stuffradio Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 I've officially surpassed the rain totals tonight for this July compared to last July at 1.16" of rain. It's still raining steadily almost hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 The ECMWF EPS from today has below normal 850 mb anomalies for the next 3 weeks over the PNW. It also has below normal heights for the next 3 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 I think PDX might be close to normal still on 7/7. Going to be hard to score a -10 for the month just 3 days later! EDIT: They are at +3.5 after the first 2 days of that period. Could end up a little above normal still at 7/10. Oooh... Everyone should be solidly below normal by the 15th, probably -2 to -3ish. This may be the odd year where July is cooler than June. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 The ECMWF EPS from today has below normal 850 mb anomalies for the next 3 weeks over the PNW. It also has below normal heights for the next 3 weeks.Yeah, solid agreement within the ensemble aggregate too. Goes to show how far we've fallen behind when the EPS mean is more consolidated at day 20 than the GEFS mean at day 7. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Oooh... Everyone should be solidly below normal by the 15th, probably -2 to -3ish. This may be the odd year where July is cooler than June. Tomorrow looks pretty warmish around Seattle as I mentioned earlier. Should be 75 for a high after a warm night. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/wa_tsfc.24.0000.gif And its humid. Nights are probably going to stay at or above normal. SEA is still pretty close to normal as well. Do you know other years where July was cooler than June? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 For what it's worth, the Canadian sure takes a much more pedestrian stance on next weekend. Troughalicious, but more like Panda Express orange chicken as opposed to an In and Out double double. Looking back... this sort of worked out. This ULL does not seem as bad at least for the Seattle area. Both weekend days now appear like they will have some sunshine and highs in the 70s and the rain is rather limited. Far from a cold washout that I was thinking earlier in the week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Sunday also looks like it could reach the mid-70s in Seattle. Just checked Monday and its the same thing with mid-70s again. That is what I was saying about Friday and Sunday last night. Nothing has changed. Jesse said he had no idea what I was looking at... it was this. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.72.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 The WRF nest is biased warm at 2m. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 The GFS has the most prolific warm 2m temperatures bias of any model, and the WRF nest runs warmer than the parent GFS. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Ensemble mean is below average for the entire 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 It's rained every day here so far this month except 2 or 3 days. Nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 What's the earliest date for frost you've experienced? I think for me it was the beginning of October sometime. I can't remember exactly when though.I've had frost as early as 9/24/05. This was when I was living in Orchards, WA which is a good radiational cooling spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 You need to stop overreacting to everything I post. The "screw you"s and "STFU"s are childish and make this place look bad. I think I made a good point about small shifts in an overall deep trough having to do more with possible quirks in this weekend's pattern than a Canadian-like solution. Your statement was inaccurate. And you seem to be the only one who thinks you are doing great. Funny how that works...You have been a fairly consistent prick, lately. Probably made more compelling by your pretty recent calls for more civility and such. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 You have been a fairly consistent prick, lately. Probably made more compelling by your pretty recent calls for more civility and such.Overreactive playpen of hyperbole? I have been just fine with everybody else (aside from your usual prickish self) As usual, Tim is the common factor. Likely going to need to have to pull the plug again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Over reactive playpen of hyperbole? I have been just fine with everybody else (aside from your usual prickish self) As usual Tim is the common factor. Likely going to need to have to pull the plug again.Hey, I own it. I don't hide behind it like you do during these thinly-veiled, self-righteous make nice sessions of yours. Carry on. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Hey, I own it. I don't hide behind it like you do during these thinly-veiled, self-righteous make nice sessions of yours. Carry on.That baseball comment must have really bothered you. I figured it might a little but not this much. I guess as far as underestimating things the Canadian and I are in lockstep. Lol!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 That baseball comment must have really bothered you. I figured it might a little but not this much. I guess as far as underestimating things the Canadian and I are in lockstep. Lol!!Whatever gets you through the night. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Whatever gets you through the night.A fresh retort like that is all this guy needs! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 A fresh retort like that is all this guy needs!Just taking a little heat off my boy Tim. It's a rough stretch of weather for him, something we'd think you could relate to. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Just taking a little heat off my boy Tim. It's a rough stretch of weather for him, something we'd think you could relate to.Has not been too bad so far. Partly because we have been in CA and now Idaho. But I was hoping to see a turnaround in mid-July of course. It's only July 8th now. We will see how it goes. I am sure there will be enough nice days to make it feel like summer. Last Saturday was perfect. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Has not been too bad so far. Partly because we have been in CA and now Idaho. But I was hoping to see a turnaround in mid-July of course. It's only July 8th now. We will see how it goes. I am sure there will be enough nice days to make it feel like summer. Last Saturday was perfect.Felt like summer rain today. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 0.20" yesterday, 0.05" so far today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Do you know other years where July was cooler than June?1982 and 1986 off the top of my head. Been awhile. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 The shortwave late this afternoon has the potential to be pretty vigorous. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Woke up to a thick fog here in Victoria this morning. It's since lifted up here, but it seems to be holding on near the water. We only ended up with ~0.15" yesterday, but the air is still saturated and I'd love to see some more rain today. The GFS has been showing some convective showers this afternoon; could be interesting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Woke up to a thick fog here in Victoria this morning. It's since lifted up here, but it seems to be holding on near the water. We only ended up with ~0.15" yesterday, but the air is still saturated and I'd love to see some more rain today. The GFS has been showing some convective showers this afternoon; could be interesting. Hope you guys see something substantial! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Hope you guys see something substantial! I sure hope so, the ground is so dry now that most of what has fallen lately evaporates by the following afternoon. A longer period of elevated humidity like this one could help though as long as we can manage some heavier showers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Looks like much of the Columbia Basin is seeing some moderate rain this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 LMAO!!!! Everytime I come around this forum, It never fails.....I always see the same people bickering about stuff....Jeezz. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 12Z Canadian seems to support Phil's idea that the troughing might become focused a little more east. That looks like a nicer troughy pattern than having ULLs spin offshore. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 You have become just impossible. Look in the mirror buddy and stop acting so innocent. Dewey called it right.Careful...or you might get a passive aggressive PM from him. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Careful...or you might get a passive aggressive PM from him. Fred encourages us to attempt to solve things over PM here when possible. Like I attempted to do with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Nice day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 12Z Canadian seems to support Phil's idea that the troughing might become focused a little more east. That looks like a nicer troughy pattern than having ULLs spin offshore.12z gfs teases a ridge late next week, then the following trough looks exceptionally dynamic, but not much directly overhead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 How many times are you going to bring that up, d*uche? I acknowledged my slow bias weeks ago, so why regurgitate it again? Does it make you feel better about your own screwups? You're letting your desire to compete with me infect your psyche. You've been highly disrespectful as of late. Forced to because even when I say troughing July 1-10 and you say ridging until July 10-15... I am still the one who is always wrong. Sorry... not meant to attack you. You have acknowledged your slow bias and I have conceded that it appears you might have been right about the rest of July. I was illustrating a point that even when I am right in a debate its still wrong according to someone. If we made opposite predictions in June then I would be mocked for being wrong as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Forced to because even when I say troughing July 1-10 and you say ridging until July 10-15... I am still the one who is always wrong. Sorry... not meant to attack you. You have acknowledged your slow bias and I have conceded that it appears you might have been right about the rest of July. I was illustrating a point that even when I am right in a debate its still wrong according to someone. If we made opposite predictions in June then I would be mocked for being wrong as well.Fair enough. I'm not as good of a forecaster on submonthly scales as I am on monthly/seasonal scales, as most of my education/academic interest and research is focused within the seasonal to decadal (climate) timescale. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 12z ECMWF remains consistent with the idea of a ridge retrogression next week over TC activity in the EPAC. Troughing returns once the ridge slides offshore. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 12z Euro is a nice looking run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 12z Euro is a nice looking run.Your mom's nice looking. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 8, 2016 Report Share Posted July 8, 2016 Your mom's nice looking. ...........thanks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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