October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Cloud]

18z not backing down? lol

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

She’s coming in lower. Going to better for the PS if the precip shield goes far enough north 

looks too far south.  This run is a good bit warmer than 12z.  Someone get Drunkle his even booster shot stat.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

looks too far south.  This run is a good bit warmer than 12z.  Someone get Drunkle his even booster shot stat.

 

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

I stand corrected

[SouthHillFrosty]

It shows snow in the air for Seattle for over 12 hours straight….. LFG 

[Snownerd3000]

I'm headed to Seabrook the 11th.  What are my odds of seeing snow

[Doinko]

This run has a lot of cold air in SW BC, more than the 12z but it doesn't make it as far south

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Doinko said:

This run has a lot of cold air in SW BC, more than the 12z but it doesn't make it as far south

I was bout to say the same thing. Gonna need the right low position to suck some cold air down as it tracks into landfall. 

[Sonny Summers]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

18z not backing down? lol

The Druncle has a great forecast team:José, Evan, Jack, Jim, and Cpt Morgan.

[Cloud]

Drunkle is about to go ballistic in the LR isn't he? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh okay...

[Jbolin]

23 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Still on track 

Northeasterly flow with some northeasterly flow.

Get my drift? 

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

The Druncle has a great forecast team:José, Evan, Jack, Jim, and Cpt Morgan.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is going to come in very very wet. 

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

It shows snow in the air for Seattle for over 12 hours straight….. LFG 

That's 6.5" in the heart of DT seattle 

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

The Druncle has a great forecast team:José, Evan, Jack, Jim, and Cpt Morgan.

Thanks Captain Obvious 

[gusky]

Why do I keep checking in only for the GFS to be even crazier?

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Requiem]

No clue about snow or cold but that's a real soaker of a pattern advertised on most models in the mid-long range 

[Cloud]

Get some sleep in the meantime... we all might need it. 

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That escalated waaaaay quick. Again folks, show the model with the most snow.

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

That escalated waaaaay quick. Again folks, show the model with the most snow.

 

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

everyone wins

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane starting to Honk Snow and wind

 

Thursday to Monday: The period starts out quiet and cold, then 
rapid changes develop with the potential for significant 
precipitation and strong and potentially damaging winds Friday 
into Saturday, follow by the potential the first significant snow 
for the lower elevations Sunday into next Monday. As it is many 
days out there remains uncertainty regarding the details and 
precise impacts, yet computer model have been trying to converge 
on a solution over the past few days. Thursday is largely dry with
colder than normal temperatures. The next system starts to nose 
into the Cascades with light snow chances Thursday afternoon, 
while clouds increase eastward. 

Then Thursday night to Saturday the stronger system moves into 
the region. The leading warm front and atmospheric river, with 
PWATs averaging around 200% of normal, noses in between Thursday 
night and Friday. This will bring a good chance for precipitation 
throughout all but the deeper Columbia Basin. 

Through early Friday colder air in place at the start of this 
period will bring a chance of snow or a rain/snow mix in most 
areas except for deeper Columbia Basin. Light snow accumulations 
are possible over the eastern third of WA and ID and near the 
Cascades. Confidence in snow accumulations on roads is limited as 
road temperature forecasts suggest it may be too mild to 
accumulate effectively. However we will have to monitor portions 
of eastern WA and ID east of US-195, low elevations and passes. 
Some light accumulations are also expected near the Cascade crest 
too. 

Then Friday afternoon into Friday night milder air comes, pushing
snow levels to between 5-7kft. So this portion of the system will
largely see rain and high elevation, largely above pass level. 
Precipitation amounts could be 2-3 inches near the Cascade crest 
and an inch or so toward the ID Panhandle, while the eastern third
of WA and immediate lee of the Cascades could see a quarter to a 
half inch, while the deeper basin should see less than a tenth.

Going into Saturday the cold front passage starts to drop snow 
levels again. By mid-morning snow levels average between 1-2.5kft 
in the Cascades through Okanogan Highlands and 2.5-4.5kft 
elsewhere. By afternoon they average between 1.5-3kft, lowest 
around the Cascades through northern mountains. This means 
precipitation changing to snow around the passes, with the 
potential for moderate to heavy accumulations. Highlights may be 
necessary around the Cascades and ID Panhandle, though accumulates
rates starts to decline going into Sunday morning. The Blues and 
Camas Prairie will also need to monitored. 

Going into Saturday night and Sunday, continuing into next 
Monday, snow levels drop further. They between average of 0.5-2Kft
in the overnight/morning hours and 1-3Kft in the afternoon. The 
area will be in the post-frontal unstable upper trough, with 
embedded shortwave rotating through. By this time frame model 
agreement in details wanes, but the potential for precipitation 
remains in the high chance to low-end likely category. The 
mountains and southeast CWA have the highest risk. With those 
aforementioned snow levels there will be the potential for some 
snow accumulations in most areas, except the deeper basin and 
deeper L-C Valley. There is some risk there could even be some 
moderate accumulations in the low elevation, including the 
Spokane/CdA area and Palouse. However road temperatures still 
remain a question. Road temperatures forecast definitely show a 
cooling trend into next week, but it may be that overnight/morning
hours will have the better potential for it sticking to road 
surfaces, as opposed to the warmer afternoon hours. It definitely 
needs monitoring as the new work week could start with snow 
impacts.

...Potential Significant Wind Event late Friday and Saturday...

The other features of this system that may be have the most 
impact is the winds. Models continue to agree that the system will
bring windy condition, from Friday afternoon through Saturday. 
Right now the peak wind time looks to be Friday evening to early 
Saturday, but timing could change. A low level jet between 60-65 
mph is still depicted ahead of and with the cold front. Areas from
the Upper Columbia Basin to Palouse and Spokane/CdA still look 
like they will be most impacted. Ensemble forecasts suggest gusts 
over 40 mph are becoming more likely, but some show average speeds
higher. There have been only slight changes in the GEFS over the 
past several runs in that regard, but the EC Ensemble has showed 
the average wind gust potential pushing closer to 50 mph. A few 
outliers suggest gusts closer to those in the LLJ (i.e. over 60 
mph) but confidence in that severity it limited. Either way it 
looks windy. Such gusts are not expected the entire event. Right 
now Friday evening looks like the peak wind time, but as mentioned
that could change depending on precise cold front passage. 
Diurnally this is not the most favored time of day, due to a lack 
of thermal mixing. However mechanical mixing with the front could 
be enough. Stay tuned as this could be an event with damaging 
winds and power outages. Confidence will increase toward this 
being an impact or not as we get closer. /Solveig
 

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Thats the location I wanted to see Columbia River FTW.

[RentonHill]

EPS back on Wetterzentral. Takes several hours now but it finally finished.

[SouthHillFrosty]

This is Kuchera and not 10:1

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

everyone wins

[SouthHillFrosty]

Way warmer this run but more precip. The mountains will win no matter what 

[Snownerd3000]

Not even done and 18z Drunkle is off its rocker.  10:1 but IDGAF 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Way warmer this run but more precip. The mountains will win no matter what 

Buried neck deep in wet snow 

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is kind of at OMG levels today.  Even the ECMWF spits out snow and well below normal temps.

[Snownerd3000]

I could see the typical favored locations like kitsap, north peninsula and anywhere with gaps could actually do well in this setup

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Way warmer this run but more precip. The mountains will win no matter what 

I wouldn't say way warmer.  I saw a frame that shows 925mb temps of -6.

[RentonHill]

18z GEFS is a little better on the ridge so far vs 12z. Means little until we see that from the EPS probably 

[Phishy Wx]

lol a seasons worth of snow in Spokane in 2 weeks (in NOV)

Druncle needs to hit rehab 

 

[snow_wizard]

I will say I've never seen the models so snowy this early in the season before.  Pretty crazy.

[smerfylicious]

I guess we ice age now