July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

I've officially surpassed the rain totals tonight for this July compared to last July at 1.16" of rain. It's still raining steadily almost hard.

[stuffradio]

The ECMWF EPS from today has below normal 850 mb anomalies for the next 3 weeks over the PNW. It also has below normal heights for the next 3 weeks.

[Front Ranger]

I think PDX might be close to normal still on 7/7.    Going to be hard to score a -10 for the month just 3 days later!

 

EDIT: They are at +3.5 after the first 2 days of that period.     Could end up a little above normal still at 7/10.   

 

Oooh...

 

Everyone should be solidly below normal by the 15th, probably -2 to -3ish.

 

This may be the odd year where July is cooler than June.

[Phil]

The ECMWF EPS from today has below normal 850 mb anomalies for the next 3 weeks over the PNW. It also has below normal heights for the next 3 weeks.

Yeah, solid agreement within the ensemble aggregate too. Goes to show how far we've fallen behind when the EPS mean is more consolidated at day 20 than the GEFS mean at day 7.

[TT-SEA]

Oooh...

 

Everyone should be solidly below normal by the 15th, probably -2 to -3ish.

 

This may be the odd year where July is cooler than June.

 

Tomorrow looks pretty warmish around Seattle as I mentioned earlier.   Should be 75 for a high after a warm night.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/wa_tsfc.24.0000.gif

 

And its humid.   Nights are probably going to stay at or above normal.

 

SEA is still pretty close to normal as well.   

 

Do you know other years where July was cooler than June?

[TT-SEA]

For what it's worth, the Canadian sure takes a much more pedestrian stance on next weekend.

 

Troughalicious, but more like Panda Express orange chicken as opposed to an In and Out double double.

 

 

Looking back... this sort of worked out.   This ULL does not seem as bad at least for the Seattle area.

 

Both weekend days now appear like they will have some sunshine and highs in the 70s and the rain is rather limited.  Far from a cold washout that I was thinking earlier in the week.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday also looks like it could reach the mid-70s in Seattle.   Just checked Monday and its the same thing with mid-70s again.  

 

That is what I was saying about Friday and Sunday last night.   Nothing has changed.   Jesse said he had no idea what I was looking at... it was this.  
 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.72.0000.gif

[Phil]

The WRF nest is biased warm at 2m.

[Phil]

The GFS has the most prolific warm 2m temperatures bias of any model, and the WRF nest runs warmer than the parent GFS.

[Jesse]

Ensemble mean is below average for the entire 00z. 

[luminen]

It's rained every day here so far this month except 2 or 3 days. Nice. 

[Jesse]

What's the earliest date for frost you've experienced? I think for me it was the beginning of October sometime. I can't remember exactly when though.

I've had frost as early as 9/24/05. This was when I was living in Orchards, WA which is a good radiational cooling spot.

[Deweydog]

You need to stop overreacting to everything I post. The "screw you"s and "STFU"s are childish and make this place look bad.

 

I think I made a good point about small shifts in an overall deep trough having to do more with possible quirks in this weekend's pattern than a Canadian-like solution. Your statement was inaccurate.

 

And you seem to be the only one who thinks you are doing great. Funny how that works...

You have been a fairly consistent prick, lately. Probably made more compelling by your pretty recent calls for more civility and such.

[Jesse]

You have been a fairly consistent prick, lately. Probably made more compelling by your pretty recent calls for more civility and such.

Overreactive playpen of hyperbole?

 

I have been just fine with everybody else (aside from your usual prickish self) As usual, Tim is the common factor. Likely going to need to have to pull the plug again.

[Deweydog]

Over reactive playpen of hyperbole?

 

I have been just fine with everybody else (aside from your usual prickish self) As usual Tim is the common factor. Likely going to need to have to pull the plug again.

Hey, I own it. I don't hide behind it like you do during these thinly-veiled, self-righteous make nice sessions of yours.

 

Carry on.

[Jesse]

Hey, I own it. I don't hide behind it like you do during these thinly-veiled, self-righteous make nice sessions of yours.

 

Carry on.

That baseball comment must have really bothered you. I figured it might a little but not this much.

 

I guess as far as underestimating things the Canadian and I are in lockstep. Lol!!

[Deweydog]

That baseball comment must have really bothered you. I figured it might a little but not this much.

 

I guess as far as underestimating things the Canadian and I are in lockstep. Lol!!

Whatever gets you through the night.

[Jesse]

Whatever gets you through the night.

A fresh retort like that is all this guy needs!

[Deweydog]

A fresh retort like that is all this guy needs!

Just taking a little heat off my boy Tim. It's a rough stretch of weather for him, something we'd think you could relate to.

[TT-SEA]

Just taking a little heat off my boy Tim. It's a rough stretch of weather for him, something we'd think you could relate to.

Has not been too bad so far. Partly because we have been in CA and now Idaho.

 

But I was hoping to see a turnaround in mid-July of course. It's only July 8th now. We will see how it goes. I am sure there will be enough nice days to make it feel like summer. Last Saturday was perfect.

[Deweydog]

Has not been too bad so far. Partly because we have been in CA and now Idaho.

 

But I was hoping to see a turnaround in mid-July of course. It's only July 8th now. We will see how it goes. I am sure there will be enough nice days to make it feel like summer. Last Saturday was perfect.

Felt like summer rain today.

[Tyler Mode]

0.20" yesterday, 0.05" so far today.

[Front Ranger]

Do you know other years where July was cooler than June?

1982 and 1986 off the top of my head. Been awhile.

[Jesse]

The shortwave late this afternoon has the potential to be pretty vigorous.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Woke up to a thick fog here in Victoria this morning. It's since lifted up here, but it seems to be holding on near the water. We only ended up with ~0.15" yesterday, but the air is still saturated and I'd love to see some more rain today. The GFS has been showing some convective showers this afternoon; could be interesting.

[Jesse]

Woke up to a thick fog here in Victoria this morning. It's since lifted up here, but it seems to be holding on near the water. We only ended up with ~0.15" yesterday, but the air is still saturated and I'd love to see some more rain today. The GFS has been showing some convective showers this afternoon; could be interesting.

 

Hope you guys see something substantial!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Hope you guys see something substantial!

 

I sure hope so, the ground is so dry now that most of what has fallen lately evaporates by the following afternoon. A longer period of elevated humidity like this one could help though as long as we can manage some heavier showers.

[Jesse]

Looks like much of the Columbia Basin is seeing some moderate rain this morning.

[crf450ish]

LMAO!!!! Everytime I come around this forum, It never fails.....I always see the same people bickering about stuff....Jeezz. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian seems to support Phil's idea that the troughing might become focused a little more east.    That looks like a nicer troughy pattern than having ULLs spin offshore.

[MossMan]

You have become just impossible. Look in the mirror buddy and stop acting so innocent.

 

Dewey called it right.

Careful...or you might get a passive aggressive PM from him.

[Jesse]

Careful...or you might get a passive aggressive PM from him.

 

Fred encourages us to attempt to solve things over PM here when possible. Like I attempted to do with you.

[Jesse]

Nice day?

[GobBluth]

12Z Canadian seems to support Phil's idea that the troughing might become focused a little more east.    That looks like a nicer troughy pattern than having ULLs spin offshore.

12z gfs teases a ridge late next week, then the following trough looks exceptionally dynamic, but not much directly overhead.

[TT-SEA]

How many times are you going to bring that up, d*uche? I acknowledged my slow bias weeks ago, so why regurgitate it again? Does it make you feel better about your own screwups?

 

You're letting your desire to compete with me infect your psyche. You've been highly disrespectful as of late.

 

 

Forced to because even when I say troughing July 1-10 and you say ridging until July 10-15... I am still the one who is always wrong.

 

Sorry... not meant to attack you.    You have acknowledged your slow bias and I have conceded that it appears you might have been right about the rest of July.

 

I was illustrating a point that even when I am right in a debate its still wrong according to someone.     If we made opposite predictions in June then I would be mocked for being wrong as well.    

[Phil]

Forced to because even when I say troughing July 1-10 and you say ridging until July 10-15... I am still the one who is always wrong.

 

Sorry... not meant to attack you. You have acknowledged your slow bias and I have conceded that it appears you might have been right about the rest of July.

 

I was illustrating a point that even when I am right in a debate its still wrong according to someone. If we made opposite predictions in June then I would be mocked for being wrong as well.

Fair enough. I'm not as good of a forecaster on submonthly scales as I am on monthly/seasonal scales, as most of my education/academic interest and research is focused within the seasonal to decadal (climate) timescale.

[Phil]

12z ECMWF remains consistent with the idea of a ridge retrogression next week over TC activity in the EPAC. Troughing returns once the ridge slides offshore.

[Jesse]

12z Euro is a nice looking run.

[Deweydog]

12z Euro is a nice looking run.

Your mom's nice looking.

[Jesse]

Your mom's nice looking.

 

...........thanks?