October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did it all melt?

 

I was checking web cams to see the snow and can't find it.  

 

As of 6am this morning their AFD mentioned 4" already at the NWS office. 

[TT-SEA]

As of 6am this morning their AFD mentioned 4" already at the NWS office. 

 

 

I am sure it fell... really not doubting it      Its only 35 there so thought some would be left. 

 

I can also see it on the hills right above the city.

 

[Tundra]

It's been a fun few days tracking the Wind Storm even if it didn't live up to expectations for most. Now it's time to focus on colder weather. The newest edition of the 12z CFS shows an Arctic Blast around mid-November. A huge Block forms in Alaska allowing Arctic air to drop down over the PNW. It's also a good sign to see that SE ridge form.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/660/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/684/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/708/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/708/850th_nb.na.png

 

I know it's the CFS but it's a great sign that longer term models are showing this. We have to start from somewhere.

[Sometimesdylan]

That is downtown Juneau, it only had a couple inches that melted. Downtown Juneau is exposed to much warmer temps than "out the road". Still snowing at my house in Mendenhall Valley.

[TT-SEA]

That is downtown Juneau, it only had a couple inches that melted. Downtown Juneau is exposed to much warmer temps than "out the road". Still snowing at my house in Mendenhall Valley.

Nice.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's been a fun few days tracking the Wind Storm even if it didn't live up to expectations for most. Now it's time to focus on colder weather. The newest edition of the 12z CFS shows an Arctic Blast around mid-November. A huge Block forms in Alaska allowing Arctic air to drop down over the PNW. It's also a good sign to see that SE ridge form.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/660/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/684/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/708/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/708/850th_nb.na.png

 

I know it's the CFS but it's a great sign that longer term models are showing this. We have to start from somewhere.

 

I looked at the CFS this morning and it showed a lot of cold troughing from about Thanksgiving through December. No arctic air in that timeframe, but a lot of 1000' snow levels and probably some chances for lowland snow. Overall quite chilly. 

[Tundra]

I looked at the CFS this morning and it showed a lot of cold troughing from about Thanksgiving through December. No arctic air in that timeframe, but a lot of 1000' snow levels and probably some chances for lowland snow. Overall quite chilly. 

 

That's positive news. I think our best chances to see Wintry weather will be early on, starting in mid November and lasting throughout December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's positive news. I think our best chances to see Wintry weather will be early on, starting in mid November and lasting throughout December.

 

With a Nina I am not sure why you would think that. 

[Deweydog]

I still like the second half of November.

[snow_wizard]

That's positive news. I think our best chances to see Wintry weather will be early on, starting in mid November and lasting throughout December.

 

I think we have some chance at this being a winter where we finally get hit in the middle of it, but front loaded is still probably a bit more likely.  I would most like to see a sharp cold snap this month and then a mild November.

 

FWIW the last couple of GFS runs have looked chilly for week two.

[snow_wizard]

I looked at the CFS this morning and it showed a lot of cold troughing from about Thanksgiving through December. No arctic air in that timeframe, but a lot of 1000' snow levels and probably some chances for lowland snow. Overall quite chilly. 

 

There have been some fabulous runs for January lately also.  The ECMWF weeklies have looked pretty mild for November, but that could easily change.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think we have some chance at this being a winter where we finally get hit in the middle of it, but front loaded is still probably a bit more likely.  I would most like to see a sharp cold snap this month and then a mild November.

 

FWIW the last couple of GFS runs have looked chilly for week two.

 

I think November will be mild overall at least until about the 20th. I feeling a little reckless, like we might actually have a decent January. Very good chance of at least one good cold snap/lowland snow event this winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting little fact I just noticed about my location. The mean temp here is colder in March than it is in November. 

 

My average high so far this month is 57.2 average low 44.7. 

[TT-SEA]

IR satellite shows another massive plume of moisture.    It just keeps coming.   Crazy wet.

 

Hoping there is a reward ahead.

[snow_wizard]

I live in Juneau Alaska.

 

7.7 inches at sea level. First time we've had snow before Fairbanks and Anchorage since 1926.

 

Very impressive stat.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

IR satellite shows another massive plume of moisture.    It just keeps coming.   Crazy wet.

 

Hoping there is a reward ahead.

 

Tomorrow or later tonight this will become the 12th October with 10"+ of rain at my location. The last being 2012. 

[Bryant]

IR satellite shows another massive plume of moisture. It just keeps coming. Crazy wet.

 

Hoping there is a reward ahead.

Nice and dry up here, enjoy your rain!

[James Jones]

It's been a fun few days tracking the Wind Storm even if it didn't live up to expectations for most. Now it's time to focus on colder weather. The newest edition of the 12z CFS shows an Arctic Blast around mid-November. A huge Block forms in Alaska allowing Arctic air to drop down over the PNW. It's also a good sign to see that SE ridge form.

 

I know it's the CFS but it's a great sign that longer term models are showing this. We have to start from somewhere.

I'm already making plans for the inevitable November 1955 repeat. Looks like Portland is in the bulls-eye for precip too. Score!!!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Nice and dry up here, enjoy your rain!

 

 

It was quite a nice day... mostly dry with a fair amount of sun.  

 

Dark now.   Did not know it was raining until I looked at the radar.   Let it rain all night... don't care.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So here is the list of wettest Octobers (1938-present) at my location.

 

1) 1947

2) 1950

3) 1967

4) 1990

5) 2012

6) 1994

7) 1968

8) 1956

9) 1951

10) 1946

11) 1979

12) 2016

 

Looking at the extended models this October has a good shot at moving into the top 5. It would have to continue to be extremely wet to break the record of 17.92" set in October 1947.

 

Which of these are good ENSO matches?

[MossMan]

I still like the second half of November.

I would be ok with a Nov. 1985 redux!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It was quite a nice day... mostly dry with a fair amount of sun.  

 

Dark now.   Did not know it was raining until I looked at the radar.   Let it rain all night... don't care.  

 

I have noticed it has been much wetter here this month. 

[snow_wizard]

So here is the list of wettest Octobers (1938-present) at my location.

 

1) 1947

2) 1950

3) 1967

4) 1990

5) 2012

6) 1994

7) 1968

8) 1956

9) 1951

10) 1946

11) 1979

12) 2016

 

Looking at the extended models this October has a good shot at moving into the top 5. It would have to continue to be extremely wet to break the record of 17.92" set in October 1947.

 

Which of these are good ENSO matches?

 

1946 - Maybe

1950

1956

1967

2012

[snow_wizard]

I have noticed it has been much wetter here this month. 

 

It's been plenty wet here too.

[snow_wizard]

I would be ok with a Nov. 1985 redux!

 

That's about the only way I would want cold and snow in November.  It has happened too often lately and has proven that a good January is nearly impossible if we have an Arctic outbreak in November.

[snow_wizard]

Very interesting note about the point that was brought up about Juneau having snow before Anchorage and Fairbanks for the first time since 1926...

 

The winter of 1925-26 had a major El Nino and 1926-27 cold neutral ENSO.  1926-27 had two Arctic outbreaks providing yet another case of the winter following a major El Nino having Arctic air invade the NW.  The best Arctic blast was in January.

[Phil]

It's been a fun few days tracking the Wind Storm even if it didn't live up to expectations for most. Now it's time to focus on colder weather. The newest edition of the 12z CFS shows an Arctic Blast around mid-November. A huge Block forms in Alaska allowing Arctic air to drop down over the PNW. It's also a good sign to see that SE ridge form.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/660/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/684/500h_anom.na.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/708/500h_anom.na.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/708/850th_nb.na.png

 

I know it's the CFS but it's a great sign that longer term models are showing this. We have to start from somewhere.

I've been watching November for awhile..2010 redux?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1946 - Maybe

1950

1956

1967

2012

 

1967-68 was actually a really good winter up here...

 

January 1947 was good here too with a decent amount of snow and about a -4 monthly departure.

 

January 1951 had two lows of 4 here late in the month (March 51' was no slouch!)

 

We all know about January 1957.

 

And 2012-13 was not great here, but there was quite a bit of snow in December, and a cold January (Inversion caused.)

[Phil]

1946 - Maybe

1950

1956

1967

2012

Eliminating -QBO years leaves us with nothing except a borderline 1967/68, which was still +QBO @ 50mb.

[Phil]

All weak -ENSO/+QBO winters since 1950 include: 1959/60, 1961/62, 1964/65, 1966/67, 1978/79, 1985/86, 1995/96, 2008/09, and 2013/14. Just FWIW.

 

Most of these years were raging +PV/+NAM in October. Obviously, this year isn't following that trajectory so far.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 6 inches of mud in front of my barn is magnificent.

[snow_wizard]

Eliminating -QBO years leaves us with nothing except a borderline 1967/68, which was still +QBO @ 50mb.

 

Amazing.  Obviously another sign we are in a strange regime right now.  Late summer / early fall 1967 was a terrible 500mb match to this year so that leaves us with nothing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is interesting...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing.  Obviously another sign we are in a strange regime right now.  Late summer / early fall 1967 was a terrible 500mb match to this year so that leaves us with nothing.

 

Looking at the observed temps at my location in October 1967 it was very wet like this year, but much warmer... Must have been more SW flow

[TT-SEA]

This is interesting...

 

 

 

Crazy pattern.   Never heard of this place... looks like its finally raining there.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crazy pattern.   Never heard of this place... looks like its finally raining there.

 

 

October is their wettest Month with an average of about 22" of rain! 

[TT-SEA]

October is their wettest Month with an average of about 22" of rain! 

 

 

Now cross-reference their driest Octobers with our wettest Octobers and find years that match.

[Brennan]

All weak -ENSO/+QBO winters since 1950 include: 1959/60, 1961/62, 1964/65, 1966/67, 1978/79, 1985/86, 1995/96, 2008/09, and 2013/14. Just FWIW.

 

Most of these years were raging +PV/+NAM in October. Obviously, this year isn't following that trajectory so far.

You just listed like, all the best winters in Bellingham, 'minus a few.

[Brennan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Now cross-reference their driest Octobers with our wettest Octobers and find years that match.

 

The 12 wettest years including this year for my location. Yakutat was:

 

Above average: 2 years

Average: 1 year

below average: 8 years

 

No data in 1946