October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Hap pee birthday!!!

It's that time of year where we need to start putting Dewey into "selective" time-outs.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

68F and not a cloud in the sky. Beautiful, cool late August day!

Halloween in 2 days.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm! 18z GEFS ... Another notch closer to being cold!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Most ECMWF ensemble members now show snow for YVR. GFS, not quite a majority.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A lengthy power outage isn’t exactly how I envisioned my birthday going but here we are.

Powers out? Wait. WHAT? It's your Birthday? Are we sure this isn't some grand scheme and plan of yours to acquire gifts and presents, perhaps November snow? Well, just in case, Happy Birthday buddy! Seriously.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

SEA, because I know it will be asked for.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Aaaand, PDX.

[gusky]

And checking in on the other side of the state. 

[gusky]

Just now, gusky said:

And checking in on the other side of the state. 

HUGE differences between GFS and ECMWF... Euro must be showing for higher elevation. Weird.

[TacomaWx]

Feels pretty bizarre to be talking about lowland snow potential…albeit still not a major chance less than 2 weeks after we were in the 80s and even low 90s. 

[TacomaWx]

57/45 today in Tacoma. Had some sunshine this morning but high clouds are increasing. 

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Feels pretty bizarre to be talking about lowland snow potential…albeit still not a major chance less than 2 weeks after we were in the 80s and even low 90s. 

Feels great. I've been dreaming about model watching for snow since summer ended.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Feels pretty bizarre to be talking about lowland snow potential…albeit still not a major chance less than 2 weeks after we were in the 80s and even low 90s. 

Reminds me a bit of my teenage years when I lived in the Rockies.

And, given 850 mbar temps like this, snow certainly seems possible in the range.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS some chilly members showing up.

Seattle, Bellingham

[Terreboner]

Cold November, warm December, cold January, normal to cold Feb/March...is what I'm seeing.  But then again the weather models change inside of 36 hours so who knows. 

[Cold Snap]

Gorgeous sunset!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Actually, EUG set a new record daily high of 69º today. This was under 850mb temps that were about normal.

Hell yeah we did. 69F here too!! Nice!!

[MossMan]

Raspberries are still going! 
Finally finished blowing just in time for the wind to blow again tomorrow!

And I mowed.

Nice day! 

[Terreboner]

Ya, I still have strawberries ripening but they are dying soon for sure.  Might pick up our first "skiff" of snow Tuesday night-ish.

[Gradient Keeper]

--SATURDAY--NIGHT--MODEL--RIDING--

Begins in 1 hour 3 minutes (8:35 PM)

 

BREAKING NEWS: Exciting announcement below! ....

....

But Wait!
There's MORE!
 

In light of the rather substantial improvements seen on the 18z GEFS(GFS Ensembles), the likelihood of a big, fat, meaty, beefy Alaskan block developing around Day 5.5 to 6 with solid model agreement among the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF, a cold trough Day 7+ sliding south through British Columbia, and all of that potentially potential potential ahead, we have decided to *officially* tonight begin to

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

[The Blob]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Still harvesting tomatoes and cucumbers... pulled up about half the potatoes and onions.    And my wife is planting some of next spring's flowers at the same time.   

 

I should probably check my garden this weekend, I'm sure I have more tomatoes and the pie pumpkin should be good to pick.

[TacomaWx]

2 hours ago, Terreboner said:

Cold November, warm December, cold January, normal to cold Feb/March...is what I'm seeing.  But then again the weather models change inside of 36 hours so who knows. 

Thanks josh 

[Deweydog]

Not sure if it was posted while I was away at band camp, but Oregon is ALL IN…

https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/9-news/561371-449524-forecasters-prepare-to-be-stuck-at-home-this-winter?wallit_nosession=1

[RentonHill]

18 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Thanks josh 

Josh is Andrew?

[smerfylicious]

Well...if the frost cometh at least I can pull my 20 or so romas off to ripen in the window. Next year will be a good planting season and lessons learned mean good things abound.

I just want the mountains to overperform in November and a killer ski season to happen. Looks like this is in the cards.

[Gradient Keeper]

8:23 PM Alright, heading off. Be back around 11:30 PM.

[Gradient Keeper]

8:24 PM Just kidding. 00z GFS in 11 minutes!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

8:27 PM Radar Update

Currently off the Washington Coast it is 'wetter than a poodle in a car wash'(c)2003

[Sonny Summers]

20 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

8:24 PM Just kidding. 00z GFS in 11 minutes!!!!

I can't wait.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs) cold trough may be digging out too(to the west) far to the north. We'll see how Day 7.5+ ends up.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5, yep looking that way.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 close! Heck of a trough though!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.5 to 9 modified arctic air pouring into the Columbia Basin!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er