Euro maps as it stands and it's only because of the colors, lol. 

The colors represent height anomalies at 500mb, which is generally the gold standard as it represents the “middle” of the atmosphere. Doesn’t tell the whole story about surface temps though, particularly during the cold season. There are many situations where low heights can be very mild in our climate and extremely high heights can be very cold at the surface. Clear as mud!!!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

For whatever reason on Pivotal the ECMWF hi-res isn't running, so the past 4 runs would be the past 4 days of 00z runs. I can still do the ECMWF, GEM, GFS model comparison though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately since the ECMWF hi-res maps on Pivotal aren't running, so that means I can't post the 10 Day Rainfall or Snowfall maps too. Lame.

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

--SATURDAY--NIGHT--MODEL--RIDING--

Begins in 1 hour 3 minutes (8:35 PM)

 

BREAKING NEWS: Exciting announcement below! ....

....

But Wait!
There's MORE!
 

In light of the rather substantial improvements seen on the 18z GEFS(GFS Ensembles), the likelihood of a big, fat, meaty, beefy Alaskan block developing around Day 5.5 to 6 with solid model agreement among the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF, a cold trough Day 7+ sliding south through British Columbia, and all of that potentially potential potential ahead, we have decided to *officially* tonight begin to

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[snow_wizard]

It appears the ECMWF might be heading toward less digging out over the ocean with the second trough.  Just an educated guess at this point in the run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7  Well, that's new.