September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Really on day 8 on the 12Z GFS.

 

Next Monday is still dry and warm with the front offshore.

Meaningless difference really..it's coming either way.

[TT-SEA]

Meaningless difference really..it's coming either way.

 

No... there is a difference.   For one reason its the weekend.  

 

Second... a delay has meaning sometimes in general.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS does go zonal for awhile late next week.   

[Geos]

Brrr...had a low of 44 degrees this am.

 

Beat ya. 43.5° here.

[TT-SEA]

Beat ya. 43.5° here.

 

 

I beat you all... 49 degrees here!    Of course I was sleeping anyways so it does not really matter to me.

 

Looks likes a low of 54 at SEA.  

[Timmy Supercell]

The low was slightly warmer this morning. 43 at KLMT. I expected upper 30's.

[Geos]

I beat you all... 49 degrees here!    Of course I was sleeping anyways so it does not really matter to me.

 

Looks likes a low of 54 at SEA.  

 

 

When is the average first frost for the lowlands around here?

[TT-SEA]

 

When is the average first frost for the lowlands around here?

 

I don't know... depends on the microclimate of course.

[MossMan]

I don't know... depends on the microclimate of course.

I usually see the first frosty rooftop around the second week of October.

[BLI snowman]

 

When is the average first frost for the lowlands around here?

 

Really varies, most outlying/suburban spots around here average a first frost somewhere around October 10.

[wx_statman]

That was a good one, but the winter on the whole was awfully warm.  I must admit I forgot about it when I made that post.

 

That was a tremendous Arctic outbreak though. It tends to get lost in the shuffle between December 1919, December 1924, January 1930, etc. 

[wx_statman]

Looks like Shelton fell to at least 37. Not bad for summer.

 

Confusing individual events with averages again?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was a tremendous Arctic outbreak though. It tends to get lost in the shuffle between December 1919, December 1924, January 1930, etc. 

 

Yeah, I didn't even remember it. Low of 5 at SLE. That is pretty impressive. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The old "Wallace Orchard" station in West Salem had 23/1 on 1/1/1924. 

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00358988&year=1924&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF backed off a little from the 00Z run for the weekend... but still way more aggressive than the GFS.

 

Its also goes back to ridging early next week unlike its 00Z run.

[Front Ranger]

Confusing individual events with averages again?

 

What? It's still summer. Late summer, when the lows can get quite a bit cooler than mid summer.

[Geos]

I don't know... depends on the microclimate of course.

 

Yeah, makes total sense. Probably the Snoqualmie Valley it is the earliest.

 

I usually see the first frosty rooftop around the second week of October.

 

Ok, so not much different then the area climate I left.

 

Really varies, most outlying/suburban spots around here average a first frost somewhere around October 10.

 

So, the first couple weeks of October in general.

 

Already up to 67° here. Love how the dry air masses warm up quick.

[Front Ranger]

Shelton already up to 72 after a low of 38.

 

Station of the gods also made it into the 30s this morning.

[Deweydog]

PDX made it to 49!

 

Earliest sub-50 since the mid 19th century, I believe.

[wx_statman]

What? It's still summer. Late summer, when the lows can get quite a bit cooler than mid summer.

 

Ah, I see. I thought you were taking a little shot there. 

[ShawniganLake]

Didn't see anything too chilly in SW BC this morning. I was one of the cooler spots at 46F. Looked like mostly 50-55F for lows. Even some a little warmer in the breezy places.

[wx_statman]

The old "Wallace Orchard" station in West Salem had 23/1 on 1/1/1924. 

 

https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00358988&year=1924&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

1/1/1924 was right there with 1979 for coldest New Year's day in the west. 

 

10 at Newport that morning. Readings near -50 in western Montana. 

[wx_statman]

Its interesting looking back on this article from 2008, when there was talk of a pause in global warming in the 2010's. 

 

The reality has been different of course, with record warmth globally over the last couple years. 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7376301.stm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much everyone I know i convinced the return of the "blob" is all but assuring us another record warm fall/winter. 

[Phil]

Its interesting looking back on this article from 2008, when there was talk of a pause in global warming in the 2010's.

 

The reality has been different of course, with record warmth globally over the last couple years.

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7376301.stm

Quite the Niño spike, given the warmer background temperature in 2016 vs 1998. There's been a notable slowing since 2001, however, and global temperatures are cooling off the Niño induced peak.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2016_v6.jpg

[wx_statman]

Quite the Niño spike, given the warmer background temperature in 2016 vs 1998. There's been a notable slowing since 2001, however, and global temperatures are cooling off the Niño induced peak.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2016_v6.jpg

 

We're on quite a roll though. 2016 is basically a lock to finish as the warmest year on record...for the third straight year. 

[Phil]

The surface datasets should break the record, though I'm not sure the lower troposohere will make it.

 

Interesting how impressive the "Niño spike" was at the surface, relative to the lower troposphere. These are the five mainstream datasets.

 

Lower Troposphere, UAH/RSS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0F90EE76-2A40-4595-83AC-4642110D9C14_zpsgn24v9lc.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A9680AB4-21B2-4F80-807F-73D93079BF7A_zpsxfiv6iav.gif

 

Surface, HADCRUT4, NCDC, GISS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A1E04877-66EB-4D1A-BF4F-FE563484534B_zps3vxgeklh.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6FD2E9CA-0856-4DA0-97C6-1EE7B4C6D170_zps2qxndi6u.gif

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5D648CC2-9F57-4704-806D-7E908110EF49_zps6css83pj.gif

[MossMan]

Pretty much everyone I know i convinced the return of the "blob" is all but assuring us another record warm fall/winter.

And here I just bought brand new tires for both my truck and wife's SUV for what I was hoping would be a decent winter for the first time since 2011/ 2012. Perhaps if I did zero winter prep we would have a good one again. Last time I was caught off guard and was not ready for winter weather was Nov 2006, that was epic. Think I will just leave the nearly bald tires on...that will do it!!

[Deweydog]

Quite the Niño spike, given the warmer background temperature in 2016 vs 1998. There's been a notable slowing since 2001, however, and global temperatures are cooling off the Niño induced peak.

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2016_v6.jpg

Poor 1997-98 just isn't as special as it used to be.

[BLI snowman]

Its interesting looking back on this article from 2008, when there was talk of a pause in global warming in the 2010's. 

 

The reality has been different of course, with record warmth globally over the last couple years. 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7376301.stm

 

Yes, there was lots of talk on here that a new -PDO phase would mean a 1945-75 style global cooldown.

[Front Ranger]

The Euro pattern would deliver a couple gut punches to Son of Blob.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And here I just bought brand new tires for both my truck and wife's SUV for what I was hoping would be a decent winter for the first time since 2011/ 2012. Perhaps if I did zero winter prep we would have a good one again. Last time I was caught off guard and was not ready for winter weather was Nov 2006, that was epic. Think I will just leave the nearly bald tires on...that will do it!!

 

I am not convinced that this winter will be a fail. I think there is a chance we could see some decent winter weather. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the blob is still there in 3 months I'll be concerned. Right now it is not a big part of my life.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX made it 83 nights in a row above 50. I suppose all good things must come to an end. 

 

It was 112 days last year...

[Weather101]

First the ECMWF goes off the rails... and then click over to NFL.com and see this lovely headline:

 

You guys took out Tony Romo. Deal with it.

[Deweydog]

For stress-related illness and irony's sake, the blob is in better shape now than it was a year ago:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.10.2015.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.12.2016.gif

[Front Ranger]

You guys took out Tony Romo. Deal with it.

 

Because Jesse is my homey: http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1397-2016-fall-off-topic-thread-aka-football-season/

[James Jones]

Its interesting looking back on this article from 2008, when there was talk of a pause in global warming in the 2010's. 

 

The reality has been different of course, with record warmth globally over the last couple years. 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7376301.stm

The last 3 years have really made up for the "pause" we saw in the 2000s.  August 2016 was the warmest on record globally yet again, not many cold anomalies to be found anywhere on the planet:

 

http://i.imgur.com/iiq9ytT.png

 

Maybe in the 2050s some of us will still be posting on this forum, reminiscing over how cool the 2010s were. 

[Weather101]

For stress-related illness and irony's sake, the blob is in better shape now than it was a year ago:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.10.2015.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.9.12.2016.gif

I dont know if too laugh or cry.

[Front Ranger]

The last 3 years have really made up for the "pause" we saw in the 2000s.  August 2016 was the warmest on record globally yet again, not many cold anomalies to be found anywhere on the planet:

 

http://i.imgur.com/iiq9ytT.png

 

Maybe in the 2050s some of us will still be posting on this forum, reminiscing over how cool the 2010s were. 

 

It's worth noting that the surface temp sources have been running easily warmer this year than the troposphere sources. 2016 is still running record warm according to GISS, but there's been cooling since the peak in Jan-Mar on the satellite sources, as they tend to respond faster to ENSO changes.

 

I expect we'll start to see some cooling on the surface sources by October.