October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[kokaneekidz]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Things I might need to do this weekend. 

Lookin great Clark!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Meatyorologist]

Block is a BIG step east on this run. Holy crap, it might do it.

[TacomaWx]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

November cold history is DOMINATED by either backdoor setups or quasi-progressive clippers. This would be somewhat off the charts just from a 500mb perspective. Late October 2003 was another longwave behemoth but it was a much more traditional retrogression pattern.

Always nice to hear your honest analysis on things. I remember when I joined a few years ago that was a rare thing lol

[Phishy Wx]

King Euro is keeping me up past my bedtime.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Meatyorologist]

Nah it's gonna bomb out lol

[snow_wizard]

Favorable changes in the surface high complex even before day 5 on the 0z ECMWF.

[Omegaraptor]

Also if this verifies. Given how persistent the patterns have been this year for the NW I highly doubt this will be some "one hit wonder and then back to business as usual" thing. I feel like this could very well be the direction the general pattern is headed in for quite a while.

CPC 8-14 top analog is November 1978. Nov-Jan 1978-79 was one of the true epic stretches of cold for the NW.

[Deweydog]

Any last words for October?

[kokaneekidz]

Excited to see the name given to the november blog

[kokaneekidz]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Nah it's gonna bomb out lol

Reverse psychology. You must be a Seahawks fan

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Block looks much healthier, but arctic trough may be digging out too far to the north. We'll see how Day 5.5 to 7 turns out.

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

I can believe it might get cold. And I can believe it might snow. (But not the snow depths shown, sorry.) What I am having a really hard time with is those temperature spreads. Highs of around freezing and lows in the single digits? I don't remember ever seeing such a thing around Puget Sound. Not to say it can't happen, but the last single digit lows I can remember had high temps in the high teens. That discrepancy is what is making me feel like this is crazy. Like yes, it can get to single digits here but it doesn't get that cold and also that "warm" in the same day. Makes the whole thing suspect for me despite how much I may want snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 hmmmm!

[Gradient Keeper]

Diggggggggggggggg! King EURO is really going to try to pull this off tonight!

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I can believe it might get cold. And I can believe it might snow. (But not the snow depths shown, sorry.) What I am having a really hard time with is those temperature spreads. Highs of around freezing and lows in the single digits? I don't remember ever seeing such a thing around Puget Sound. Not to say it can't happen, but the last single digit lows I can remember had high temps in the high teens. That discrepancy is what is making me feel like this is crazy. Like yes, it can get to single digits here but it doesn't get that cold and also that "warm" in the same day. Makes the whole thing suspect for me despite how much I may want snow.

The upper levels are what we want to watch right now. The 2m stuff isn't real accurate this far out. It'll sort itself out later.

[Kolk1604]

Just before Day 6

[Requiem]

I will scream, cry, and throw things (not necessarily in that order) if the latest GFS doesn't verify exactly 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Digggggggggggggggg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Really good improvements with the EURO tonight.

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Things I might need to do this weekend. 

[TacomaWx]

Geez now the euros showing snow at hour 132 wtf. Temps are suspect tho

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Digggggggggggggggg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Really good improvements with the EURO tonight.

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

Block looks South enough where it won't get undercut so easy.

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Any last words for October?

So long and thanks for all the Twix 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EC is caving. Holy shitt.

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Diggggggggggggggg! King EURO is really going to try to pull this off tonight!

ECMWF coming for the GFS 

[Omegaraptor]

PAYBACK FOR JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, AND OCTOBER.

[Requiem]

looks better

[westiztehbest]

38 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

o snap

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Definite improvements. Not on the wacky GFS level yet.

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Christensen87]

And to think it was 90° and smoky just a couple of weeks ago. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Going somewhere!

[kokaneekidz]

3 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

And to think it was 90° and smoky just a couple of weeks ago. 

A HAARP seasonal closure could be our culprit .  

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

ECMWF coming for the GFS 

GET IN LOSER, we're going blizzarding 

[Doinko]

Just a bit too warm but still nice

 

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

PAYBACK FOR JULY, AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, AND AUGTOBER.

FYP

[snow_wizard]

20 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I can believe it might get cold. And I can believe it might snow. (But not the snow depths shown, sorry.) What I am having a really hard time with is those temperature spreads. Highs of around freezing and lows in the single digits? I don't remember ever seeing such a thing around Puget Sound. Not to say it can't happen, but the last single digit lows I can remember had high temps in the high teens. That discrepancy is what is making me feel like this is crazy. Like yes, it can get to single digits here but it doesn't get that cold and also that "warm" in the same day. Makes the whole thing suspect for me despite how much I may want snow.

It dropped to 6 at SEA in Nov 1955...not that much later than this possible event.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er