October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Of course they're not "death knells". They just statistically favor winters with reduced Arctic intrusions into the Western US during -ENSO.

 

The only satellite era October to feature a strong Pacific jet and be followed by a cold/blocky winter is 2010, though 1985 was borderline.

 

When looking at 1985-86 you almost have to judge that by Nov - Jan instead of Dec - Feb.  That November  / December combo was epically cold.  Certainly better than anything that has happened in the winter proper since.

[BLI snowman]

When looking at 1985-86 you almost have to judge that by Nov - Jan instead of Dec - Feb. That November / December combo was epically cold. Certainly better than anything that has happened in the winter proper since.

I would think that the November 11-December 31 period in 1985 was easily colder than any 50 day stretch since then. Terrible year for us, though....

[Phil]

When looking at 1985-86 you almost have to judge that by Nov - Jan instead of Dec - Feb. That November / December combo was epically cold. Certainly better than anything that has happened in the winter proper since.

Yeah, I was just looking at DJF. Even if I switch it over to the other side, however, the results don't really change much.

[Phil]

New post from Cliff on CO2 levels...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/co2-levels-rise-above-400-ppm-you-will.html

Zzzzzzzz.

[TT-SEA]

Zzzzzzzz.

Gotta love his dramatic flair!

[ShawniganLake]

New post from Cliff on CO2 levels...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/co2-levels-rise-above-400-ppm-you-will.html

I am a bit skeptical that an increase of 100 PPM could screw up the worlds climate.  The atmosphere is now 0.0004% CO2 instead of 0.0003% CO2. 

[ShawniganLake]

I imagine Florida and the SE are starting to get nervous as Matthew's track has been shifting west as of late. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like Matthew is going to be big trouble in the SE.  Interestingly the westward shift of the Bermuda high over previous expectations will also have the effect of forcing lower heights over the NW later in the week than previous model runs had indicated.  I like the 0z GFS much more than earlier runs at least for the period of late this week through early next week.

[Front Ranger]

New post from Cliff on CO2 levels...

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/co2-levels-rise-above-400-ppm-you-will.html

Doesn't sound great for lowland snow chances.

[snow_wizard]

This is the trend I'm more worried about, in regards to our long term future on this planet. We've got ~100yrs of fossil fuels left to burn. Hopefully these guys have their science right (positive feedback loops and all), and it delays the inevitable long enough for us to find a solution and/or plan ahead.

 

This stable climate won't last forever.

 

 

 

 

Somebody needs to show these graphics to Leo Decaprio.  He may come to realize he won't have to travel to Argentina to find snow during the Northern Hemisphere winter!

[snow_wizard]

Doesn't sound great for lowland snow chances.

 

Ed Berry created a very interesting graphic to show just how insignificant the recent small increase in CO2 really is.  He is brilliant when it comes to understanding the atmosphere and he thinks this all a bunch of BS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High of 54 in Redding, CA today. Quite the departure...

[TT-SEA]

I not an expert... but I think its going to be sort of warm and wet...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Phil]

I not an expert... but I think its going to be sort of warm and wet...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Wow, 850mb temps of 13-18C+ on roughy 40% of those members, unless I'm reading it wrong.

 

Need to get rid of that GOA vortex.

[James Jones]

High of 54 in Redding, CA today. Quite the departure...

That would be tied for their 3rd coldest October maximum on record if accurate.

[snow_wizard]

That would be tied for their 3rd coldest October maximum on record if accurate.

 

Really impressive when you consider this is so early in the month.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, 850mb temps of 13-18C+ on roughy 40% of those members, unless I'm reading it wrong.

 

Need to get rid of that GOA vortex.

 

The 0z is quite a bit better.  The trough axis is further east  which leaves the NW in a cooler situation.  Strong cold fronts at day 9 and day 12 on the GFS both drop 850s below 5C over Seattle.  If this trend continues any warmth may be nearly done away with as the time frame narrows.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[snow_wizard]

Tropical!! Nice

 

0z operational says no.

[snow_wizard]

WAY better GFS run tonight.  At face value it shows heavy mountain snows in the 10 to 15 day period.

[Phil]

The 0z is quite a bit better. The trough axis is further east which leaves the NW in a cooler situation. Strong cold fronts at day 9 and day 12 on the GFS both drop 850s below 5C over Seattle. If this trend continues any warmth may be nearly done away with as the time frame narrows.

I don't think the 00z ensembles are out. Verbatim the 00z GFS operational is still relatively mild at the surface until the clown range.

 

Honestly, until that GOA vortex retrogrades and/or bifurcates, I think it'll be difficult to score any legitimately cool airmasses up there.

[Jesse]

I don't think the 00z ensembles are out. Verbatim the 00z GFS operational is still relatively mild at the surface until the clown range.

 

Honestly, until that GOA vortex retrogrades and/or bifurcates, I think it'll be difficult to score any legitimately cool airmasses up there.

In the first half of October a rainy pattern with an active jet can give us cool anoms.

[Front Ranger]

Ed Berry created a very interesting graphic to show just how insignificant the recent small increase in CO2 really is. He is brilliant when it comes to understanding the atmosphere and he thinks this all a bunch of BS.

I'd like to see Ed Berry and Cliff Mass in a cage match.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think the 00z ensembles are out. Verbatim the 00z GFS operational is still relatively mild at the surface until the clown range.

 

Honestly, until that GOA vortex retrogrades and/or bifurcates, I think it'll be difficult to score any legitimately cool airmasses up there.

 

This run actually shifts the trough axis eastward so it doesn't dog so much off the coast.  Certainly an improvement.  I expect more cooling to show up for the end of this week also.

[Phil]

In the first half of October a rainy pattern with an active jet can give us cool anoms.

Do you usually need more of a NW component for that? Given the mild nights that'd result?

 

The GFS looks cooler than average during the day, warmer than average at night.

[snow_wizard]

I'd like to see Ed Berry and Cliff Mass in a cage match.

 

That would be fun.  Ed Berry is pretty high up there in the field of atmospheric research.  He and a couple of others are basically the founding fathers of AAM research. 

[Front Ranger]

In the first half of October a rainy pattern with an active jet can give us cool anoms.

Yeah, there was really nothing all that warm in the 12z Euro pattern. Not seeing the type of pattern that provides a true torch like the last couple Octobers.

 

And it's really too soon to tell if the coming pattern will lock in or be progressive.

[snow_wizard]

Do you usually need more of a NW component for that? Given the mild nights that'd result?

 

The GFS looks cooler than average during the day, warmer than average at night.

 

As long as the thicknesses get low enough with good precip intensity it can get pretty cool.  This runs shows thicknesses getting into the 530s.

[Phil]

This run actually shifts the trough axis eastward so it doesn't dog so much off the coast. Certainly an improvement. I expect more cooling to show up for the end of this week also.

Looks like it retrogrades back offshore thereafter, though. I just think the underlying trough axis is poor.

 

I think you guys want a ridge exactly where that vortex is.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, there was really nothing all that warm in the 12z Euro pattern. Not seeing the type of pattern that provides a true torch like the last couple Octobers.

 

And it's really too soon to tell if the coming pattern will lock in or be progressive.

 

The end of the GFS looks like it could go to something good fairly quickly thereafter.    I feel much better than I did a couple of days ago.

[Jesse]

Do you usually need more of a NW component for that? Given the mild nights that'd result?

 

The GFS looks cooler than average during the day, warmer than average at night.

 

At least for the Portland area, average highs are still 65 or better through about mid month as average lows fall toward the mid-40s.

 

The pattern advertised for next week would probably mean a lot of 60/50 type days, which would be near to below average.

[Front Ranger]

The end of the GFS looks like it could go to something good fairly quickly thereafter. I feel much better than I did a couple of days ago.

I'm not sure those two sentences should go together.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like it retrogrades back offshore thereafter, though. I just think the underlying trough axis is poor.

 

I think you guys want a ridge exactly where that vortex is.

 

True.  On the other hand the week two pattern still has a better overall look to it than previous runs.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not sure those two sentences should go together.

 

I was referring to the entire run looking better.

[Phil]

The end of the GFS looks like it could go to something good fairly quickly thereafter. I feel much better than I did a couple of days ago.

Based on a single clown range GFS run? I'm looking for a retrogression or bifurcation of that jet max

[Phil]

Once the ensembles start hinting at large scale changes w/ some agreement, I'll jump on board. I think that'll have to wait a good 20-25 days, though.

[Jesse]

Once the ensembles start hinting at large scale changes w/ some agreement, I'll jump on board. I think that'll have to wait a good 20-25 days, though.

 

So you're calling a warm October?

[Phil]

I also think there's a good chance November features exactly the opposite pattern over the NPAC, with an early season Arctic outbreak over the US. Exactly where is TBD.

[snow_wizard]

This article must be some kind of a joke.  It is a repsonse to Ed Berry's skepticism on climate change.  This punk actually tries to imply Ed Berry is some kind of a hack.  The truth is Ed has forgotten more than this guy will ever know about atmospheric research.  Totall unbelievable.

 

http://www.dailyinterlake.com/members/opinion-a-scientist-s-response-to-ed-berry-s-climate/article_9f46cb44-cc7e-11e5-9150-6f7714cc2782.html

[Phil]

So you're calling a warm October?

I'm still thinking normalish overall. I saw the NPAC vortex pattern coming, but it's turning out stronger than I was anticipating.