October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Notice that block getting hung up further Nd further. I've seen this play before... I find an Arctic blast fairly unlikely at this point, at least south of Skagit county.

Really hoping the arctic air makes it down into Oregon! It's only early November though so maybe we'll see a historic arctic airmass in January bring cold all the way to southern OR! 

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, JSnowlin said:

Ya so you could just, ya know, post the hyperlink next time. 

I did the TL:DR, which I rarely do, but this is too much for me!

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Doinko said:

Really hoping the arctic air makes it down into Oregon! It's only early November though so maybe we'll see a historic arctic airmass in January bring cold all the way to southern OR! 

I'm sure the mountains will block it from reaching there, only for it to be launched toward me!

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Seems like Burns, OR had their second coldest November low of all time with -15 in 2015 (three times), after -17 in 1955. They also got down to -18 in January 2016

I actually forgot about the Nov 2015 cold snap.  It was pretty cold here, but nothing too crazy.

[Doinko]

18z GFS is slightly colder than the mean in the LR but now a lot of members are showing up even colder (I'm just going to ignore the warmer ones though!)

[snow_wizard]

Being real, I would be happy to see the Arctic front sag this far south for just a day or two.  This early in the season that would be awesome.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like the 18z shows between 50-60” of snow IMBY. This is gonna be incredible. 

[snow_wizard]

BTW....the benchmark for something this early is Late October 1935.   There were freezing max temps in the Western Lowlands with that so it can happen.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like the 18z shows between 50-60” of snow. This is gonna be incredible. 

Up there I think you are going to have some snow.  Very good chance.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS shows the EPO getting really low next week, so these fantastically wet solutions are certainly suspect.  A lot to be sorted out still.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[AlTahoe]

23 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

This one for last January would have gotten me through some rough times if only it had verified better.

lol it showed 116" for the Sierra and we got 0". It didn't snow again till April. 

[Jbolin]

All the board regulars later tonight when the ECMWF pulls a massive 180°

[Iceresistance]

Just now, JSnowlin said:

All the board regulars later tonight when the ECMWF pulls a massive 180°

Me: Of course it did! It did that just to tease us!

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

With a Nina the cold may be on hold in the East a number of times this season.  Is there ever a season where they admit things just aren't lined up for a cold East?

[Jbolin]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

[HuskyMaestro]

Just changed my windshield wipers for rain/snow and cleaned the glass with rain repellent. It’s not much but it’s my way of getting hyped for an active colder November

[Anti Marine Layer]

Trick or treat. Smell my feet.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With a Nina the cold may be on hold in the East a number of times this season.  Is there ever a season where they admit things just aren't lined up for a cold East?

Its always funny to see east coast and west coast weather weenies getting angry when the other side is doing the same thing they are doing.   Sort of like our political environment right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Soggy, AND White? Hmmm....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

21 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

All the board regulars later tonight when the ECMWF pulls a massive 180°

Even now it's only a few degrees warmer. Not really that devastating.

[TT-SEA]

Completey dry here since about noon... looks like the same for most of King County.    A Halloween blessing for us with rain in all directions while its dry and relatively mild here.    Perfect weather for trick-or-treating and will be heading out soon.  

[Skagit Weather]

25 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

lol it showed 116" for the Sierra and we got 0". It didn't snow again till April. 

Hmmm...it showed 24" here and we got 17". I'd take that ratio on what the current runs are showing.

[GHweatherChris]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain just got here. A damp evening in silverton. 

[HuskyMaestro]

Was cleaning my freezer a bit and I found some snow I decided to take in 2013 and 2017! Maybe I really should’ve been a met. I was a high school sophomore and then a college freshman respectively at the time. Maybe bringing these out manifests the EURO into some  

[Cold Snap]

The 18z Euro is also showing some lowland snow tomorrow night in the same spot as the GFS but nothing near the GFS totals.

[TacomaWx]

15 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

The 18z Euro is also showing some lowland snow tomorrow night in the same spot as the GFS but nothing near the GFS totals.

That’s interesting…probably the same surface temps the gfs was showing upper 30s roughly. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

26 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

The 18z Euro is also showing some lowland snow tomorrow night in the same spot as the GFS but nothing near the GFS totals.

The Euro is caving 

[Dave]

Unfortunate timing for the trick or treaters this year. It's been dry for the last couple of days until now. 

[Cold Snap]

30 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

That’s interesting…probably the same surface temps the gfs was showing upper 30s roughly. 

Yeah it’s showing those temps so I doubt any snowflakes will fall.

[Gradient Keeper]

No trick-or-treaters here. Moderate to heavy rain continues to redevelop along a stalled frontal boundary over PDX metro especially near/east of I-5.

[RentonHill]

$$$$$

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

$$$$$

Admittedly I wasn't expecting to see that. Trough should dig right down the OR coast.

00z GFS in 1 hour 33 minutes
I am not sure if I'll be available to post Day 1-10, etc. This run could either be really wet, or insanely wet with a significant atmospheric river. There is still a small chance that cold, arctic air may spill southward into northern WA, Columbia Basin and the Gorge. We shall see...

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

$$$$$

Oh wait, that's the control run aka wishcasting run. Never mind.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 42 minutes

[Iceresistance]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Admittedly I wasn't expecting to see that. Trough should dig right down the OR coast.

00z GFS in 1 hour 33 minutes
I am not sure if I'll be available to post Day 1-10, etc. This run could either be really wet, or insanely wet with a significant atmospheric river. There is still a small chance that cold, arctic air may spill southward into northern WA, Columbia Basin and the Gorge. We shall see...

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

#NoRidgeNovember

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Oh wait, that's the control run aka wishcasting run. Never mind.

00z ECMWF in 3 hours 42 minutes

That is not the Euro-Control, that is the mean Euro-Ensembles! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Trick or treating in silverton 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Trick or treating in silverton 

IMG_9177.MOV

We sent the kiddo out with the umbrella. I told her a few days ago to be ready.

[SnarkyGoblin]

7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

That is not the Euro-Control, that is the mean Euro-Ensembles! 

No, it's the control [c]