October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Doinko]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

 

Thank you! Wow...

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

KGEG?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Randyc321 said:

Here in reality....47 right now here on Bainbridge, .22 for the day, but it fell before daylight.  Actually feels a bit chilly outside.

It’s been a wet day in this part of reality too. Well over an inch on the day. Looks like PDX should crack 3” for the month.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[TacomaWx]

Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s been a wet day in this part of reality too. Well over an inch on the day. Looks like PDX should crack 3” for the month.

I just passed 5" for the month.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

KGEG?

What city is that?

[snow_wizard]

The run to run change on the ensemble is quite impressive.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. 

so basically a winter version of an unprecedented summer heatwave no one said was possible, until it happened? 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. 

First time for everything

I'm pretty sure last summer went against climo. 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

What city is that?

Spokane

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

so basically a winter version of an unprecedented summer heatwave no one said was possible, until it happened? 

 

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

First time for everything

I'm pretty sure last summer went against climo. 

Much much rarer to pull off anomalous cold then anomalous warmth nowadays. 

[kokaneekidz]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. 

Although if 108 degrees could take place , then so could this.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Spokane

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

 

Much much rarer to pull off anomalous cold then anomalous warmth nowadays. 

[Jbolin]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

King Euro gunna be like the GFS is on ACID.....

 

 

 

......and I want SOME

I want some DMT 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

HOLY SHIITT

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. 

I think we have gone against climo a few times the past couple of years.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

Got dayum... 

[gusky]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

HOLY SHIITT

I’m sorry. Does that say

 

-19?!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, kokaneekidz said:

Although if 108 degrees could take place , then so could this.

We would need a February 1989 blast temps or colder out of this to even come close to how anomalous that 108 was. 

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Dude got into the ((((((Deemsters)))))))

divine moments of truth

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[snow_wizard]

This would be a few days earlier than 1955 which would be quite impressive, although October 1935 was very extreme and a couple of weeks earlier.

[Meatyorologist]

Block actually makes a bit of sense on the 00z. Might this actually happen? The details may come together.

[kokaneekidz]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We would need a February 1989 blast temps or colder out of this to even come close to how anomalous that 108 was. 

November 85 was a never forgettable occasion.  Yet the Temps were just garden variety 20s

[Doinko]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Block actually makes a bit of sense on the 00z. Might this actually happen? The details may come together.

The 00z brings record cold temps to the area but 850mb temps don't actually get that cold in Portland. Just very cold low levels and deep snowcover I guess.

[ShawniganLake]

Temps have fallen through the 40s here. 

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

First time for everything

I'm pretty sure last summer went against climo. 

Our climate has changed. The old rules don’t apply. 

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. 

November cold history is DOMINATED by either backdoor setups or quasi-progressive clippers. This would be somewhat off the charts just from a 500mb perspective. Late October 2003 was another longwave behemoth but it was a much more traditional retrogression pattern.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we have gone against climo a few times the past couple of years.

90% of time it’s warmer than normal. 

[Phishy Wx]

don't wanna get too confident yet but dang

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

90% of time it’s warmer than normal. 

Extremes usually go both ways. Would make sense to get the ball bounce cold this year. 

[MossMan]

Things I might need to do this weekend. 

[Cloud]

Just now, MossMan said:

Things I might need to do this weekend. 

From jetski to John Deere.. this guy gets it!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Omegaraptor]

Wasn't just about everyone skeptical of the idea of lowland snow in mid-April when the models were showing it, and then possibly the most impressive April cold snap/snow event since the ultra-blocky 1930s unfolded?

Nothing is off the table.

[Meatyorologist]

I like where the Euro has this. A bit concerned about the NW lobe bombing out a bit too far west, but we'll see.

[kokaneekidz]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

November cold history is DOMINATED by either backdoor setups or quasi-progressive clippers. This would be somewhat off the charts just from a 500mb perspective. Late October 2003 was another longwave behemoth but it was a much more traditional retrogression pattern.

With a lack of moisture. Just lip cracking dry a** weather

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. 

That graphic comes from the wrcc site.  Lots of great stats in there!  FWIW 1971 had 2 inches on Oct. 27th and 1.4 inches on Nov 11, 1955 and 4.6 inches on Nov 17, also 1955.

https://wrcc.dri.edu/Climsum.html