October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Jbolin]

32 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks like the newer model is colder. 

Go with the model that ALWAYS shows the most cold/snow. 

[ShawniganLake]

That GFS run lays down 40-50” of snow at my house before November 10th.   never gonna happen. 

[Jbolin]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That GFS run lays down 40-50” of snow at my house before November 10th.   never gonna happen. 

"IF, IF" it does, the entire NE U.S. is gonna need to be put on suicide watch.

Bed checks every 10 mins.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

That GFS run lays down 40-50” of snow at my house before November 10th.   never gonna happen. 

Id be legitimately surprised if there was any accumulating snowfall below 500’ outside of some very favored locations like the C-zone or any highs below 39-41 degrees. 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

Is it a snow day if the kids are off?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh....

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Oh....

Suspense...

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Suspense...

Exactly.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs) Nope. King EURO was a real dick tonight. Always a chance the EPS deviates after Day 6 and holds the block allowing the cold trough/arctic air to dig more favorably.

Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Snowfall or snow depth? Because I can *maybe* see inches of snow falling and melting as it hits, but not accumulations for any kind of time outside of very special places.

Snow in the air and melting on pavement still very exciting for early November though. 

[RentonHill]

its over

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

its over

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 - I almost vomited seeing this.

[Sonny Summers]

The EURO is feeding us well tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

Very wet.

[RentonHill]

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8 - I almost vomited seeing this.

Great mountain snow pattern.

[Sonny Summers]

If we can all manage a hard freeze, I'll call this event a success.

[TacomaWx]

Jim disappeared pretty fast lol

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great mountain snow pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er very wet, flooding rains

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great mountain snow pattern.

Yes it is, and then turns into a flood. It's a lot better than a ridge-fest or split flow.

[Cascadia_Wx]

On second thought November 2014 might be a pretty high bar...

[Doinko]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

On second thought November 2014 might be a pretty high bar...

Yeah I doubt this will be a major event or anything but November 2014 did have some record warmth after the first cold event.

[Gradient Keeper]

Eugene finally sees some rain this run!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

On second thought November 2014 might be a pretty high bar...

Even the early November 2017 outbreak which was a few days before this potential one seems like it’s pretty high tier itself. 

[Jbolin]

Hey Rob, should I run for the knives now or wait until January 2nd? 

[Doinko]

This run isn't terrible at all in my opinion, very wet and some decent mountain snows.

 

[Kolk1604]

Hey Guys... 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, JSnowlin said:

Hey Rob, should I run for the knives now or wait until January 2nd? 

Late January.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Hey Guys... 

Not bad

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. HUGE rains, floods, and piles of mountain snow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Hey Guys... 

Chilly air for this time of year.

[Kolk1604]

Plenty of Cold Air in Canada and beginning to seep into Washington at the end 

[Cold Snap]

This looks like it could be really good for how early this is happening. I’m not expecting much because of how early in the winter it is but if we even get an inch out of this I would be happy along with some cold days and nights.

[snow_wizard]

Fascinating ECMWF run.  That second chance shot is pretty impressive.