TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Is this supposed to change my opinion, or simply show me that it's wrong? Neither. Reinforce your opinion actually based on your own preferences. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I don't know why this period interests me so much. I'm spending more time tracking the forcing/AAM and pattern tendencies than I am our potential severe weather outbreak this Sunday. I guess I just enjoy convoluted, brain-bending pattern transitions. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 18Z GFS is much more troughy later next week. Sort of like the ECMWF. I would post map but on my phone now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Haha, this solution makes less sense to me than the 12z one. What the heck is it doing in the NPAC after hour 204? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I'm just going to shut up and stop critiquing the models from here on out. I'm used to looking at the variables in play and understanding the nature of a pattern, but I think this one is too complicated for me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 I'm just going to shut up and stop critiquing the models from here on out. I'm used to looking at the variables in play and understanding the nature of a pattern, but I think this one is too complicated for me.Go by feeling and intuition! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Go by feeling and intuition!Yeah, there's a natural beauty and simplicity in forecasting based on pattern recognition. Some forecasters have built successful careers through the application of such technique. I can't do it outside my region, though. At least not yet. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Great halo today. Even a double structure at one point, but only near the left and right of the sun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 1, 2016 Report Share Posted June 1, 2016 Great halo today. Even a double structure at one point, but only near the left and right of the sun. You captured some cool-looking cloud formations there... almost look like letters! Actually though... the image super-imposed really distracts from the subject matter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 You captured some cool-looking cloud formations there... almost look like letters! Actually though... the image super-imposed really distracts from the subject matter. I know, I hate that I have to do it. I've lost too many photos on the internet to not cover them up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Yeah, there's a natural beauty and simplicity in forecasting based on pattern recognition. Some forecasters have built successful careers through the application of such technique. Mark Nelsen, for example. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Mark Nelsen, for example.Common sense doesn't hurt either. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Common sense doesn't hurt either. Intuition and raging warm bias trumps all. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Intuition and raging warm bias trumps all.Keep politics out of it!!! 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Keep politics out of it!!! Make the PNW climate great again? 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Make the PNW climate great again?Free cold anomalies for everyone!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Great evening... some interesting clouds, warm temps, and even a little humidity. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Common sense doesn't hurt either.Let me guess, you think nobody here has it but you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Let me guess, you think nobody here has it but you? What, you're denying the fact he's above us all? 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Free cold anomalies for everyone!!! Build a wall to keep the warm anomalies down south where they belong!! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Let me guess, you think nobody here has it but you? You seriously need some new material. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Build a wall to keep the warm anomalies down south where they belong!!Problem with a wall is that snow will melt faster on one side of it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Problem with a wall is that snow will melt faster on one side of it. First world problems. Hopefully figuring out how the snow will melt will be a major issue winter 2016-17. Tim and his gut say watch out for January... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Some pretend cumulus clouds earlier to my east. According to NWS Medford we had a rather weak trigger mechanism today for convection, otherwise something decent would have occurred. Seemingly it was very easy for convection to fire back in April/May. No I'm not being nostalgic or anything, storms generally had an easier time forming back in the last couple months. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Raining. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Problem with a wall is that snow will melt faster on one side of it.Lucky for us that will be the south facing side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Raining hard... very nice. And radar shows that Shawnigan is getting some good rain as well. 61 here with a dewpoint 57... windows and doors open listening to the sound of the rain on the roof and on the leaves. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Lucky for us that will be the south facing side.Dodging bullets! El Paso may become sub-Arctic. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 I made reference to this period in 9 days on the 12Z run... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_precip_p03.gif The same period looks like this on the 00Z run: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_216_precip_p03.gif'' Probably cooler at that time... but the trough offshore is way north. Huge changes again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Raining hard... very nice. And radar shows that Shawnigan is getting some good rain as well. 61 here with a dewpoint 57... windows and doors open listening to the sound of the rain on the roof and on the leaves.Meh, radar has been deceiving so far. The mountains to my west have been squeezing out most of the moisture. Just 0.03" here thus far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Meh, radar has been deceiving so far. The mountains to my west have been squeezing out most of the moisture. Just 0.03" here thus far. You just can't win there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Must..resist..urge..to..bash..GFS.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Must..resist..urge..to..bash..GFS.. Its all over the place! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 You just can't win there. I can "win" here though, but where Shawnigan is is where it's needed. I've been getting heavy showers on and off. I had a little break, but it's just started back up again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 You just can't win there.Some heavy showers went thru just south of here. Parts of Victoria have had ~1/3". Somewhat unusual as shawnigan has a wetter climate than Victoria in general. However, in westerly or northwesterly flow, we see more rainshadowing here than in Victoria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Some heavy showers went thru just south of here. Parts of Victoria have had ~1/3". Somewhat unusual as shawnigan has a wetter climate than Victoria in general. However, in westerly or northwesterly flow, we see more rainshadowing here than in Victoria.Yeah, it's currently raining heavily here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Its all over the place!Model swings at 240 hours!?? Get outta town! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Model swings at 240 hours!?? Get outta town!Considering they now initialize at 240, that's pretty shocking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 Meh, radar has been deceiving so far. The mountains to my west have been squeezing out most of the moisture. Just 0.03" here thus far. That sucks. It was a humid day in Victoria with sprinkles of rain throughout. Now it's dumping down. In the past hour of rain we're already approaching, in some areas maybe passing, the totals from the Saturday system. It looks like there's some precip starting to work its way in up your way. With the relatively high dew points and quick transition to a ridge I wonder how much of this humidity is going to get trapped in the stagnant air. I don't see much of a post-frontal push to clear it out. It could make for an uncomfortable day on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted June 2, 2016 Report Share Posted June 2, 2016 How is this for torchiness and the heat never ends? EC_BCweather Despite a sweltering first half, May actually came in near normal in terms of temperature #BCweather https://t.co/fJO68LBlei01/06/16 9:05 am https://twitter.com/ec_bcweather/status/738038835607707648 Vancouver Island finished with above normal temps, but much of the province was normal or BELOW normal in temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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