August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Troughs in early September... very rare but it has happened in our history.     

 

Going way back here... but does anyone remember this beast from early September in 2015?    

 

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Certainly a bit odd the marine push hasn't even made it to Hoquiam yet.  Normally when there is to be sharp cooling inland the marine air hits the coast at least a day before it gets to Seattle.  In this case it appears there will be less than a 12 hour gap.

[snow_wizard]

See... Low sun angles.

 

The angle was abnormally low in 1968-69.  Very possible that's the reason the winter was so cold.

[Guest Winterdog]

Troughs in early September... very rare but it has happened in our history.     

 

Going way back here... but does anyone remember this beast from early September in 2015?

Despite your diabolical intentions, I refuse to have my enthusiasm for the upcoming cool trough dampened.

[ShawniganLake]

I just looked at September 1968 and there was a period of chilly weather around the middle of the month in the PNW. From September 13 to September 22, Seattle had 5 straight days with highs in the 50s and 7 days in that period with highs 60 or lower. For PDX, the average temperature in that 10 day stretch was 61.8.

You know we were heading for a Nino that winter. Not a good comparison to this year.

[TT-SEA]

Despite your diabolical intentions, I refuse to have my enthusiasm for the upcoming cool trough dampened.

Good! I will be enjoying too. Just like last year.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah but Seattle got almost 6 feet that Winter so I can't ignore it.

Haha. Okay. A Nino that saw 6 ft of snow is why you should ignore it.

[Jesse]

Yeah but Seattle got almost 6 feet that Winter so I can't ignore it.

 

You realize this makes absolutely no sense, right?

[TT-SEA]

Reading up on our September 2015 thread.

 

Crazy stuff early in the month.   Cold, thunderstorms, snow in the mountains, heavy rain.  

 

I had 5 inches of rain in just a few days.

 

The September 2016 trough has a tall order to match up with the craziness in early September last year.

[Jesse]

There are other factors in play that affect our snow chances any given Winter. It's just not El Nino/La Nina. We got clobbered with snow here in 1968-1969 because factors stronger than an El Nino came about. Some La Nina years we get no snow at all.

 

So you think there are factors at play this year that will override ENSO and give us a shot at a 1968-69 redux?

 

What factors are these?

[Deweydog]

Sun angle seems to have gotten lower just within the last hour here.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, that's also the point where subtropical airmasses (10/21/2003, 11/6/2006, 11/13/1999) take over as our record high fuel. Late October is very late for warm east winds.

 

There seems to be a cutoff pretty much on Halloween.  

 

1949 and 2010 illustrate that no matter how impressive the ridge, its a tall order to hit 70 at PDX after 10/31 in a subsidence pattern. 

[TT-SEA]

There are other factors in play that affect our snow chances any given Winter. It's just not El Nino/La Nina. We got clobbered with snow here in 1968-1969 because factors stronger than an El Nino came about. Some La Nina years we get no snow at all.

 

We have cool, troughy periods in most years in September.  

 

Picking one period out from 1968 is not really objective analysis.  But still fun.  

 

We could pick out these same cool September periods from years with no cold or snow as well.  

[wx_statman]

Not necessarily. We can see heights well into the 580's pretty much any time of year. Late October 2003 featured 600dm heights just offshore prior to the big retrogession at the end of the month.

 

That ridge was a beast. 

 

97 at Coquille and 95 at Powers on 10/26. Hottest weather ever seen in Oregon so late in the fall. 

[Deweydog]

That ridge was a beast.

 

97 at Coquille and 95 at Powers on 10/26. Hottest weather ever seen in Oregon so late in the fall.

That call and early winter was a fun stretch.

[snow_wizard]

There are other factors in play that affect our snow chances any given Winter. It's just not El Nino/La Nina. We got clobbered with snow here in 1968-1969 because factors stronger than an El Nino came about. Some La Nina years we get no snow at all.

 

I think this has a shot at being a good winter, but 1968-69 isn't a good match.

[GHweatherChris]

Certainly a bit odd the marine push hasn't even made it to Hoquiam yet. Normally when there is to be sharp cooling inland the marine air hits the coast at least a day before it gets to Seattle. In this case it appears there will be less than a 12 hour gap.

90 in Astoria still.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think my location will see 50"+ of snow this winter. 

[Deweydog]

I think my location will see 50"+ of snow this winter.

Is this like a Trump thing?

[wx_statman]

I think this has a shot at being a good winter, but 1968-69 isn't a good match.

 

1968-69 was such an outlier that no year will ever be a good match. But yeah, the Nino vs. Nina thing is the obvious one here. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows Seattle is back into the 80s on Monday... also shows upper 60s for 3 out of 4 days later next week.

 

Portland does not drop below 80 for a high until next Tuesday... then a string of mid 70s and one day in the upper 60s.  

[BLI snowman]

August 1968 was our wettest on record.

 

Can you say analog?

[Phil]

One of them is the QBO.

 

 

I haven't said we would see a 1968-69 redux. I'm still working on my Winter forecast that I will release sometime in late October/early November.

That's one botched QBO wave right there.

[Guest Winterdog]

ECMWF shows Seattle is back into the 80s on Monday... also shows upper 60s for 3 out of 4 days later next week.

 

Portland does not drop below 80 for a high until next Tuesday... then a string of mid 70s and one day in the upper 60s.

I'm sure you are standing in a puddle of pee right now aren't you?

[TT-SEA]

I'm sure you are standing in a puddle of pee right now aren't you?

 

No... reporting what the ECMWF shows.        

 

I just signed up for WeatherBell.    

[Bryant]

ECMWF shows Seattle is back into the 80s on Monday... also shows upper 60s for 3 out of 4 days later next week.

 

Portland does not drop below 80 for a high until next Tuesday... then a string of mid 70s and one day in the upper 60s.

Do you always edit your posts with an extra sentence or 2 in hopes of pissing someone off?

[wx_statman]

August 1968 was our wettest on record.

 

Can you say analog?

 

We have Richard Nixon to thank for 1968-69. Had he not been elected that year, the winter would have turned out much different.

[TT-SEA]

Do you always edit your posts with an extra sentence or 2 in hopes of pissing someone off?

 

 

With actual model data?   No.

[Jesse]

Do you always edit your posts with an extra sentence or 2 in hopes of pissing someone off?

 

The constant innocent act is the thing that makes it hardest to stomach.

[Kayla]

ECMWF shows Seattle is back into the 80s on Monday... also shows upper 60s for 3 out of 4 days later next week.

 

Portland does not drop below 80 for a high until next Tuesday... then a string of mid 70s and one day in the upper 60s.  

 

Did you finally get WeatherBell??

[BLI snowman]

We have Richard Nixon to thank for 1968-69. Had he not been elected that year, the winter would have turned out much different.

 

Seems plausible. 1972-73 was excellent, too. And 1960-61 was utter poo. 

[TT-SEA]

The constant innocent act is the thing that makes it hardest to stomach.

 

 

Seriously just activated my account and reported what the ECMWF showed for SEA and PDX.

[TT-SEA]

Did you finally get WeatherBell??

 

Yes.  

[wx_statman]

I've noticed the Tim hatred has been kicked up a couple notches, at least since the last time I was a regular here. Its interesting. I don't think he's changed that much over the years. 

[BLI snowman]

Comfy day.

[TT-SEA]

I've noticed the Tim hatred has been kicked up a couple notches, at least since the last time I was a regular here. Its interesting. I don't think he's changed that much over the years. 

 

 

If I loved cold weather all year long and hated warm weather then I would be a hero on here with the same exact posting style.     No doubt.

[wx_statman]

Seems plausible. 1972-73 was excellent, too. And 1960-61 was utter poo. 

 

Good points!

 

And I have to admit, I've had a soft spot for Obama since 12-20-2008. Can't forget a gift like that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

September 2013 was the wettest ever and that December it hit -10 in Eugene...Hmmmm....

[wx_statman]

If I loved cold weather and hated warm weather then I would be a hero on here with the same exact posting style.     No doubt.

 

To some anyway. No doubt.

[Kayla]

Yes.  

 

About time!