October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Doinko]

Full GFS run. Consistent troughing until the end with a massive ridge in Alaska in clown range.
 

[MossMan]

Just two weeks ago…

Anyway…
Now…Up to 1.11” for the day, and 4.35” over the last 9 days. 
And possible snow coming up! 

Edited October 31, 2022 by MossMan

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, Randyc321 said:

BTW, on which part of the island did you live? I am a little bit less than a half a mile North of the ferry dock.  Wing Point/Hawley Cove area.

I lived right in Winslow, on lower Grow Ave.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

zomg!

 

53 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

LAWDY

Overrunning event! ❄

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF in 14 minutes

C'mon King EURO, grant us thy mere peasants a cold model run, bestow upon us snow and icy winds.
 

In English, how about you stop being a douche and get the job done. We want early snow. Great. Thanks.

Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rain has resumed. Up to 2.54" for the day and 6.65" for the month.

[selkirks]

Just give us the precip...mountains need SNOW!  

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just two weeks ago…

Anyway…
Now…Up to 1.11” for the day, and 4.35” over the last 9 days. 
And possible snow coming up! 

I’m sure if the snow forecast busts for the rest of us you’ll still manage to get 6” of snow somehow. 

[Kolk1604]

14 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Brian_in_Leavenworth can you see if the new GFS upgrade shows anything significantly different this run? 

lol it's free on weathermodles.com (I just found that out) 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

@Brian_in_Leavenworth can you see if the new GFS upgrade shows anything significantly different this run? 

So the maps aren't extensive, but I did get some hour 240 maps.  One is afternoon temps, I think 5pm since we are still on DST, and the other is 72 hour snowfall.  It doesn't show beyond day 10.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol it's free on weathermodles.com (I just found that out) 

 

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol it's free on weathermodles.com (I just found that out) 

That's the current GFS 16.2. New one will be 16.3

[Jbolin]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

lol it's free on weathermodles.com (I just found that out) 

Oh, absolutely lock this s*** in 

[gusky]

GFS ensemble definitely puts the deterministic back in its place

[Jbolin]

Just now, gusky said:

GFS ensemble definitely puts the deterministic back in its place

Booooooo, (goddamn single run insanity) 

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

That's the current GFS 16.2. New one will be 16.3

Yeah I was kinda questioning that after I posted it lol 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah I was kinda questioning that after I posted it lol 

 

It's there but hard to find.   Go to model maps, then model labs and it's there. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

It's there but hard to find.   Go to model maps, then model labs and it's there. 

OK thank you I was going crazy in Animator. This 15 bucks for the next month better be worth it!!

[gusky]

Does weatherbell use GFS16?

[RentonHill]

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Looks like the newer model is colder. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks like the newer model is colder. 

Are there two versions now?

[gusky]

D**n, even GEFS mean is on board rn

[snow_wizard]

Pretty good run tonight.  A 33/27 day for SEA and a snowstorm.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

38 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

GEFS Day 8 

Arctic air starting to penetrate the border 

Gorgeous Alaskan Block. I'm thinking future runs will further push the Arctic air down over us. Fun times ahead!

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are there two versions now?

V16.2 which is the current one right? and 16.3.3 which is about to be released. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are there two versions now?

There will be an updated GFS coming on board in November 29th.  Here are a couple of screenshots from the NWS file that I downloaded. 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, gusky said:

D**n, even GEFS mean is on board rn

850s are considerably colder on this run vs the 18z.  This might be for real.  This would be an all time top 5 event for this early if it happens.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Gorgeous Alaskan Block. I'm thinking future runs will further push the Arctic air down over us. Fun times ahead!

The amazing thing is the scope of the cold air mass being shown.  Gigantic for so early in the season.

[snow_wizard]

The GEFS is also all in on the cold air mass being quite continental.

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

850s are considerably colder on this run vs the 18z.  This might be for real.  This would be an all time top 5 event for this early if it happens.

Hold your horses, I'll eat 4 ghost peppers at once if it snows more than 2 inches on the 8th/9th. Feel free to hold me to that

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS - Moses Lake. It does not get anymore impressive than this for early November.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z GEFS - Moses Lake. It does not get anymore impressive than this for early November.

I hope that cold air gets funneled through the Gorge for strong east wind and temps in the 20s!

[TacomaWx]

13 minutes ago, gusky said:

Hold your horses, I'll eat 4 ghost peppers at once if it snows more than 2 inches on the 8th/9th. Feel free to hold me to that

I’m sure you won’t have to worry about it, @GHweatherChris and his raccoon squad will be here to pull the rug soon. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Surface temps - Moses Lake. Look at all of those ensembles members well below the mean! VERY cold Columbia Basin!

[Gradient Keeper]

ECMWF hi-res is running unlike last night. I can post both the model trends and model comparisons tonight if you want?

[snow_wizard]

Absolute insane analogs from tonight's GFS run.  A couple from the Nov 1985 cold wave.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m close enough to the Coast Mountains to benefit some from upsloping. Would estimate my area gets around 55" in a typical year. North Vancouver, right up against the mountains gets 80”. YVR airport only gets around 47" because they are further south yet and benefit less from upsloping.

I didn't realize even YVR was so much wetter than BLI and places in the sound. I thought it was still squarely in the Vancouver Island rain shadow although as you mention, close to the mountains you get strong upsloping.

You inspired me to look at Squamish and it blew me away to learn that it receives close to 90" a year. Now that's some hefty rainfall!