October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1955 redux?!

 

[TT-SEA]

Starting to think a November 1955/1985 type situation might actually be possible.    Its been a year of extremes already.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All this fun because that one guy decided to build a home in Arizona. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Clown range of course, but jaw dropping temperature anomalies.  

[ShawniganLake]

Sub 500 dam into southern BC in early November.  

[Slushy Inch]

That east wind pressure gradient

[Phishy Wx]

it's coming

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sub 500 dam into southern BC in early November.  

That doesn’t seem possible 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

New GFS

For the PNW closeup, it doesn't go past hour 240

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just your average Eastern Pacific Basin November hurricane...

[TacomaWx]

Low of 52 this morning…54 now. We’ve picked up 0.34” since midnight and 1.86” MTD. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh yay.

[SnarkyGoblin]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All this fun because that one guy decided to build a home in Arizona. 

Your funniest post.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just your average Eastern Pacific Basin November hurricane...

warm finger

[Sonny Summers]

November will likely end up with above average precipitation. I'm going out on a limb here.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Based on recent years, with every GFS run forecasting cold and snow, the more likely it is to really be picking up on a trend that is going to happen.

Also based on recent years, the GFS is waaaay overstating the amount of cold and snow for the west-side lowlands.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Based on recent years, with every GFS run forecasting cold and snow, the more likely it is to really be picking up on a trend that is going to happen.

Also based on recent years, the GFS is waaaay overstating the amount of cold and snow for the west-side lowlands..

[Sonny Summers]

One of our analogs is 2000-01. It had a very cold November. A cold and snowy November wouldn't be a stretch.

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oof Eugene.

all the weed haze is keeping the surface temps too warm

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Based on recent years, with every GFS run forecasting cold and snow, the more likely it is to really be picking up on a trend that is going to happen.

Also based on recent years, the GFS is waaaay overstating the amount of cold and snow for the west-side lowlands..

It’ll probably be a great mountain snow pattern…but I’d still be surprised if we had any real accumulating snows below 500’ and any sub 40 highs for most people. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Sonny Summers said:

One of our analogs is 2000-01. It had a very cold November. A cold and snowy November wouldn't be a stretch.

That winter totally sucked.

[Guest administrator]

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, Kayla said:

2014 was decent for its longevity. 7 consecutive days with lows below zero peaking with a 9/-12 day on the 12th.

Of course 1955 is in a league of its own for first half of November cold. That one peaked with a -9/-26 day on the 15th.

1955 didn't hold a candle to 2014 here, guess it didn't penetrate south as well.

Coldest day with 1955 was 26/-4, in 2014 it was 5/-10.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, administrator said:

lol thats a Nov 85 redux

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter totally sucked.

Feb 2001 had a nice snowstorm for much of the Puget Sound at least.

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol thats a Nov 85 redux

The GFS is throwing out a 6F low forecast for SEA on November 14th. That only beats the record low by 3 degrees from...1985. Of course it would beat the record low for almost any other day of the first half of the month by 15-20 degrees.

[Jbolin]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oof Eugene.

Haaaaaa - haaaaaaa, eat s***

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Lolz wtf... November is the new February...

Nice. Looks to be around 4 feet here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not to be a buzz kill, but the ensembles are running. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

On the other hand, the total precip map looks great. I don't think I've ever seen a double-digit total precip model map before. I'd be ecstatic if it verified to even 50%.

That won't verify for the lowlands. 

[Sonny Summers]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter totally sucked.

Overall it was lame, but November was cold.

[Snownerd3000]

Lock it in

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not to be a buzz kill, but the ensembles are running. 

And the Gem looks wet but not white. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

9 minutes ago, administrator said:

How do you downvote the GFS?

[Front Ranger]

The GEM is just a tad warmer.

[Guest administrator]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

And the Gem looks wet but not white. 

...and the climate doesn't support the outcomes shown today. We are not seeing anything more than some days in the low 40s with some rain followed by a frosty night or two. I probably should limit map posting to only real meteorologists.

[Jbolin]

I change my username to JSnowlin (Rob too) and all this wacky s*** starts hitting the models.

Nah, not ironic, buuuuuut it could end up being a jagged little pill to swallow.

Bring on Mr. Plow

Please give us both proper credit.

P.S., I also stated in post (can't find it now) stating KSEA would see its first snowfall before Thanksgiving. (So, yea...double credit mofo's)

[Sonny Summers]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Starting to think a November 1955/1985 type situation might actually be possible.    Its been a year of extremes already.

Every pattern is extreme and it locks in for a long period of time. It's possible this year.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, JSnowlin said:

I change my username to JSnowlin (Rob too) and all this wacky s*** starts hitting the models.

Nah, not ironic, buuuuuut it could end up being a jagged little pill to swallow.

Bring on Mr. Plow

Please give us both proper credit.

P.S., I also stated in post (can't find it now) stating Ksea would see its first snowfall before Thanksgiving. (So, yea...double credit mofo's)

[Sonny Summers]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The GEM is just a tad warmer.

A dose of reality, huh?